IMF應歡迎人民幣登上世界舞臺

The renminbi is on a seemingly inexorable march towards becoming a global currency. It is widely used in international trade and finance transactions. Now China wants the International Monetary Fund to label the renminbi an official reserve currency by including it in the exclusive group that makes up its unit of account, the Special Drawing Rights. That group comprises the dollar, the euro, the yen and sterling.

人民幣正在以一種看似不可阻擋的勢頭向成爲世界貨幣挺進。它在國際貿易和金融交易中得到廣泛使用。現在，中國希望國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)通過將人民幣納入構成其記賬單位——特別提款權(SDR)——的固定貨幣籃子，使人民幣成爲一種官方儲備貨幣。這個貨幣籃子由美元、歐元、日元和英鎊四種貨幣組成。

There are good reasons to welcome the renminbi’s rise. Its trajectory is closely correlated with banking and other reforms that will make China’s economy more market friendly. These are necessary to establish a more balanced and less-risky growth path, one that is less dependent on investment, generates more employment and reduces environmental degradation. Economic reformers in China have built public support for the idea that a great economic power should be home to an important international currency.

目前有充分理由歡迎人民幣崛起。人民幣的崛起軌跡與中國銀行業及其他領域的改革密切相關，這些改革將增強中國經濟的市場友好性。這些改革對於確立一條更加平衡、風險更低的增長路徑是必需的，這條路徑對投資不那麼依賴，可以創造更多就業並減輕環境惡化。中國的經濟改革者已經培養了公衆對這樣一種理念的支持，即一個經濟強國應該擁有一種重要的世界貨幣。

For this to happen, the country must undertake a series of domestic reforms: it needs a better and well-regulated banking system; a broader range of financial markets, including basic currency derivatives; fewer restrictions on the flow of capital in and out of the economy; and a more flexible exchange rate.

要實現這一目標，中國必須進行一系列國內改革：它需要一個更完善、監管良好的銀行系統；品種更豐富的金融市場，包括基本的外匯衍生品；減少對資本流入和流出的限制；以及更靈活的匯率。

These reforms will permit a more efficient allocation of domestic savings to sectors that can generate higher employment and productivity growth. A better financial system will give small and medium-sized enterprises, especially those in the services sector, increased access to credit. Allowing freer capital outflows is already giving households opportunities to diversify their savings and secure better returns.

這些改革將使國內儲蓄更高效地分配到能夠創造更多就業和更高生產率增長的行業。一個更完善的金融體系將給予（尤其是服務業的）中小型企業更多獲得貸款的機會。部分放鬆資本流出管制，已經正在給中國家庭帶來將儲蓄進行分散投資並獲得更高回報的機會。

But there is fierce political opposition to these reforms, which challenge the privileges of powerful vested interests. To overcome the resistance, the government has taken up the rallying cry of making the renminbi a global currency and is ploughing ahead with its reforms.

但針對這些挑戰強大既得利益特權的改革，政治上的反對非常激烈。爲了克服改革的阻力，中國政府已經喊出“讓人民幣成爲世界貨幣”的戰鬥口號，正馬不停蹄地推進改革。

To take one example: the People’s Bank of China has made a commitment to eliminate the ceiling on interest rates on bank deposits this year. This will force banks to compete for deposits, giving households a better return on their savings. Large lenders have resisted, wary of competition from smaller rivals. The central bank has fought back, noting that China needs fully market-determined interest rates for the renminbi to become a reserve currency.

一個例子是：中國央行(PBoC)表示，今年有很大概率將取消銀行存款利率上限。這將迫使銀行相互競爭以吸收存款，讓家庭獲得更高的儲蓄回報。由於擔心來自規模較小銀行的競爭，大型銀行一直在抵制這一改革。央行已進行回擊，指出要使人民幣成爲儲備貨幣，中國需要完全由市場決定利率。

Reformers in China recognise that the renminbi’s prominence in global finance is a mixed blessing. It would become harder to control the currency’s value but its official recognition as a reserve currency would be an important validation of reform efforts. For their part, the US government and others should welcome the renminbi’s rise.

