特朗普懲罰中國得不償失

Despite the seeming disarray of his first month in office, President Donald Trump has remarkably kept many of his campaign promises. However, one of his most frequent — naming China as a currency manipulator — is as yet mere words.

儘管上任第一個月似乎給世人帶來了混亂感，但美國總統唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)顯然信守了他的多項競選承諾。然而，他最經常提到的承諾——把中國列爲貨幣操縱國——到現在還未付諸行動。

The new administration is holding back America’s leadership in global governance, as shown by the withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Mr Trump and his close advisers believe bilateral deals are a better way to achieve “America First” — so why are they not chasing China? I believe they have not yet worked out how to gain over China through such pacts.

美國新的行政當局正在收縮美國在全球治理中的領導地位，美國退出《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》(TPP)證明了這一點。特朗普和他的親密顧問認爲，雙邊協定是實現“美國優先”(America first)原則的更佳途徑——那麼，他們爲何沒有對中國採取行動呢？ 我相信，他們是還沒想出如何通過此類協定在中國問題上獲益的方法。

Many in the US hold that China has reaped disproportionate advantages through globalisation, and that millions of American jobs have been lost due to imports from the country. In academic circles, most economists believe this is an inevitable cost of globalisation and the only way out for the US is to shiFT the population from lost jobs to new jobs in high-end services and high-tech industries. Mr Trump and his advisers take a more hawkish view that Beijing has gained by manipulating its currency, suppressing wages, subsidising exporters and disregarding the environment. As a result, it should be punished.

許多美國人認爲，中國從全球化中獲得了過大的好處，從中國進口商品導致數百萬美國人失去了工作。在學術界，多數經濟學家認爲，這是全球化的一種不可避免的代價，美國的唯一出路是把人口從消失的崗位轉移配置到高端服務業和高技術行業的新增崗位上。特朗普和手下顧問持有一種更強硬的觀點：北京方面通過操縱匯率、壓低工資、補貼出口商和忽視環境，獲得了好處。所以，中國應該受到懲罰。

Certainly, the US has ways to punish China. Naming it a currency manipulator alone would make Beijing lose face — which it cares about. Imposing punitive tariffs on Chinese exports and restricting mergers and acquisitions, particularly from state-owned enterprises, are other options. That is why many international observers believe a trade war between the two countries is inevitable.

當然，美國擁有懲罰中國的手段。單單把中國列爲匯率操縱國就會讓中國丟臉——中國很看重臉面。其他手段有：對中國出口徵收懲罰性關稅；限制中國企業、尤其是中國的國企對美國企業發起併購。這就是許多國際觀察人士認定美中之間的貿易戰在所難免的原因。

But what would the US gain by punishing China?

但是，懲罰中國會讓美國得到什麼好處？

Punitive tariffs will hurt US consumers. One of the big advantages of being an American is being able to enjoy the lowest priced goods produced in virtually every corner of the world. Americans buy Chinese goods because they are often the cheapest; making them more expensive might force Americans to buy from other countries, but not necessarily the US.

懲罰性關稅將傷害美國消費者。身爲美國人的一大優勢，是能夠享受到世界幾乎每個角落生產出來的最低價商品。美國人購買中國商品，是因爲後者的價格經常是最低的；讓中國商品變得更貴，也許會迫使美國人去購買其他國家的產品，但未必是美國本國產品。

Such measures will not help American workers, either. The kind of jobs that would be targeted are not likely to return to the US. Apple’s iPhone causes several billion dollars of deficit for America’s trade with China. But, suppose Apple moves the iPhone factories to the US; will there be enough Americans willing to work on the assembly lines even in the jobs left by increased automation?

這類措施也幫不到美國工人。這類措施意欲奪回的工作崗位不太可能回到美國。蘋果(Apple)的iPhone給美國的對華貿易造成數十億美元的逆差。但是，假如蘋果把iPhone工廠搬到美國，會有足夠多的美國人願意待在裝配線上，哪怕是從事自動化仍未替代的工作嗎？

Finally, American companies will not gain — indeed, many will be hurt. Some 40 per cent of the Chinese trade surplus with the US is created by American companies operating in China (another 20 per cent is created by other foreign companies working in China). If Chinese exporters are penalised, those companies will also be punished. And, if China retaliates, companies on both sides will lose.

