殼牌收購BG仍面臨多重阻礙

Royal Dutch Shell’s £55bn bid for BG Group faces any number of hurdles, including volatile oil prices and the risk of a counterbid, but the biggest of all may prove to be what one competition lawyer calls the “black box” that is China’s Ministry of Commerce, the country’s opaque antitrust regulator.

荷蘭皇家殼牌(Royal Dutch Shell)出價550億英鎊收購英國天然氣集團(BG Group)的交易將面臨許多障礙，包括油價波動以及其他公司競購的風險，但最大障礙或許將是一位反壟斷律師所說的“黑箱”——不透明的反壟斷監管機構中國商務部。

Regulatory scrutiny of the deal — the biggest in the energy sector for more than a decade — will take months. Competition authorities in Australia, Brazil, China and Brussels are among those expected to examine the size and reach of the combined company, which is set to be the world’s biggest supplier of liquefied natural gas.

對於這筆10多年來能源業中規模最大的交易，監管機構的審查將持續數月。預計澳大利亞、巴西、中國和歐盟等地的競爭監管當局都將審查合併後公司的規模和影響。兩家公司合併後將成爲世界最大液化天然氣(LNG)供應商。

Some could wave it through with minimum fuss. For the European Commission, traditionally more sensitive to the impact on prices for consumers, the BG takeover is regarded as unlikely to raise the concerns that a “downstream” merger, between say Shell and BP, might.

一些競爭監管當局可能痛快放行。歐盟委員會(European Commission)傳統上對消費者終端價格所受的影響更爲敏感，BG收購案被認爲不太可能引發“下游”併購案——比如殼牌和英國石油(BP)——可能引發的那種憂慮。

But for Beijing, a big LNG importer, the combination will pose a different set of questions, particularly over security of supply and the impact on heavy industry.

但對中國這樣的液化天然氣進口大國來說，殼牌和BG的合併將帶來截然不同的一系列問題，尤其是在供應安全和對重工業的影響方面。

With LNG deliveries of 45m tonnes last year, Shell and BG already account for almost 20 per cent of the global market — BG alone was poised to become China’s biggest LNG supplier by 2017. Another 20m tonnes a year in liquefaction capacity is expected to come online by 2018.

去年殼牌和BG合計輸送了4500萬噸液化天然氣，佔全球市場近20%的份額——其中BG已經定好目標，爭取在2017年成爲中國最大的液化天然氣供應商。到2018年，二者的液化天然氣產能有望再提高2000萬噸。

China has long applied wider criteria to competition tests, taking in industrial policy. Moreover, its approval process is known to be unpredictable. As a result, lawyers say, the Ministry of Commerce — known as Mofcom — is the biggest uncertainty surrounding the deal.

長期以來，中國在競爭審查方面應用的標準較爲寬泛，並將行業政策納入考慮。此外，其審批過程被認爲不可預測。因此，律師們表示中國商務部將是這筆交易中最大的不確定因素。

China could well approve the takeover, but demand concessions first, as it did with the $64bn natural resources merger between Glencore and Xstrata two years ago.

中國很可能批准這起收購案，但會要求對方首先做出讓步，就如兩年前中國批准自然資源領域價值640億美元的併購案——嘉能可(Glencore)和斯特拉塔(Xstrata)——那樣。

“The Chinese have got them over a barrel,” says one senior oil industry executive. “I would be astonished if there is not a request to sell one of their grade one LNG assets.”

“它們受到中國的牽制，”一位資深石油行業高管說，“如果中國沒有要求它們出售一處優質液化天然氣資產，我會感到非常驚訝。”

Beijing cleared the Glencore-Xstrata deal only after the trading house agreed to sell the Las Bambas mining project in Peru to assuage Chinese concerns about the enlarged group’s influence in the copper market. The eventual buyers were a group of Chinese companies led by Minmetals.

北京批准嘉能可和斯特拉塔併購案的前提條件是嘉能可同意出售祕魯的拉斯邦巴斯(Las Bambas)銅礦項目，以消除中國對合並後公司在銅市場上影響力過大的擔憂。最終該項目賣給了以中國五礦(Minmetals)爲首的一批中國企業。

Competition lawyers also point to Mofcom demanding “behavioural remedies” before approving mergers. One recent example came in Thermo Fisher Scientific’s $13.6bn acquisition of Life Technologies. China asked for price reductions on certain products and commitments on supply, as well as requiring the sale of businesses.

反壟斷律師還指出中國商務部會在批准併購案前要求“行爲補償”。最近的一個例子是賽默飛世爾科技(Thermo Fisher Scientific)斥資136億美元收購Life Technologies的交易。中國要求它們下調一些產品的價格、做出供應承諾及出售一些業務。

Shell and BG will be an LNG behemoth. Assuming no asset sales, the combined group will have an unrivalled mix of equity production — including in Qatar, Oman, Russia, Malaysia, Brunei, Australia, Peru, Trinidad and Nigeria — supply contracts, trading positions and transport. It also has significant capacity to convert supercooled LNG back into gas.

