失意的精英與特朗普崛起

Donald Trump will be the Republican candidate for president. He might even become president of the US. It is hard to exaggerate the significance and danger of this development. The US was the bastion of democracy and freedom in the 20th century. If it elected Mr Trump, a man with fascistic attitudes to people and power, the world would be transformed.

唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)將成爲共和黨的總統候選人。他甚至有可能成爲美國總統。這一事態意義重大、極度危險。美國是20世紀民主和自由的堡壘。如果對人和權力持法西斯主義態度的特朗普當選美國總統，世界將會徹底改變。

Mr Trump is a misogynist, a racist and a xenophobe. He glories in his own ignorance and inconsistency. Truth is whatever he finds convenient. His policy ideas are ludicrous, where they are not horrifying. Yet his attitudes and ideas are less disturbing than his character: he is a narcissist, bully and spreader of conspiracy theories. It is frightening to consider how such a man would use the powers at the disposal of the president.

特朗普是厭女主義者，一個種族主義者，還是個仇外者。他以自己的無知和反覆無常爲榮。他總是以對自己有利的方式敘述事實。他的政策理念要麼荒唐可笑，要麼令人恐懼。然而與他的態度和想法相比，他的性格更令人不安：他是個自戀狂，橫行霸道，喜歡傳播陰謀論。這樣一個人會如何使用美國總統所擁有的權力？這個問題想想就不寒而慄。

Andrew Sullivan, the conservative commentator, recently wrote: “In terms of our liberal democracy and constitutional order, Trump is an extinction-level event.” He is right.

保守派評論人士安德魯•沙利文(Andrew Sullivan)最近寫道：“特朗普的出現，對我們的自由民主和憲政秩序具有毀滅性影響。”他說得沒錯。

It might prove surprisingly easy for President Trump to find people willing to execute tyrannical orders or to compel the unwilling to do so. By exaggerating crises or creating them, a would-be despot can pervert judicial and political systems. The presidents of Russia and Turkey are skilful exemplars. The US has an entrenched constitutional order. But even this might buckle, particularly if the president enjoyed impeachment-proof support in Congress.

事實上，如果特朗普當選了美國總統，他可能會輕而易舉地找到願意執行專制秩序的人或強迫不願意的人執行這種秩序。通過誇大危機或者製造危機，潛在的獨裁者可以敗壞司法和政治體系。現今的俄羅斯總統和土耳其總統就很擅長此道。美國的憲政秩序根深蒂固。但即便是這種秩序也可能崩塌，尤其是當總統在國會得到的支持，能夠保證其免於彈劾的時候。

Mr Sullivan calls on Plato, the greatest of anti-democratic philosophers, in aid. Plato, he reminds us, believed that the more equal a society became the less it would accept authority. In its place would come the demagogue who offers simple remedies for complex problems.

沙利文引用柏拉圖(Plato)的話來佐證自己的觀點（而柏拉圖是最偉大的反民主哲學家）。他提醒我們，柏拉圖相信越是平等的社會越不接受威權。一個平等的社會容易出現煽動家，爲複雜問題提供簡單化的解決之道。

Mr Trump is the pied piper of the enraged and the resentful. He has risen, argues Mr Sullivan, as the man who will “take on the increasingly despised elites”. Moreover, the media revolution has facilitated this rise by erasing “almost any elite moderation or control of our democratic discourse”.

特朗普對社會中感到憤怒和不滿的那些人有神奇的感召力。沙利文認爲，特朗普是以這一身份崛起於政壇的——將要“挑戰日益受到鄙視的精英階層”的人。此外，媒體革命消除了“精英對我們民主言論的幾乎所有制約或者控制”，爲特朗普的崛起提供了便利。

Demagoguery is indeed an Achilles heel of democracy. Yet the Athenian democracy, in which Plato lived, did not give way to a domestic tyranny but was rather born from one. It was the Macedonian king who ended it in 338BC.

煽動確實是民主的軟肋。然而，柏拉圖生活時期的雅典民主政治是從專制政體中誕生的，卻並不是被本土專制統治所取代的。直到公元前338年，馬其頓國王(Macedonian king)亞歷山大大帝征服希臘，才終結了雅典的民主政體。

Above all, Mr Sullivan understates the role of elites. In the case of the US, he argues that wealth is unable to buy the presidency. Mr Obama defeated Mr Romney, for example. But money buys influence at lower levels of politics. More important, elites shape the economy and society. If a swath of the people is enraged, elites bear responsibility.

最重要的是，沙利文低估了精英們的角色。就美國而言，他認爲，金錢無法買到總統職位。奧巴馬(Obama)擊敗了羅姆尼(Romney)就是例子。但金錢可以在較低層次的政治中買到影響力。更重要的是，精英階層塑造了經濟和社會。如果一大羣人感到憤怒，精英們負有責任。

The righteous attachment of the Democrats to the rights of women and, still more, the cause of minorities, defined by race, sexual orientation and identity, transferred the allegiance of the white, male middle classes, particularly in the old South, to the Republicans. The racial element in “Obama derangement syndrome” is quite clear.