最後，美國公司不會得利——事實上，許多美國公司將受損。在中國對美貿易順差中，大約40%是由在華經營的美國公司創造出來的（另有20%是其他在華經營的外資公司創造的）。如果中國出口商受到懲罰，那麼那些公司也將受到懲罰。如果中國發起報復，中美兩國企業都會蒙受損失。

That the Trump administration has not devised a strategy to deal with China is certainly due in part to those uncertainties. A rational person does not hurt others for the joy of it. Mr Trump has to find ways to make China yield to American interests — he has to come up with deals that advance mutual gains. Here are some of them.

特朗普政府尚未制定出與中國打交道的戰略，在一定程度上當然是因爲那些不確定性。理智的人不會爲了傷害別人的快感而去做這件事。特朗普必須想方設法讓中國順從美國的利益——他必須拿出對雙方都有好處的交易。以下是一些這樣的交易。

First, the two countries can sit down and talk about the exchange rate. Mr Trump accuses China of manipulating the renminbi. In one and half years, Beijing has lost about $1tn in foreign reserves defending the value of the currency. The two countries have a common interest in preventing further devaluation of the renminbi, creating opportunities for monetary co-ordination such as a slower pace of US interest rate rises and tighter border control of Chinese capital outflows.

首先，兩國可以坐下來，談談匯率問題。特朗普指責中國操縱人民幣匯率。在一年半時間裏，中國已經爲保衛人民幣匯率損耗了約1萬億美元的外匯儲備。兩國在防止人民幣進一步貶值、創造機會來協調兩國的貨幣政策（比如美國放慢加息步伐、中國收緊對資本外流的邊境管控）方面擁有共同利益。

Second, talks on a bilateral investment treaty should be revived. The bottleneck is the “negative list” of sectors in which China would continue to restrict foreign investment. There are still many irrational regulations governing the Chinese economy, including those restricting foreign investment in high-end services. A short negative list would help American companies because high-end services are arguably one of the US’s strong points. In addition, the BIT will smooth the path of Chinese companies in the US and encourage them to invest more there.

其次，應當恢復關於《雙邊投資協定》(BIT)的談判。瓶頸在於一份“負面清單”，中國將繼續限制外資進入這份清單上的行業。目前中國經濟仍然受制於很多不理性的監管規定，包括那些限制外資進入高端服務業的監管規定。縮短負面清單會對美國公司有所幫助，因爲高端服務業可以說是美國的強項之一。此外，《雙邊投資協定》將爲中國企業在美經營鋪平道路，並會鼓勵中國企業加大對美投資力度。

Third, the two should sign a free-trade agreement. Mr Trump may find this idea unappealing now but it would open China’s door to American exports. The US door has long been open to Chinese exports, first under the “most favoured nations” arrangement, then under the World Trade Organisation. But China maintains high tariffs on imported consumer goods. Its people are becoming richer and more able to buy foreign goods; the rebalancing of the economy is under way; and domestic consumption is increasing. The country is set to become a big consumer goods market and an FTA with the US would now benefit American companies more than Chinese ones.

最後，兩國應當簽訂一份自由貿易協定。眼下，特朗普也許會覺得這個主張沒有吸引力，但它將爲美國對華出口打開大門。長期以來，中國對美出口的大門一直敞開着——最早是通過“最惠國”安排，接着通過世界貿易組織(WTO)。但是，中國仍對進口消費品徵收高關稅。中國人開始變得更富有，也更有能力購買外國商品；經濟再平衡正在進行中；國內消費在增加。中國定將成爲一個很大的消費品市場，如今簽署自由貿易協定將對美國企業、而不是中國企業更有利。

If, as he claims, President Trump is a dealmaker, such moves will appeal to him. And as the Chinese are also good dealmakers, with pragmatism an inherent part of their culture, Sino-US trade relations can be much brighter than has seemed likely.

如果特朗普如他聲稱的那樣，是一個善於做交易的人，那麼上述舉措將對他產生吸引力。鑑於中國人也很善於做交易（實用主義是中國文化的固有組成部分），中美貿易關係可以比看起來的更光明。

Yao Yang is dean of the National School of Development at Peking University and director of the China Center for Economic Research

本文作者是北京大學(Beijing University)國家發展研究院院長、中國經濟研究中心主任