四大因素可能導致蘋果步微軟後塵大綱

Apple Inc., welcome to stock-market purgatory.
蘋果公司(Apple Inc.)的股票將在市場上遭受磨難。

That's essentially the view Barclays analysts took Wednesday in downgrading the iPhone and iPad maker to equal weight from overweight. The firm predicts the stock will remain rangebound for at least the next year, and could suffer growing pains similar to the ones software giant Microsoft Corp. experienced when it transitioned into a mature, value stock.
這基本上就是巴克萊(Barclays)分析師週三將蘋果公司的評級從增持下調至中性時所持的觀點。該行預計，至少在未來一年，蘋果的股價都將保持區間波動，而且可能承受越來越大的壓力，類似於微軟(Microsoft Co.)的股票在向一隻成熟的價值股轉變時所遭遇的情況。

'Frankly, we just couldn't quite bring ourselves to use smart watches or TVs as reasons to raise numbers--nor were we fully convinced that these products could move the needle like new categories did in the old days,' Barclays wrote to clients. 'As a result, we believe it is time to step aside, given a maturing smart phone market.'
巴克萊在給客戶的報告中寫道，坦率說，我們不能僅憑智能手錶或智能電視就上調預期，我們也不太相信這些產品可以像新產品在過去那樣產生決定性作用；因此，鑑於智能手機市場日趨成熟，我們相信現在是投資者迴避的時候。

Apple shares recently fell 1.3% to $530.50. The stock is up about 20% over the past 12 months, although it remains well off its record high above $700 hit in September 2012.
蘋果的股價最近下跌了1.3%，至530.50美元。該股在過去12個月上漲了約20%，但仍遠低於其在2012年9月創下的逾700美元的紀錄高點。

One of the bullish views on Apple in recent months has been the company's relatively cheap valuation compared to its peers. It trades at about 12 times future earnings, according to FactSet, less than the price-to-earnings ratios of Microsoft, Google Inc. and Facebook Inc.
最近幾個月，看好蘋果股票的觀點之一就是該股的估值與同類股相比較爲便宜。FactSet的數據顯示，蘋果的預期市盈率約爲12倍，低於微軟、谷歌(Google Inc.)和Facebook Inc.。

Barclays isn't convinced. 'We believe the valuation argument is becoming less and less helpful,' the firm said. 'Furthermore, we look at a valuation analogy vs. Microsoft from 2000 to about 2010 and see no precedent that large-size tech companies simply start to broadly outperform again after a tough year or two if the law of large numbers is catching up to them and margins have peaked.'
巴克萊並不認同這種看法。該行稱，我們相信估值偏低的說法會越來越沒有意義。另外，我們對2000年至2010前後的蘋果與微軟的估值進行了對比，發現如果符合大數定律且利潤率已達到峯值，沒有大型科技公司在度過艱難的一兩年後能再度表現出衆的先例。

Here's a chart overlaying Microsoft's performance from 1998 through the present compared to Apple's performance since 2011.
下面這張圖將1998年至今的微軟股價表現與2011年至今的蘋果股價表現進行了對比。Barclays offered four similarities between Apple now and Microsoft back then:
巴克萊列舉了蘋果公司與微軟的四點相似之處：

Market Cap: Microsoft's market cap peaked at about $620 billion in 1999. Apple surpassed that mark in August 2012, but shares peaked the next month. 'The point is that the most dominant tech leaders of their era don't necessarily just regroup from these types of peaks and re-assume a new all-time high market cap after a year or two,' Barclays says. 'They may get usurped in the ensuing decade or two. These observations are easier to see in hindsight -- but it shows how hard it is to get to this type of size and stay there, much less regroup -- and rise above it again.'
市值：微軟的市值在1999年達到了約6,200億美元的峯值。蘋果的市值在2012年8月超過這一水平，但股價在隨後的一個月達到了峯值。巴克萊認爲，關鍵問題是，一個時代最具影響力的科技領導者並不一定會在達到這樣的峯值後重整旗鼓，並在一兩年後再度創下新的最高市值紀錄。該行稱，這些企業的地位可能會在隨後的一二十年被取代；回顧企業的發展歷程會更容易看清這一點，但這也說明一個企業要達到並保持這種狀態有多難，更不要說重整旗鼓、再創新高。

