特朗普對美國民主的傷害如何估量

Whoever said the personal is political did not have Donald Trump in mind. In the last week alone, the US president berated a chain store for dropping his daughter’s branded product line; the White House counsellor, Kellyanne Conway, then urged television viewers to go out and buy Ivanka Trump’s products. Meanwhile the first lady, Melania Trump, is suing a newspaper on the grounds its defamation ruined a “once in lifetime” chance for her to make money. No US president in history has triggered anything close to this many conflicts of interest — and this is just his family. Trump Inc is turning into America’s newest fourth estate.

那些說出“個人的即政治的”的人，頭腦裏一定沒有想到唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)。僅在過去一週裏，這位美國總統就曾因爲一家連鎖店將其女兒品牌的產品線下架而對其大加鞭笞。接着，白宮顧問凱莉安妮?康韋(Kellyanne Conway)敦促電視觀衆上街去買伊萬卡?特朗普(Ivanka Trump)的產品。與此同時，第一夫人梅拉尼婭?特朗普(Melania Trump)正在起訴一家報紙，理由是該報的誹謗毀了她“一生只有一次”的賺錢機會。引發這麼多利益衝突，歷史上任何一位美國總統都望塵莫及——這還只是他家人的情況。目前，“特朗普公司”(Trump Inc)正在變成美國最新的“第四階級”(the fourth estate)。

Mr Trump’s ability to benefit personally from office is immense. Every time he tweets against a company, its stock briefly nosedives. A minute’s notice would enable a savvy operator to monetise the damage by shorting the stock. Federal enforcement of insider trading laws is handled by the Securities and Exchange Commission, whose head Mr Trump hopes will be Wall Street lawyer Jay Clayton. On a strict reading, Mr Trump is already in breach of the US constitution’s emoluments clause, which bans officer-holders from accepting gifts from foreign governments. Every time an embassy rents the Trump International Hotel’s ballroom the money will end up in the president’s pocket. Conflicts are assessed by the General Services Administration whose head Mr Trump will appoint.

特朗普從其職務中獲取個人好處的能力十分巨大。每次他在Twitter網站上發消息批評一家公司，該公司的股票都會短暫暴跌。假如能提前一分鐘得到消息，聰明的操盤手就能通過做空該股票從下跌中獲利。內幕交易法律的聯邦執法由美國證券交易委員會(SEC)負責，而特朗普希望由華爾街律師傑伊?克萊頓(Jay Clayton)執掌該委員會。嚴格說來，特朗普已經違反了美國憲法的“報酬條款”(Emoluments Clause)，該條款禁止在政府任職的人士接受外國政府的饋贈。每次有大使館租用特朗普國際酒店(Trump International Hotel)的宴會廳，租金最終都會流進這位總統的腰包。這些利益衝突由美國總務管理局(General Services Administration)評估，該機構的負責人將由特朗普任命。

Yet the US courts are unlikely to go near anti-Trump lawsuits. A plaintiff must show they have suffered damage. It is hard to see how anyone could prove they were personally harmed by the Trump Hotel’s high occupancy rates, or his booming golf courses. Many of Mr Trump’s potential conflicts are hidden as he has refused to release his tax returns, which means he could pocket any such benefits with impunity. Short of Mr Trump taking a direct foreign bribe, do not expect the judiciary to act as a check on him. Expect even less of Congress. Mr Trump’s Republican colleagues would be the last people to embark on fishing expeditions into his business interests, still less to impeach him. The field is wide open. Those hoping he will be brought down by the system are guilty of wishful thinking.

然而，美國法院不太可能去碰反特朗普的案子。原告必須證明他們蒙受了損失。很難想象有人能證明，特朗普酒店的高入住率、或者他火爆的高爾夫球場損害了他們個人。特朗普許多潛在的利益衝突都是隱性的，原因是他拒絕公開報稅單——意味着他可以將所有此類好處不受懲罰地納入囊中。由於特朗普沒有直接收受外國賄賂，不要指望司法機構會調查他。至於國會就更不要指望了。特朗普的共和黨同僚，是最不願意着手調查其商業利益的人羣，更不要說彈劾他了。所有的障礙都掃清了。那些希望特朗普被體制拉下馬的人們純屬癡心妄想。

But the damage to American democracy — and its global standing — is incalculable. Those wanting to influence America’s 45th president know that the best route is via his family — particularly Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner. China has already invested diplomatic capital wooing the first daughter and her husband, who is seen as the president’s most trusted adviser. Ivanka’s attendance at the Chinese embassy’s Chinese new year celebrations may have played a role in Mr Trump’s endorsement of Beijing’s “One China” policy a few days later.

