專家：坐飛機依然很安全

The disappearance of an Indonesia AirAsia jetliner with 162 people on board caps a torrid year for the aviation industry involving a spate of high-profile crashes. Accident data indicates, though, that flying remains safe by historical standards.

從印尼起飛、載有162人的亞航航班失聯爲航空業倍受煎熬的一年畫上句號，這一年發生了一系列備受關注的空難事件。不過，從事故發生率來看，相對歷史水平，飛機安全係數依舊很高。

AirAsia Flight QZ8501 lost contact with air traffic control Sunday on a flight to Singapore from Surabaya, Indonesia, as it was climbing to a higher altitude to avoid stormy weather, officials said. Contact with the Airbus Group NV A320 jet, which can seat 180 passengers, was lost at 7:24 a.m. local time—almost two hours after takeoff.

據印尼官員消息，12月28日，亞洲航空QZ8501航班在從印尼泗水前往新加坡的途中與空中交通管制失去聯繫，當時飛機遭遇暴雨天氣，正在爬升。飛機機型爲空中客車A320，能搭載180名乘客。當地時間早上7點24分，即起飛後兩小時，飛機失去了聯繫。

The disappearance follows a series of ill-fated flights this year, of which two belonged to Malaysia Airlines. In March, one of its Boeing Co. 777s went missing with 239 people on board en route to Beijing from Kuala Lumpur, and the wreckage still hasn’t been located. And in July, another 777 belonging to the Malaysian carrier was shot down over eastern Ukraine, killing all 298 aboard in the year’s deadliest air accident.

這架飛機失蹤之前，已經有多個航班遭遇同樣噩運。其中兩架來自馬來西亞航空公司。3月，馬航一架載有239人的波音777客機從吉隆坡飛往北京途中失聯，至今仍未找到其殘骸。7月，另一架馬航波音777客機途徑烏克蘭東部時被擊落，機上298名乘員全部遇難。這也是今年死亡人數最多的一起空難。

An Air Algérie flight also crashed in July while flying to Algeria from Burkina Faso. All 116 people on the plane died.

同月，阿爾及利亞航空一架從布基納法索飛往阿爾及利亞的客機失事，機上116人無一生還。

MH370 dropped off the radar an hour into flight. At the end of 2014, the families of the victims still have no answers. WSJ's Jason Bellini reports.

馬航MH370航班起飛一小時後在雷達上失去了信號。2014年已接近尾聲，遇難者家屬們仍然沒有得到任何答覆。

Despite these accidents and a series of others during the summer, the loss of life during 2014 before the disappearance of the AirAsia plane Sunday was still below the 10-year average of 676 fatalities, according to data from the Aviation Safety Network, an affiliate of the not-for-profit Flight Safety Foundation. Crashes this year had led to 526 fatalities before contact was lost with the AirAsia jetliner, the group said. The deaths from the shootdown over Ukraine aren’t counted because they are linked to a hostile act.

儘管今年夏天發生了一系列空難事故，但據非贏利性機構飛行安全基金會（Flight Safety Foundation）旗下的航空安全網（Aviation Safety Network）的數據顯示，過去10年平均每年空難死亡人數爲676人，在28日亞航客機失聯之前，2014年的遇難者人數爲526人，依然低於平均人數。統計中沒有涉及烏克蘭上空那架被擊落的航班，理由是它失事的主要原因是敵對行爲。

“It will probably come as a surprise to most people, but really it was a very safe year,” said Paul Hayes, director of safety at aviation consultancy Ascend.

航空諮詢公司Ascend的安全主管保羅・海斯（Paul Hayes）說：“很多人可能會覺得不可思議，不過今年的飛機確實很安全。”

The number of fatalities from plane crashes this year is a long way off the 1,074 people who were killed in 2005. The figures were much higher in the 1970s and 1980s, when far fewer people flew.

今年因空難喪生的遇難者人數遠低於2005年的1074人。而在20世紀七八十年代，乘坐飛機的人數很少，而死亡人數卻遠超現在。

The International Air Transport Association, which represents more than 200 carriers, said this month that accident rates this year through September were below the five-year average, with 2.1 crashes per 1 million flights.

12月，代表200多家航空公司國際航空運輸協會曾表示，截至到9月，今年飛機的事故發生率爲每100萬次航班中有2.1架航班失事，低於過去5年的平均事故發生率。

Accident rates this year “still continue the trend of increasing safety,” Mr. Hayes said. “It is very difficult to get over not only how safe airline flying has become but how much safer it is than even just a decade ago.”

海斯說今年的事故發生率“安全係數仍保持上升趨勢”。他說：“要想同時瞭解‘目前飛行安全係數有多高’和‘安全係數僅與十年前相比就上升了多少’，這並不容易。”

The aircraft insurance industry has been hit hard this year, exacerbated by a series of attacks on airports, potentially leading to a rise in premiums. Attacks on airports in Tripoli, Kabul and Karachi have ratcheted up worry about the risk to aircraft sitting in war-torn areas.

航空保險行業今年則遭受重創。多起機場襲擊事件又使其雪上加霜。保險費也因此水漲船高。的黎波里、喀布爾、卡拉奇的機場都遭到了武裝分子的襲擊，這進一步加深了人們對戰爭多發地航空飛行安全的擔心。

Despite the overall improvement in aviation safety, experts are under pressure to reduce the number of aviation accidents as more people fly. Safety experts in the U.S. and Europe are establishing vast databases of flights to determine how flying can be made safer.

雖然航空安全整體上進步明顯，但隨着越來越多的人選擇飛行出行，專家們在減少航空事故方面倍感壓力。美國和歐洲的安全專家正在着手建立覆蓋面廣闊的飛行數據庫，希望以此獲得安全係數更高的飛行方案。

Experts will be looking for lessons from any findings that emerge from the disappearance of the AirAsia jetliner. France’s air accident investigation office, the BEA, on Sunday said it would dispatch two investigators to Jakarta along with two technical experts from Airbus to aid Indonesia’s probe.

專家們將從這起亞航失聯事件的調查結果中尋求一些教訓。法國空中事故調查辦公室BEA29日表示將派兩名調查員與來自空中客車公司（Airbus）的兩名技術專家一起前往雅加達，協助印尼政府展開調查。

The BEA could help analyze the plane’s so called “black boxes” if they are recovered. Those devices, which store cockpit conversations and system data, generally provide the best information of what went wrong on a flight.

如果飛機“黑匣子”能夠被找到，BEA能幫助進行數據分析。黑匣子紀錄有駕駛員艙尾對話和系統數據，可以很好地說明當時飛機遇到的狀況。

The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board said it would also assist the investigation, if asked. Indonesia has lead responsibility for any probe under international aviation rules.

美國國家運輸安全委員會表示如果印尼提出請求，它將協助調查。印尼在遵循國際航空規則的所有調查中擔負主要責任。