美下屆政府恐遇嚴峻經濟挑戰
A panel of leading economists at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace says whoever wins the 2012 election has his work cut out. Whether President Barack Obama wins a second term or Americans decide change is necessary, the economists say the next administration faces an uphill challenge. Among them are persistently high unemployment, a surging national debt and the inability of political leaders to agree on very much.
卡內基國際和平基金會的一個經濟專家小組稱，不管誰贏得2012年美國總統大選，都將面臨既定的任務。無論奧巴馬總統是否能贏得第二個總統任期，無論美國民衆是否認爲有必要作出改變，這些經濟學家說，下一屆美國政府都將面臨艱難的挑戰。這些挑戰包括，失業率居高不下，國家債務猛增，以及政治領袖難以達成一致。
"Under my administration, America is producing more oil today than at any time in the last eight years," said Obama.
奧巴馬總統說：“在我的政府執政期間，美國目前的產油量比過去八年裏的任何時候都要多。”
"Since the president [Obama] has been president, the cost of gasoline has doubled," said former Massachusetts governor and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney.
共和黨總統參選人米特•羅姆尼說：“自奧巴馬擔任總統以來，汽油價格已上漲了一倍。”
Soaring gasoline prices
Even as America's political leaders argue over who has the better energy policy, most economists say there's little anyone can do in the short term to lower gasoline prices.
儘管美國的政治領袖就誰的能源政策更好爭論不休，但大多數經濟學家說，短期內任何人都難以使汽油價格下降。
The same goes for fixing Europe's debt crisis - or the slowdown in Chinese manufacturing.
But a panel of economic experts says there's no shortage of domestic problems that require immediate attention. The housing market remains weak. Income inequality in the U.S. is now among the highest in the world. And despite a slowly improving job picture, labor economist Ron Blackwell said nearly one in five Americans is either unemployed or underemployed.
不過，一個經濟專家組指出，美國國內不乏一些需要迫切關注的問題：例如房地產市場依然疲弱，以及美國是世界上收入不平等最嚴重的國家之一等等。儘管就業前景緩慢改善，勞動經濟學專家羅恩•布萊克威爾說，美國有將近五分之一的人失業或者未充分就業。
"Whatever it means economically, this is socially and politically unsustainable," he said.
他說：“不管這在經濟上意味着什麼，這在社會和政治上來講是不可持續的。”
Also unsustainable is the nation's rising debt, now approaching $15 trillion.
同樣不可持續的還有美國日益膨脹的債務，目前美國的債務已達到15萬億美元。
Add to that the increasing burden on American taxpayers as millions of baby boomers - those born between 1946 and 1964 - reach retirement age.
還有一個問題是，隨着出生於1946到1964年期間的數百萬美國嬰兒潮一代達到退休年齡，納稅人的負擔將日益加重。
"This is going to be 40,000 per person in today's dollars in about 15 years. Multiply that by 7 to 8 million baby boomers - you're talking about $3 trillion per year or so in today's dollars, each year to pay the baby boomers their Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid [health] benefits," said economist Laurence Kotlikoff.
經濟學家勞倫斯•柯特利科夫說：“按目前的美元計算，在今後大約15年裏，每人的開支將爲4萬美元，再乘以嬰兒潮人數700萬到800萬，每年用於嬰兒潮一代的社會安全福利、聯邦醫療保險(Medicare)和醫療補助(Medicaid)福利支出將達到約3萬億美元。”Seeking elusive compromise
It's a scenario Kotlikoff said will eventually bankrupt the country if political leaders do nothing. But finding agreement will be difficult.
柯特利科夫說，如果政治領袖不採取行動，上述情況終將令國家破產。但是，政治領袖很難達成協議。
With the majority of election spending now being financed by the top one half of one percent of the American population, former U.S. undersecretary of Commerce Robert Shapiro said a handful of wealthy donors can now dictate who gets what done in Congress.
鑑於當前的大部分競選經費是由美國人口中最富裕的0.5%的人資助的，美國前商務部副部長羅伯特•夏皮洛說，一小撮資助競選的富人可以干預國會的決策。
"What that is doing is exacerbating a polarization, which has developed in the last 15 years - and a polarization that is particularly dangerous because it's a polarization that coincides with a nearly even division of the country," said Shapiro.
他說：“這使得極端化問題加劇，過去15年來出現了政治極端化，而美國的這種極端化尤其危險，因爲這種極端化同時伴隨着近乎勢均力敵的分歧力量。”
While the panel insists the slowly recovering U.S. economy remains among the most dynamic and most resilient in the world - Shapiro said today's highly contentious climate could lead to political paralysis on the most important economic issues of the day.
儘管這個經濟專家組堅稱，經濟復甦緩慢的美國仍是世界上最有活力、最具彈性的經濟體之一，但夏皮洛說，如今的極端化氛圍可能會使美國在當前最重要的經濟問題上陷入政治癱瘓。