然而，美國民主（及其全球地位）受到的傷害卻是無法計算的。想要影響這位美國第45任總統的人們知道，最好的途徑是通過他的家人——尤其是伊萬卡?特朗普和賈裏德?庫什納(Jared Kushner)。中國已經通過討好第一女兒和她的丈夫（他被視爲這位總統最信任的顧問），投下了外交資本。伊萬卡出席中國大使館的春節慶祝活動，也許對幾天後特朗普支持北京方面“一箇中國”(One China)政策發揮了作用。

The fact that she sat in on her father’s first meeting with Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, also spoke volumes. Ms Trump’s company is planning to launch a Japanese accessory line in a joint venture with a Japanese state-owned bank. Though Ms Trump has given up control of her company, she has not divested her stake. She is only following her father’s example. The president has retained ownership of the Trump Organization but handed over its running to his two sons, Eric and Donald junior. It is the opposite of a blind trust.

伊萬卡列席了她父親與日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)的首次會談，這一點也意味深長。伊萬卡的公司計劃與一家日本國有銀行聯手開辦合資公司，推出一個日本飾品系列。儘管伊萬卡放棄了她公司的控制權，但她沒有撤股。她只是在效仿她父親的做法。特朗普保留了特朗普集團(Trump Organization)的所有權，但將其運營交給了他的兩個兒子埃裏克(Eric)和小唐納德。這是“保密信託”(blind trust)的反面。

Plenty of US presidents entertain foreign leaders at their retreats — George Bush senior hosted at Kennebunkport in Maine and Bush junior at his Texan ranch in Crawford. But these were private homes. This weekend, Mr Trump hosted Mr Abe at his Mar-A-Lago club on Palm Beach. Mr Trump’s club doubled the $100,000 nomination fee for what is known as the “winter White House” shortly after he was inaugurated. Likewise, Washington’s increasingly pricey Trump International Hotel is turning into the White House’s informal guest house. Everyone knows Mr Trump rewards people who treat him well. Shortly after Mr Trump was elected, Trump Hotels announced plans to quintuple its outlets in America.

很多美國總統在他們的度假別墅款待外國領導人，老布什在緬因州的肯尼邦克港，小布什在他位於德克薩斯州的克勞福德農場。但這些是私產。上週末，特朗普是在他位於棕櫚灘的馬阿拉歌(Mar-a-Lago)俱樂部招待安倍晉三的。特朗普的俱樂部被稱爲“冬季白宮”，在他就任後不久，這所俱樂部的會費從10萬美元翻了一番。同樣的，華盛頓價格日益高昂的特朗普國際酒店將變成白宮的非正式客房。所有人都知道，特朗普會獎勵那些對他好的人。就在特朗普當選後不久，特朗普國際酒店宣佈，計劃將其在美國的酒店數量增加4倍。

But what price will America pay? Even without overt lawbreaking, the reputational damage is bad enough. Mr Trump’s insistence that conflict of interest laws do not apply to him robs America of standing to accuse other countries of bending the rule of law. Even where Mr Trump has the highest motives, he will fail the Caesar’s wife test. Critics of Mr Trump’s “Muslim ban” point out that it omits countries such as Saudi Arabia, in which Trump Inc. has business interests. How much will Trump Inc. benefit from the White House’s big infrastructure plan? What boost will Manhattan property magnates receive from Mr Trump’s tax cuts? How many product lines will Ivanka Trump’s business roll out in China? It will be impossible to quell suspicions of self-dealing.

但美國將付出何種代價？即便沒有公開的違法行爲，特朗普給美國造成的聲譽損害已經非常嚴重了。特朗普堅稱，利益衝突法不適用於他，這剝奪了美國指責其他國家違反法治的權利。即便在特朗普最積極的領域，他也通過不了偉大人物應潔身自好的測試。批評特朗普的“穆斯林禁令”的人指出，它漏掉了沙特阿拉伯等國，而特朗普的公司與沙特阿拉伯有商業往來。特朗普的公司將在多大程度上受益於白宮的大規模基礎設施計劃？曼哈頓的房地產巨頭將從特朗普的減稅政策中獲得多大好處？伊萬卡?特朗普的公司將在中國推出多少產品系列？要消除假公濟私的猜測將是不可能的。

The corrosion of faith in US institutions was already deep. Last month, the Economist Intelligence Unit downgraded American democracy to “flawed” from “full”, putting it in the same category as Italy and India. Its chief reason was falling public trust in government. Its decision was based on what happened before Mr Trump was elected. The problem is now many times greater. Mr Trump’s terms of contract are entirely one-sided. The Trumps can only gain. America will pick up the tab.

對美國製度的信任已嚴重削弱。上月，經濟學人智庫(Economist Intelligence Unit)將美國民主指數從“完全民主”下調至“部分民主”，與意大利和印度同級。主要原因是公衆對政府的信任日益滑坡。該智庫的決定基於特朗普當選前的情況。如今，問題變得嚴重多了。特朗普的合約條款完全是傾向於一邊的。特朗普方只能獲利。買單的是美國。