民主黨對女性權利以及少數羣體（就種族、性取向和認同而言）事業的正義堅持，讓中產階級白人男性轉投共和黨——尤其是在傳統的南部地區。“奧巴馬都不對綜合症”(Obama derangement syndrome)中，種族因素非常明顯。

Then Republicans treated these supporters to a “bait and switch”. They needed these votes for what their donors most desired: low taxes, weak regulation, free trade and liberal immigration. To make these causes goals of the Republican party, elites had to turn the government into the enemy. They also had to entice culturally conservative supporters with promises of change that were never likely to be met.

隨後共和黨對這些支持者玩了一手“偷樑換柱”。他們需要這些人的選票，來促成他們的金主最想要的低稅收、弱監管、自由貿易以及自由移民。要讓這幾項事業成爲共和黨的目標，精英們不得不把矛頭對準政府。他們也不得不用永遠不太可能實現的承諾，來引誘文化上的保守派支持者。

In addition, elites on both sides promoted economic changes that ended up destroying trust in their competence and probity. In this, the financial crisis and consequent bailouts were decisive.

此外，民主黨和共和黨的精英們都曾推動事與願違的經濟改革——這些改革到頭來卻破壞了民衆對他們的能力和品行的信任。在這一點上，金融危機以及隨後的紓困具有決定性影響。

Yet by then the middle classes had suffered decades of real income stagnation and relative income decline. Globalisation has brought huge benefits to many of the world’s poor. But there were significant domestic losers. Today, the latter believe that those who run the economy and polity impoverish, exploit and despise them.

然而，到那時爲止，中產階級已經經歷了數十年的實際收入停滯和相對收入下降。全球化爲世界上的許多窮人帶來了巨大的益處，但也讓美國國內許多人成爲輸家。如今，這些輸家認爲，那些執掌經濟和政治的人讓他們變得貧窮，剝削他們，還瞧不起他們。

Even Republican elites have become their enemy and Mr Trump has become their saviour. It is no surprise that he is a billionaire. Caesar, aristocratic leader of the popular party, brought forth “Caesarism”, the rule of the charismatic strongman that Mr Trump wants to be.

就連共和黨精英也成了他們的敵人，而特朗普則成了他們的救世主。特朗普是一名億萬富翁，這並不令人感到意外。凱撒(Caesar)是深受民衆擁護的貴族領導人，他卻創造了“凱撒主義”(Caesarism)，即特朗普嚮往的那種富有魅力的強人統治。

A healthy republic does not require equality, far from it. But it does require a degree of mutual sympathy. Sudden wealth from new activities — conquest in ancient Rome, banking in medieval Florence — can corrode social bonds. If civic virtue vanishes, a republic becomes ripe for destruction.

一個健康的共和國不需要平等，完全不需要。但它的確需要一定的同情共感。新活動（例如征服古羅馬以及中世紀佛羅倫薩的銀行業）帶來的突如其來的財富，可能腐蝕社會紐帶。如果公民道德淪喪，共和國隨時就會崩潰。

Economic, social and political changes have brought the US to the point at which a significant part of the population seeks a strongman. It must be sobering to Republican elites that their base chose Mr Trump over Ted Cruz and Mr Cruz over everybody else. The party elite played populist games, notably in their adamant refusal to co-operate with the president. Those better at such games have defeated them.

經濟、社會和政治上的變化讓美國很大一部分人口希望出現一個強人。面對所有共和黨候選人，共和黨基層選民的第一選擇是特朗普，第二選擇是特德•克魯茲(Ted Cruz)，這對共和黨精英肯定無異於當頭棒喝。共和黨精英玩弄過民粹遊戲，尤其是在堅決拒絕與總統合作上。那些更擅長此類遊戲的人打敗了他們。

Mr Trump realises that his supporters have no interest in the limited state beloved of conservatives. Their desire is rather the restoration of lost economic, racial and sexual status. His response is to promise massive tax cuts, sustained spending and reduced debt. But he does not need logical consistency. That is for the despised “lamestream media”.

特朗普明白，他的支持者對保守派鍾情的“小政府”不感興趣。相反，他們希望恢復自己喪失的經濟、種族和性別地位。特朗普的迴應是承諾大規模減稅、持續支出和削減債務。但他不需要邏輯上的連貫性。那些遭到鄙視的“跛腳媒體”（lamestream media，與mainstream（主流媒體）雙關——譯者注）才需要。

Hillary Clinton is a weak candidate, tainted by her husband’s failings and her position in the establishment, and short on political talent. She ought to win but might not. But even if she were to win, that would not end this story.

希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)是個實力較弱的候選人，她丈夫的過錯和她在建制派中的位置對她造成負面影響，她還缺乏政治天賦。她應該會贏得大選，但也可能會輸。但即便她贏得大選，事情也不會就此了結。

Mr Trump has called forth new political possibilities. But it is not mainly an excess of democracy that has brought the US to this pass. It is far more the failings of short-sighted elites. Some of what has happened was right and so should not have been avoided. But much of it could have been. Elites, particularly Republican elites, stoked this fire. It will be hard to put out the blaze.

特朗普激發了新的政治可能性。但美國之所以走到這一步，過度的民主並非主要原因。一個更爲重要的原因是目光短淺的精英階層的失敗。有些已經發生的情況是應該發生的，因此也不應避免。但有許多本可以避免。精英們（尤其是共和黨的精英們）燒旺了這把火，撲滅它將非常困難。