歐元區成員國該如何應對經濟挑戰

In the second quarter of this year, real domestic demand in the eurozone was 5 per cent lower than in the first quarter of 2008. The eurozone’s unemployment rate has risen by just under 5 percentage points since 2008. In the year to July 2014, consumer price inflation in the eurozone was 0.4 per cent. From these telling facts one can conclude three simple things: the eurozone is in a depression; lack of demand has played a crucial role; and the European Central Bank has failed to deliver on its own price-stability target. This is not just sad. It is dangerous. It is folly to assume continued stability if economic performance does not improve.

與2008年一季度相比，今年第二季度歐元區實際內需下降了5%。自2008年以來，歐元區失業率上升了近5個百分點。在截止2014年7月的一年裏，歐元區消費者價格指數上漲0.4%。人們可以從這些明顯的事實推斷出3個簡單的結論：歐元區經濟不景氣；需求不足是關鍵因素；歐洲央行(ECB)未能完成其穩定價格的目標。這不僅令人遺憾，而且還很危險。如果經濟表現沒有改善的話，認爲物價能夠保持穩定是愚蠢的。

A necessary, though not sufficient, condition for grappling with these challenges is understanding them. In this regard, Mario Draghi, president of the ECB, and the one senior eurozone policy maker who shows grasp of the issues, made a vital contribution at this year’s Jackson Hole symposium. Two points, in particular, need stressing. First, he stated that “we need action on both sides of the economy: aggregate demand policies have to be accompanied by national structural policies”. Second, he made a new promise: he remarked, off text, that the ECB “will use all the available instruments needed to ensure price stability in the medium term.”

解決這些挑戰的一個必要（儘管並非充分）條件是要理解它們。就這一點而言，一位對這些問題表現出深刻理解的歐元區資深政策制定者——歐洲央行行長馬里奧•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)在今年的傑克遜霍爾(Jackson Hole)研討會上發表了重要的言論。他所提到的兩點尤其值得強調。第一，德拉吉表示，“我們需要從經濟的兩方面採取行動：總需求政策必須伴隨着各國的結構性政策”。第二，他做出了一項新承諾：他在脫稿演講中說道，歐洲央行“將動用一切可用工具以確保中期物價穩定”。

Choirs of angels must have sung over the statement that the eurozone has a problem with demand. Hitherto, eurozone orthodoxy has treated this truth as unmentionable. No less important might be the promise of action. It reminds us of the celebrated “Whatever it takes”, delivered by Mr Draghi in London in July 2012. This led to the announcement of the ECB’s outright monetary transactions programme, which defeated pervasive panic without firing a shot. Astonishingly, yields on Italian and Spanish 10-year debt have fallen from 6.3 per cent and 7.0 per cent, respectively, at the beginning of August 2012, to a mere 2.3 and 2.1 per cent early this month. That is below the yield on UK gilts.

“天使合唱團”必定對歐元區存在需求問題的說法議論紛紛。迄今爲止，歐元區的正統觀點是不能提及這樣的事實。同樣重要的或許是關於採取行動的承諾。它讓我們想起2012年7月德拉吉在倫敦說的那句著名的“不惜任何代價”。在那之後，歐洲央行宣佈了“直接貨幣交易”(OMT)計劃，從而在不費一槍一彈的情況下消除了無處不在的恐慌。令人驚奇的是，意大利和西班牙的十年期國債收益率分別從2012年8月初的6.3%和7.0%，下降至本月初的2.3%和2.1%，比英國國債的收益率還要低。

At Jackson Hole Mr Draghi stated he is “confident” that the package of measures announced in June and now being implemented will deliver the “intended boost to demand”. It is reasonable to be sceptical. In the six years to the second quarter of 2014, nominal demand rose a mere 2 per cent. Credit channels remain impaired. Fiscal policy also continues to tighten, even though interest rates are at the zero bound: the OECD has forecast that the cyclically adjusted fiscal deficit of the eurozone would shrink from a mere 1.4 per cent in 2013 to an even more austere 0.9 per cent in 2014. Huge divergences in competitiveness remain. These are more difficult to rectify when inflation is so low. This is forcing vulnerable countries into deflation, which raises the real level of their debt. Meanwhile, creditworthy core countries are black holes for demand: this year Germany’s current account surplus might be as big as 8 per cent of gross domestic product.

德拉吉在傑克遜霍爾研討會上指出，他“確信”，今年6月宣佈、目前已在實施的一攬子措施將會對“需求產生預期中的提振”。人們有理由對此感到懷疑。在截至2014年第二季度的6年裏，名義需求僅增長2%。信貸渠道仍未恢復健康。財政政策也繼續收緊，即便利率接近於零：經濟合作組織(OECD)預測，2014年，經週期性調整後，歐元區財政赤字與GDP的比率將從2013年的1.4%進一步收縮至0.9%。歐元區各國競爭力依然存在顯著差異。在通脹水平如此低的時期，這些問題更加難以解決。它正使那些容易遭受衝擊的歐元區國家陷入通縮，提高了它們的實際負債水平。與此同時，信用程度高的歐元區核心國家成爲需求“黑洞”：今年德國經常賬戶盈餘可能高達GDP的8%。

Last week the ECB promised to purchase a broad portfolio of “simple and transparent asset-backed securities”. This, it hopes, will improve credit intermediation inside the eurozone. It also hopes that, through this and other programmes it has announced, it will be able to expand its balance sheet back to where it was two years ago. This makes sense. It was an error to let it shrink by about 10 per cent of eurozone GDP when other central banks, with considerably smaller problems than the eurozone’s to deal with, were avoiding premature withdrawal of such support (see chart). Moreover, the range of measures taken reinforce the ECB’s forward guidance. It has locked itself into ultra-accommodative monetary policies for years, as it should.