The Next Big Thing: Apple trades at about 12 times next year's earnings, down from its P/E of 15.9 in October 2012. By comparison, Microsoft traded at about 20 times earnings in 2004, but its multiple decreased and has roughly maintained in the mid-teen range since then. 'Once the market decides that your main product will remain slow for a long time, there does seem to be a visible pattern for multiples to sustain lower levels for a long time even if revenues grow --as was the case with Microsoft,' Barclays says.
公司發展過程中的下一個重大事件：目前蘋果以下一年預期收益計算的市盈率爲12倍，2012年10月份時的市盈率爲15.9倍。與之相比，微軟2004年的市盈率約爲20倍，但此後市盈率下降並基本維持在13至16倍之間。巴克萊指出，一旦市場認定一家公司的主要產品會長期維持緩慢發展，那麼即便該公司的收入增長，其市盈率長期維持在較低水平似乎也是一種明顯格局，就像微軟的情況。

Valuation: 'Both companies seemed to share a peak in the valuation that roughly coincided with the high point in gross margins,' Barclays says. 'Microsoft's operating margins were in the high 50% range, which marked the high point in the shares. Apple's operating margins were over 39% in the second quarter of 2012, and the high in the shares followed about two quarters later.'
股票估值：巴克萊表示，蘋果與微軟的股票估值高峯似乎都有與各自毛利率的高點基本同時出現。在微軟的營業利潤率處於57%-59%的水平時，其股票估值也處於高點。蘋果的營業利潤率在2012年第二季度突破39%，其股票估值的高點出現在大約兩個季度之後。

Buybacks: 'Both Microsoft and Apple bowed to market pressure to issue dividends and start buybacks -- and it really did not lead to a resurgence in share price,' Barclays says. 'We acknowledge that Apple may have put a 'floor' in its stock at $500 given recent buyback acceleration, but the stock may not outperform from the mid $500s simply due to buybacks.'
股票回購：巴克萊表示，微軟和蘋果都迫於市場壓力派發了股息並開始回購股票，但這並沒有導致其股價回升；從蘋果最近加快回購速度來看，該公司可能已將股價的“底線”定在500美元，但正是由於回購行動，蘋果的股價可能不會大幅高於540-560美元。

In an interview earlier this month, Apple CEO Tim Cook said the company had bought $14 billion of its own shares in the two weeks following its quarterly results. Apple reported lower iPhone sales than projected and warned that revenue in the current quarter might fall from a year ago.
本月早些時候，蘋果公司首席執行長庫克(Tim Cook)在接受採訪時表示，蘋果在發佈季度財報後的兩週內已回購了140億美元的股票。此前，蘋果宣佈iPhone銷售額的下降幅度高於預期，並警告說當前財季的收入可能低於上年同期。

Apple has bought back more than $40 billion of its shares over the past 12 months, an aggressive push that billionaire investor Carl Icahn has been advocating since he took a position in the company last year.
蘋果公司在過去12個月回購了超過400億美元的股票，這是富豪投資人伊坎(Carl Icahn)去年入股蘋果以來一直在倡導的大力度行動。

Still, unless Apple really has a breakthrough product up its sleeve, Barclays sees the company's future looking awfully similar to Microsoft at the turn of the century.
不過，巴克萊認爲，除非蘋果真的擁有突破性產品，否則該公司的前景看起來與微軟在世紀之交時的情況頗爲近似。

'We see plenty of evidence to suggest that each product cycle or 'next big thing' will get less and less meaningful. The risk to investors, we believe, is that earnings power ex-buybacks could be flattish stemming from multiple pressures on margins,' Barclays says.
巴克萊表示，我們看到有很多證據表明每一個產品週期或者說“下一個重大事件”的影響力會越來越小。我們認爲，投資者面臨的風險是，由於利潤率面臨多重壓力，除了回購之外的收益能力可能平平。