中國的改革者承認，人民幣在全球金融中的重要地位有利也有弊。控制人民幣匯率將變得更加困難，但正式承認人民幣爲儲備貨幣將是對中國改革努力的重要認可。對美國及其他國家的政府來說，應該歡迎人民幣的崛起。

A more open capital account makes it harder for the central bank to manage or “manipulate” the value of its currency, countering US concerns that Chinese exporters have an unfair advantage from a cheap currency. Stronger demand for the currency will mean a higher exchange rate, making imported goods cheaper for Chinese consumers and giving a leg up to foreign exporters.

一個更加開放的資本賬戶將使中國央行更難於管理或“操縱”人民幣匯率，打消美國對中國出口商從廉價貨幣中獲得不公平優勢的擔憂。對人民幣更強勁的需求意味着更高的匯率，使中國消費者可以買到更便宜的進口商品，並對外國出口商起到提振作用。

Opening up China’s financial market could create opportunities for foreign companies, from banks to insurers. With a more flexible exchange rate, China will no longer accumulate large foreign exchange reserves, reducing its contribution to global current account imbalances. The IMF’s imprimatur is nice to have but ultimately it is market forces that will drive the renminbi’s adoption as a reserve currency. If foreign investors, including central banks, see the renminbi as a currency worth holding, they will hold it. Indeed, many countries hold small amounts in their foreign exchange portfolios.

開放中國金融市場能夠爲從銀行到保險公司的各類外國企業創造機會。更靈活的匯率將使中國不再積累大量外匯儲備，減少其對全球經常賬戶失衡的貢獻。IMF的認可固然值得高興，但最終驅動人民幣被採納爲儲備貨幣的將是市場力量。如果外國投資者（包括各央行）認爲人民幣值得持有，它們就會持有人民幣。實際上，很多國家在自己的外匯投資組合中持有少量人民幣。

There is little prospect, however, that the renminbi will become a dominant global reserve currency. Fundamental political and legal reforms, needed to build trust among foreign investors, are not on the cards. The dollar’s position is secure for now.

不過，人民幣成爲占主導地位的全球儲備貨幣可能性不大。培養外國投資者對人民幣的信任需要從根本上進行政治和司法改革，而這樣的改革不可能出現。目前看來，美元的地位是安全的。

Official validation of the renminbi’s rise is important for the IMF. It would avoid another knock to the institution’s legitimacy, which is shaky given the stalling of reforms to give emerging economies their rightful voting share.

正式認可人民幣崛起，對於IMF來說很重要。這將避免該機構的合法性再次遭到打擊，因遲遲沒有進行改革、以給予新興經濟體應得的投票權，IMF的合法性已遭到質疑。

For China and others, a negative ruling on reserve currency status could symbolise their concerns that the IMF remains an institution run by and for the benefit of advanced economies. A positive outcome will give Beijing a vested interest in maintaining the fund’s primacy in international finance.

對中國和其他國家來說， IMF不認可人民幣儲備貨幣地位將凸顯它們的擔憂，即IMF仍是一個由發達經濟體管理併爲其利益服務的機構。而IMF認可人民幣儲備貨幣地位將使中國政府成爲既得利益者，維護IMF在國際金融中的首要地位將保住這份既得利益。

The renminbi’s rise could be a constructive force for change in China and the international monetary system. It should be embraced.

人民幣的崛起可以成爲促進中國及國際貨幣體系變革的建設性力量，應當受到歡迎。

The writer is a professor at Cornell University, a fellow at the Brookings Institution and former head of the IMF’s China division

本文作者是康奈爾大學(Cornell University)教授、布魯金斯學會(Brookings Institution)研究員以及IMF中國部前負責人