歐盟或將面臨解體危機 這些國家可能步英國後塵

There was no lack of doomsday rhetoric before Britain's referendum on E.U. membership. European Council President Donald Tusk warned that Britain leaving the European Union could seriously threaten "Western political civilization."

在英國對脫歐進行全民公投之前，就存在不少末日言論。歐洲理事會主席唐納德·圖斯克曾警告稱，英國退出歐盟將會嚴重威脅"西方政治文明"。

Now, those fears have been stunningly amplified by the decision of British voters to break away. Predictions that the E.U. could break apart might be a bit far-fetched, but there certainly are other countries where demands for similar referendums could gain momentum.

現在，隨着英國公投結果的塵埃落定，這些擔心也令人震驚的被放大。預測歐盟將會解體可能還有點遙遠，但這一定會給下面這些有可能需要進行類似公投的國家一些動力。

Sweden

瑞典

The country views itself as the Scandinavian equivalent of Britain: It refused to introduce the euro as a currency. And in terms of E.U. politics, Britain and Sweden agree on 90 percent of all issues. Hence, a Brexit would raise particular worries in Sweden.

瑞典把自己看作是"斯堪的納維亞半島上的英國"，該國拒絕引入歐元作爲貨幣，並且，在歐盟的政治方面，英國和瑞典在90%的問題上都持相同意見。因此，英國脫歐可能會給瑞典帶來極大的擔憂。

Most Swedes still have a positive impression of the E.U. However, this could potentially change if Britain voted "out." In that case, one of the central questions would be whether E.U. leaders will try to strengthen cohesion by deepening cooperation and focusing on core members, or whether they will loosen the union to allow national governments to have a bigger say.

大部分瑞典人對歐盟仍持積極的態度，然而，這可能會因英國的"退歐"而發生改變。在這種情況下，一個關鍵問題將是，歐盟領導人是否會嘗試通過深化合作、聚焦核心成員，以增強凝聚力，又或者他們會放鬆政策，讓各國政府有更大的發言權。

Denmark

丹麥

Denmark held a referendum last December, although with a much more limited impact: Danes decided against handing over more powers to the E.U. That alone is not enough to predict whether Danes would really want to vote "out": In fact, most citizens of E.U. member states think that Brussels should not become more powerful than it is, according to a recent Pew Research Center survey.

去年12月，丹麥曾舉行全民公投，然而影響力很有限：丹麥決定不移交更多的權力給歐盟。僅此一點不足以預測丹麥是否真正想"脫歐"。事實上，根據皮尤研究中心最近的一項調查顯示，歐盟成員國大多數公民都認爲，歐盟不應該比現在權利更大。

As in Sweden's case, two arguments would be particularly likely to influence voter behavior. First, many Danes fear that more immigration or an influx of refugees could threaten the small nation's welfare system. Second, Denmark has so far relied on Britain as a strong ally in negotiations with the E.U. as both countries have had similar policy stances. "Without Britain, Denmark won't have the locomotive to tow Danish interests," political scientist Marlene Wind of the University of Copenhagen was quoted as saying by Bloomberg News

現在，和瑞典的情況差不多，可能導致丹麥進行公投的因素有兩個：一是許多丹麥人擔心更多的移民或難民的涌入可能會威脅該國的福利系統；二是至今爲止，在與歐盟協商方面，丹麥過於依賴英國，把英國當成強大的盟友，因爲兩國有相似的政治立場。彭博社援引哥本哈根大學的政治學家瑪琳·溫德的話稱，"英國既已退出，在關乎本國的利益時，丹麥就失去了掌舵人。"

Greece

希臘

The Greek government's debt crisis has mostly disappeared from the public debate and the headlines -- but it will return sooner rather than later.

希臘政府的債務危機終於從公衆討論和各大頭條消失了--但早晚有一天，它還會捲土重來的。

Greek newspaper Kathimerini fears that this ongoing crisis combined with a Brexit could ultimately become a threat to Greece's E.U. membership status.

希臘《每日新聞報》表示，希臘的債務危機和英國退歐最終將威脅其歐盟成員國的地位。

"Athens's main concern should be that a victory for Leave will weaken the eurozone's resolve to bolster Greece's position within the single currency, which could require more tools and a greater level of integration than currently exists," the paper argued.

該新聞報道稱，"希臘的主要擔心是，英國退歐會削弱歐元區支持希臘地位的決心，希臘使用單一貨幣，需要更多工具和比當前更高程度上的一體化。"

Hence, what Greece fears most is not an anti-E.U. referendum influenced by right-wing parties, but rather the E.U. pushing Greece out in order to save cohesion among the remaining members.

因此，希臘最擔心的不是受右翼政黨影響呼籲反歐盟公投，而是歐盟爲了增強其他成員國的凝聚力而將希臘移出歐盟。

The Netherlands

荷蘭

Dutch newspaper Algemeen Dagblad had a clear message for the British ahead of referendum. "Don't leave me this way," a cover story's headline read. But this may not reflect how most Dutch think about the E.U.

荷蘭《每日彙報》此前曾針對英國的公投發出了明確的信號，它的一個封面新聞的標題寫道："不要這樣丟下我"。不過這還不能完全反映荷蘭人對歐盟的看法。

Geert Wilders, the head of a right-wing populist party, has supported a Brexit and hopes for a similar referendum to take place in the Netherlands. "If we want to survive as a nation, we have to stop immigration and stop Islamization," Wilders told the BBC in a recent interview. "We cannot do that inside the European Union".

荷蘭右翼自由黨主席吉爾特·威爾德斯曾表示支持英國脫歐，並希望荷蘭也舉行類似的全民公投。他最近在接受BBC的採訪時表示："如果我們想作爲一個民族生存下去，我們就必須阻止移民和伊斯蘭化。而我們在歐盟內，無法做到這些。"

Hungary

匈牙利

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is not known to be a particular friend of the E.U., either. In fact, he has gained quite the opposite reputation. Last May, European Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker greeted Orban, saying, "Hello, dictator," while TV cameras were recording the awkward incident.

匈牙利總理維克托·奧爾班也一直因爲與歐盟關係不友好而聞名，事實上，他最近還得到了相反的名聲。去年5月，歐盟委員會主席讓-克勞德容克歡迎奧爾班總理時說，"你好，獨裁者"，攝像機記錄下了這尷尬的一幕。

Despite disagreements, Orban recently urged Britain to remain part of the E.U. -- but he did so most likely because E.U.-skeptical Britain is an important partner for the Budapest-based government. In Hungary, it might not be a clear-cut "in or out" referendum about E.U. membership that could cause trouble but rather a referendum that is designed to indirectly question Brussels's authority.

儘管有分歧，奧爾班最近還是敦促英國留在歐盟，不過他這樣做主要還是由於，對歐盟持懷疑態度的英國是匈牙利政府的重要合作伙伴。在匈牙利，可能不會出現將帶來麻煩的、明確是"保留還是退出"的全民公投，但會出現用來間接挑戰歐盟權威的公投。

France

法國

The French are some of the biggest E.U. skeptics: 61 percent have an unfavorable view of the union. Besides Germany, France is continental Europe's driving force. But it also faces a multitude of problems, including a weak economy and a high terrorism threat. Some of the origins of these problems have been blamed on the E.U. or conditions created by its member states.

法國是歐盟最大的懷疑論者之一，有61%的人不支持歐盟。法國同德國一樣，也是歐洲大陸的驅動力。但它也面臨着許多問題，包括疲軟的經濟、恐怖主義的威脅等。法國將很多問題的根源都歸咎於歐盟或其成員國。