殼牌和BG將成爲液化天然氣行業的巨擘。假設不出售資產，二者合併後的公司將擁有無可匹敵的供應合約、交易頭寸、運輸能力以及權益產能——分佈在卡塔爾、阿曼、俄羅斯、馬來西亞、文萊、澳大利亞、祕魯，特立尼達和多巴哥及尼日利亞等多個地方。合併後公司還具備將超冷液化天然氣重新轉換爲天然氣的巨大產能。

“The deal creates by far the biggest LNG producer in the world, combining the first and the fifth by market share,” says Ed Cox, ‎editor of Global LNG Markets at ICIS, which provides pricing information and market analysis.

安迅思(ICIS)《全球液化天然氣市場》主編埃德•考克斯(Ed Cox)說：“這一交易將市場份額分別爲第一名和第五名的兩家公司合併到一起，打造出世界上規模最大的液化天然氣生產商。”安迅思是價格信息和市場分析提供商。

Scale will be an advantage. “In a market where there is a lot of new production appearing, Shell-BG is better placed. It will have a greater geographical reach and access to more vessels, which means shorter distances for delivery. The proximity to buyers will be an advantage . . . whoever can capture the best margins will be king,” he says.

規模將是個優勢。他說：“在一個新產能不斷出現的市場中，殼牌-BG處於有利地位。合併後的新公司將覆蓋更廣地理範圍，擁有更多可用船隻，這意味着運輸距離將縮短。靠近買家將是個優勢……能夠獲取最優利潤率的公司將成爲王者。”

Indeed, that thinking appears to be a driver behind the deal. Ben van Beurden, Shell’s chief executive, wants to cut costs — and create value — by combining the two groups’ shipping operations and LNG trading platforms. Its ability to improve margins will be crucial as the LNG industry becomes more of a “spot” market, says Thierry Bros, analyst for Société Générale. In the longer run, success could give Shell-BG influence over how the market develops.

事實上，上述想法似乎就是產生這樁交易的動機。殼牌首席執行官範伯登(Ben van Beurden)希望通過合併兩家公司的船運業務和液化天然氣交易平臺來削減成本、創造價值。法國興業銀行(Société Générale)分析師蒂埃裏•布羅斯(Thierry Bros)表示，天然氣行業正日益成爲一個“現貨”市場，因此該公司提高利潤率的能力將至關重要。長遠而言，假如能夠做到這一點，殼牌-BG將擁有左右市場走向的能力。

“They can’t dictate prices at the moment. But if the oil indexation link [long-term supply contracts linked to the price of oil] is broken, then the largest producers will have the biggest say and dictate the course the market takes,” says one Australia-based LNG analyst.

一名駐澳大利亞的液化天然氣分析師表示：“眼下他們無法左右價格。但假如（將遠期供應合同與油價聯繫起來的）石油指數化聯繫斷裂，那麼最大的生產商將擁有最大話語權，能夠左右市場走向。”

China will be weighing the implications of the merged company’s size and potential pricing power. “I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a mix of behavioural and capacity divestiture. That could entail, for example, some sort of undertaking by the merged Shell-BG not to increase prices for Chinese customers,” says a lawyer.

中國將權衡合併後新公司規模和潛在定價權的影響。一名律師說：“假如出現一些行爲和產能方面的限制，我不會感到驚訝。這可能會導致一些結果，比如合併後的殼牌-BG做出某種形式的保證，確保不提高中國消費者所需支付的價格。”

Mofcom declined to comment. The ministry usually makes recommendations for any asset sell-offs based on feedback from Chinese state-owned enterprises. BG’s existing gas partnerships with Cnooc and Shell’s global upstream co-operation with CNPC could make the approval process smoother.

中國商務部拒絕置評。通常而言，該部門會根據一些中國國企的反饋意見就資產出售提出建議。BG與中海油(Cnooc)已有的天然氣業務合作關係、以及殼牌與中國石油天然氣集團(CNPC)在全球上游業務的合作，可能會有助於這起合併交易在中國商務部較爲順利地獲批。

The process will begin when Shell and BG formally notify Beijing of the deal. This starts a 180-day clock, with up to three phases to the review. Unlike other authorities, though, Mofcom offers very little informal guidance. It can take a long time replying to the simplest questions and demand meetings “at the drop of a hat”, says one lawyer.

審批流程將從殼牌和BG正式向北京方面申報這一交易那一刻開始。審批時限爲180天，最多分三個階段。不過，與其他監管當局不同，中國商務部很少提供什麼非正式指導意見。一名律師說，中國商務部回覆最簡單的問題也可能要花很長時間，並且會要求“馬上”面談。

“The problem with Mofcom is a lack of transparency. It’s very difficult to know what is going on or get a steer from them,” adds another. Long-running probes have led in the past to companies pulling and refiling merger plans.

另一名律師說：“中國商務部的問題是缺乏透明度。很難知道事情進展如何，也很難從他們那裏得到指導。”曠日持久的調查在以往曾導致企業不得不取消合併計劃、或重新提交申請。

Mr van Beurden is taking no chances: he has already flown to China to outline the deal. Shell says: “The deal is pro-competitive. While we expect the usual thorough and professional review by the relevant antitrust and other regulatory authorities, we are confident that the deal will receive the necessary approvals.”

範伯登絲毫不敢大意：他已飛往中國指導該交易。殼牌表示：“這筆交易是促進競爭的。儘管我們預計相關反壟斷機構和其他監管當局會照例進行徹底而專業的調查，但我們有信心這筆交易將獲得必要的批准。”