歐洲央行近期承諾購買“簡單透明的資產支持證券(ABS)”的寬泛組合。它希望，這將改善歐元區內部的信用媒介。它還希望，通過該購債項目和其他已經宣佈的項目，歐洲央行將能夠將資產負債表的規模擴大至兩年前的水平。這很明智。之前，在其他央行（它們的問題遠小於歐元區要處理的問題）正避免過早退出此類支持之際（見圖表），讓歐洲央行資產負債表規模收縮相當於歐元區GDP的10%則是錯誤的。此外，歐洲央行出臺的一系列措施強化了其前瞻性指引的效力。歐洲央行多年來堅持極度寬鬆的貨幣政策，它理應如此。

Yet, despite all these actions, the interlocking problems of the eurozone are unlikely to be resolved soon. Indeed even the ECB forecasts no more than feeble growth ahead. So, should the ECB do more? And what, above all, do other policy makers need to do in support?

然而，儘管採取了所有這些行動，歐元區錯綜複雜的問題也不太可能在短期內得到解決。實際上，即便是歐洲央行也預計未來最多隻會溫和增長。那麼，歐洲央行應該出臺更多舉措嗎？最重要的是，其他政策制定者需要提供什麼樣的支持？

The immediate question is whether the ECB should begin a programme of outright quantitative easing by buying government bonds, presumably in proportion to shares of member countries in eurozone GDP. In a blog post in July, senior officials of the International Monetary Fund argued that such QE would be effective. It would, they argued, reinforce the credibility of the ECB target and have important effects on the prices of financial assets, including bonds and equities, and probably on exchange rates, too.

一個迫在眉睫的問題是，歐洲央行是否應該購買政府債券——假設按照成員國佔歐元區GDP的比重來購買——從而啓動直接量化寬鬆政策？國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的高官們在今年7月的一篇博文中指出，此類QE將是有效的。他們說，這將讓歐洲央行的目標更加可信，並對包括債券和股票（很可能還有匯率）在內的金融資產價格產生重要影響。

I agree that it should be tried. The current situation is too dire for policy makers to eschew such a valuable instrument. But declines in bond yields have already been so dramatic that QE’s effects would no longer be as startling as they would have been two years ago. Furthermore, it is clear that the ECB would be taking on credit risk. It would be charged with monetary financing of governments. I believe it should go ahead. But the row between northern and southern Europe would surely be deafening.

我贊同歐洲央行應該嘗試量化寬鬆。對政策制定者來說，當前局勢極爲嚴峻，因此不可避免地要動用這項非常有用的工具。但債券收益率已經大幅下降，QE將不再有兩年前那麼令人驚豔的效果。此外，歐洲央行顯然將會承擔信用風險。它將因爲對政府進行貨幣融資而受到指責。我認爲歐洲央行應該推出QE。但歐洲南北之間的爭吵肯定會白熱化。

What else is left? One possibility, suggested in Mr Draghi’s speech, is active use of fiscal policy. Ideally, there should be a mixture of higher public investments and lower taxes, particularly in countries with room for fiscal manoeuvre. The overall fiscal stance is too tight, with a deficit forecast by the OECD at just 2.5 per cent of GDP in a deep slump. In return, as Mr Draghi demands, countries need to embrace serious reforms, to raise supply potential – and, by stimulating investment, demand as well. A determination to use all instruments possible to raise demand, enhance supply potential and improve competitiveness, where necessary, is clearly where the eurozone must try to go. The new European Commission needs to take a stand for common sense and growth, instead of insisting on misery yet again.

此外還可以採取什麼舉措？從德拉吉的演講中可以看出，一個可能是積極運用財政政策。理想的做法應該是增加公共投資和減稅並行，尤其是在仍有財政調整空間的國家。財政立場總體而言過於緊縮——經合組織預計，在發生深度衰退的情況下，財政赤字與GDP的比率也將僅爲2.5%。正如德拉吉所要求的那樣，歐元區各國需要大力改革，以提高供給潛力，以及通過刺激投資來促進需求。德拉吉決心在必要時動用一切可用工具來擴大需求、增強供給潛力和提高競爭力，這顯然正是歐元區必須努力做到的事情。新一屆歐盟委員會(European Commission)需要維護常識和增長，而不是再次堅持吃苦政策。

This is not just a matter of economics. The capacity of the peoples of member states to tolerate high unemployment and deep slumps has been impressive. But it cannot be unlimited. If that is what the powers that be continue to advocate, the result will probably be a populist reaction. This, sadly, is what we are seeing in Scotland. It is what we are soon likely to see elsewhere. Who is sure Marine Le Pen, leader of the far right National Front party, will not be the next president of France? Who would follow Matteo Renzi, Italy’s prime minister, if he failed? Yes, these member states need to act. But they surely need support. Mr Draghi has shown the way. The eurozone must follow.

這不僅僅是經濟層面的問題。歐元區成員國的民衆對高失業率和深度衰退的忍受力令人印象深刻，但這種忍受力不可能是無止境的。如果大國持續倡導民衆忍受，很可能就會引發民粹主義的反應。遺憾的是，這正是我們在蘇格蘭看到的結果。我們可能很快在其他地方也能看到這種結果。誰能保證極右翼政黨國民陣線(National Front)黨魁馬琳•勒龐(Marine Le Pen)不會成爲法國下一任總統？一旦意大利總理馬泰奧•倫齊(Matteo Renzi)下臺，誰會接替他？沒錯，這些歐元區成員國需要採取行動。但它們肯定需要支持。德拉吉已經指明瞭道路。歐元區應當遵循這一路線。