如何抵禦特朗普的民粹衝擊波

This year investors have grappled with aplethora of global mysteries: Brexit, war in the Middle East, negative interestrates, energy prices, the Chinese debt bubble, Russian President Vladimir Putin’spolicy-making and drama in Brazil.

今年，投資者已經在全力應對全球的諸多不確定性：英國退歐、中東戰爭、負利率、能源價格、中國債務泡沫、俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)的決策以及巴西的戲劇性事件。

Now, however, we face another biguncertainty: what an election battle between Donald Trump and Hillary Clintonmight do to American asset markets.

然而，現在我們又面臨一個巨大的不確定性：唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)與希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)的選戰會對美國資產市場帶來何種影響。

Although Mrs Clinton, the presumed Democratnominee, appears to have a fairly big lead over Mr Trump in the polls, theoutcome of November’s presidential vote looks uncertain. We have all learnt in the pastyear how wrong pollsters can be.

儘管有望獲得民主黨候選人提名的希拉里似乎在民調中遠遠領先於特朗普，但今年11月總統大選的結果看起來仍是不確定的。我們在過去一年裏都明白了，民調機構可能錯得多麼離譜。

What is even more unnerving for investorsis that, as populism gathers momentum, it is eroding many of the normalboundaries of “right” and “left”, “pro-business” and “anti-business”erning clear policy patterns amid the wild rhetoric is not easy for eitherDemocrats or Republicans.

甚至更讓投資者擔心的是，隨着民粹主義興起，“右翼”和“左翼”、“支持商業”和“反對商業”之間的許多正常界限變得模糊起來。無論是民主黨還是共和黨，在他們的一片嘈雜言論當中找出清晰的政策模式並非易事。

So what is an investor to do if they wantto Trump-proof their portfolio —or even benefit from an ugly Clinton-versus-Trump fight? In thecoming weeks, sellside banks and financial advisers will produce acres ofideas. Here are five of my own.

那麼，如果投資者想讓他們的投資組合抵禦特朗普帶來的衝擊——乃至從希拉里對決特朗普的殘酷選戰中獲利，他們該怎麼做？在今後幾周，賣方銀行和金融顧問將會提出諸多觀點，下面是我自己的5個觀點。

First of all, do not buy banks; or not ifyou hope government will boost their share price. Until recently, Mrs Clintonwas perceived as being soft on Wall Street; indeed, some financiers hoped thatbank-bashing would end in 2016.

首先，不要買銀行股；或者說，假如你指望政府會推升銀行股股價，不要買。直至最近，人們都認爲希拉里對華爾街持溫和立場，實際上，一些金融家期待，銀行遭受抨擊的局面將在2016年結束。

But Bernie Sanders, her Democratic rival,has performed so well that Mrs Clinton will face pressure to sTeal his“socialist” language to appease his supporters, and may well pick an anti-WallStreet figure as her running mate, such as Sherrod Brown, an Ohio senator.

但希拉里的民主黨競爭對手伯尼•桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)表現得太好了，以至於希拉里將會面臨竊取其“社會主義”言論來取悅其支持者的壓力，而且很可能選擇一位反對華爾街的人物作競選搭檔，比如俄亥俄州參議員謝羅德•布朗(Sherrod Brown)。

Mr Trump may not be so different. ManyRepublicans would love to repeal the post-crisis financial reforms, and he hascriticised the Dodd-Frank Act. But he also seems instinctively hostile to WallStreet. As a self-appointed hero of angry main street voters, he is unlikely toembrace banks.

特朗普可能沒有那麼大的轉變。許多共和黨人將會樂於廢除危機後出臺的金融改革措施，而他已經抨擊了《多德-弗蘭克法案》(Dodd-Frank Act)。但他也似乎發自本能地對華爾街懷有敵意。作爲一名自詡代表憤怒的大衆選民的候選人，他不太可能支持銀行。

Second, do not expect a rally in Treasurybonds; at least, not one driven by debt cuts. A couple of years ago, it waspresumed that by this point in the economic cycle policymakers would bediscussing how to cut America’s vast debt burden. But Mrs Clinton is no fiscalhawk. On the contrary, she seems to lean towards fiscal stimulus, and may tryto appease supporters of Mr Sanders this way.

第二，不要預計國債價格反彈；至少不要期待債務削減推動國債反彈。兩年前，人們認爲，到經濟週期的這個時點，政策制定者將會討論如何削減美國龐大的債務負擔。但希拉里不是財政政策方面的鷹派人物，相反，她似乎傾向於財政刺激政策，並且可能試圖通過這種方式取悅桑德斯的支持者。

And, while the Tea Party wing of theRepublican party is eager to slash debt, Mr Trump has built a career onexploiting leverage. He has vaguely promised to get rid of America’s $15tn debtin eight years; but he also wants to create jobs, boost growth and protectentitlements. Little wonder that traditional fiscally hawkish Republicansdislike him.

而且，儘管共和黨內的茶黨派系渴望削減債務，但特朗普的職業生涯就是建立在利用槓桿的基礎之上。他含糊地承諾在8年內消除美國15萬億美元的債務；但他也希望創造就業機會、促進增長和保護福利。難怪傳統的共和黨財政鷹派人士不喜歡他。

Third, embrace infrastructure stocks —whoever wins. Mr Trump built his brand with construction, and were he to win inNovember he would be likely to unleash a national infrastructure campaign tocreate jobs and growth. He likes the idea of being a second Franklin Roosevelt,the man who built America’s highway system.

第三，買入基礎設施股票——無論誰贏得大選。特朗普通過建築業創建了自己的品牌，如果他在今年11月贏得大選，他很可能發起全國性的基礎設施建設活動來創造就業和促進增長。特朗普喜歡成爲第二個富蘭克林•羅斯福(Franklin Roosevelt)的想法——羅斯福打造了美國的公路體系。

But Mrs Clinton may do this too. After all,as Lawrence Summers, the former US Treasury secretary, recently pointed out,the beauty of infrastructure spending is that it could create middle-class jobsand growth at a time when monetary policy has reached its limits —at least,if you do not mind raising debt.

但希拉里也可能推動基礎設施建設。畢竟，正如美國前財長勞倫斯•薩默斯(Lawrence Summers)最近指出的那樣，基礎設施支出的魅力在於，它可以在貨幣政策達到極限的時候創造中產階級就業和經濟增長——最起碼如果你不介意債務上升的話。

Fourth, expect currency volatility. Themost eye-grabbing element of Mr Trump’s campaign so far has been his threatsabout trade protectionism. But Mrs Clinton has turned more protectionist, too,toning down her support of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. No one knows if hernewfound caution will actually change trade flows or supply chains. Butsabre-rattling on the global stage could certainly quickly unleash somecurrency swings.

第四，預計匯率會出現波動。特朗普的競選活動迄今最吸引眼球的地方是他威脅要實施貿易保護主義。但希拉里也越來越帶有保護主義色彩，在言語上減少了對《跨太平洋夥伴關係》（Trans-Pacific Partnership，簡稱TPP）的支持。沒有人知道，她的新的謹慎立場是否會真的改變貿易流動或者供應鏈。但全球舞臺上的威脅恫嚇肯定會很快引發一些匯率波動。