FT社評:英國面臨雙重挑戰

Brexit was always a threat to the territorial integrity of the UK. The Leave campaign airily dismissed such talk as scaremongering. It was not, as Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, made plain on Monday.

英國退歐(Brexit)一直對聯合王國的領土完整構成威脅。脫歐陣營毫不在意地不理會這種言論，認爲這是危言聳聽。事實並非如此，正如蘇格蘭首席大臣尼古拉?斯特金(Nicola Sturgeon)週一所表明的那樣。

Ms Sturgeon’s demand for a second referendum on Scottish independence comes as the UK government prepares to trigger Article 50, setting in motion divorce proceedings with the EU. The Brexit negotiations will be hard enough. Simultaneously fighting a Scottish referendum campaign would be a nightmare for Theresa May. It would also be against Scotland’s interests to make an irrevocable decision without knowing the terms of Brexit — an irony which will not be lost on Britain’s voters.

斯特金要求舉行第二次蘇格蘭獨立公投之際，英國政府正準備觸發歐盟《里斯本條約》第50條(Article 50)，啓動脫離歐盟的程序。英國退歐談判將會非常艱難。同時要應對一場蘇格蘭公投運動，將是特里薩?梅(Theresa May)的噩夢。在不知英國退歐條款的情況下做出不可撤銷的決定，也不符合蘇格蘭的利益——英國選民將感受到其中的諷刺意味。

Yet Ms Sturgeon can argue legitimately that there has been a material change in political circumstances since the Scottish referendum in 2014. It may be a mistake for Scotland to demand a second vote, and voting to go might leave Scotland poorer and weaker; but Brexit changes everything.

然而，斯特金可以合理地認爲，自從2014年的蘇格蘭公投以來，政治環境發生了重大變化。蘇格蘭要求第二次公投也許是一個錯誤，投票離開也許會使蘇格蘭變得更貧窮、更弱小；但英國退歐會改變一切。

Economic reality has changed too, but not in Scotland’s favour. Scotland’s flow of trade with the rest of the UK is still four times its trade with the rest of Europe, but oil prices are lower now. It is running a deep budget deficit, and continues to receive a significant slew of subsidies from Westminister.

經濟現實也發生了變化，但並非有利於蘇格蘭。蘇格蘭與聯合王國其他地區的貿易量仍是其與歐洲其他國家貿易量的4倍，但現在油價更低。眼下，蘇格蘭的預算赤字很嚴重，並繼續從威斯敏斯特方面獲得大量補貼。

Mrs May says the Scottish nationalist party is playing political games. Yet the extreme version of Brexit that the Tory government appears intent upon has forced the Scots into terrible choices. They face leaving the EU despite voting to remain by a large margin — or upending relations with the rest of the UK, their biggest bilateral trading partner. They risk being hitched to an English Tory government that has scant support in more left-leaning, immigrant-friendly Scotland.

梅表示，蘇格蘭國民黨(SNP)正在玩政治遊戲。然而，保守黨政府看來打算走極端的退歐路線，這迫使格蘭人面臨可怕的選擇。他們要麼離開歐盟，儘管蘇格蘭的留歐票數大幅領先於退歐票數，要麼與聯合王國其他地區——他們最大的雙邊貿易伙伴——脫離關係。他們面臨跟英國保守黨政府捆綁到一起的風險，這個政府對立場更偏左、對移民友好的蘇格蘭給予的支持非常小。

Ms Sturgeon is playing on these fears, arguing that the May government has failed to give Scotland any real input into the Brexit process.

斯特金正在利用這些恐懼。她辯稱，梅的政府在退歐程序裏沒有給蘇格蘭任何真正的話語權。

Mrs May could deny Scotland a constitutionally binding referendum. She cannot, however, stop an advisory vote from taking place. If such a vote were won by the leavers, she could prevent it going into force only by inviting a crisis of democratic legitimacy.

梅可以拒絕授權蘇格蘭舉行具有憲法約束力的公投。然而，她不能阻止諮詢投票的發生。如果主張離開者贏得投票，她唯有引發一場民主合法性的危機，才能防止投票結果產生實效。

If Scotland were to vote to leave, it would be an immense gamble. It could not be assured of an invitation to join the EU, since countries worried about their own restive regions, such as Spain, would surely object. The border will be another vexed topic, as is the case today with Northern Ireland. The future of farm and fisheries policy — now in the hands of the EU — remains open too.

如果蘇格蘭投票離開，這將是一場巨大的賭博。蘇格蘭不能確定自己會被邀請加入歐盟，因爲擔心本國內不安定地區的國家（如西班牙）肯定會反對。邊界將是另一個令人頭疼的話題，正如今日北愛爾蘭的情況。目前掌握在歐盟手中的農場和漁業政策，其未來也不確定。

The country of Adam Smith will no doubt favour open trade relations with the UK. The UK may feel differently if businesses shift operations north to remain in the EU’s single market. More important, the SNP has still not answered the questions that dogged it in 2014: what currency an independent Scotland would use, and how it would fund a generous welfare state.

誕生了亞當?斯密(Adam Smith)的蘇格蘭無疑將贊成與聯合王國的開放貿易關係。如果各企業把業務向北轉移，繼續留在歐盟單一市場，聯合王國或許會有不同的感覺。更重要的是，蘇格蘭國民黨仍沒有回答在2014年困擾它的問題：獨立後的蘇格蘭將使用什麼貨幣，以及它支撐一個慷慨的福利國家的資金來源是什麼。

This moment in the history of the nation is doubly fraught because there are irresponsible voices in Mrs May’s party who would be content to see Scotland go. They dream of tightening the conservatives’ hold on Westminster and ending the flow of subsidies north.

在歷史的這一刻，聯合王國面臨雙重困擾，因爲梅的保守黨裏有一些不負責任的聲音，他們將樂意看到蘇格蘭離去。他們想要收緊保守黨對威斯敏斯特的控制，不再向北方提供補貼。

Ms Sturgeon has proposed that the referendum goes ahead between autumn 2018 and spring 2019. At the early end, it could disrupt Brexit negotiations. A later date would give Scots an informed choice. It might also force Mrs May’s government to think harder about the risks of walking away with no deal. In an imperfect world, that is the least the public deserves.

斯特金提議在2018年秋季至2019年春季之間舉行公投。如果時間靠前，公投可能會破壞英國退歐談判。如果時間靠後，蘇格蘭將會在知道談判結果的情況下作出選擇。這也許會迫使梅政府更加認真地考慮尚未達成協議就退出的風險。在一個不完美的世界裏，公衆絕不應該承受這樣的結果。