特朗普爲美國工人叫屈有道理嗎

North America’s share of global output has fallen much less than that of Europe or Latin America over the past 20 years, undermining US President Donald Trump’s claims that unfair trade deals have been detrimental to American workers in particular.

過去20年裏，北美在全球產出中所佔份額的降幅遠遠小於歐洲或拉美，這削弱了美國總統唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)關於不公平貿易協議尤其不利於美國工人的說法。

Since 1997, North America’s share of global output has fallen from 28.5 per cent of the total to a forecast 24.1 per cent this year, a decline of 15 per cent, according to data from Euromonitor, a research group.

研究集團歐睿(Euromonitor)的數據顯示，自1997年以來，北美在全球產出中所佔份額從28.5%持續下降，今年預計降至24.1%，總降幅爲15%。

But western Europe’s share has slumped 31 per cent over the same period, with its share set to fall below 20 per cent for the first time in 2017, compared with 29.1 per cent in 1997. Latin America has fared almost as badly, with its share slumping by more than a quarter to 5.1 per cent.

但同期西歐所佔的份額下降了31%，在1997年爲29.1%，而2017年預計將首次降至20%以下。拉美的情況幾乎同樣糟糕，其佔比下降逾四分之一，今年將降至5.1%。

All are grappling with the growing power of Asian economies, which are on track to account for 40 per cent of global output this year, up from 26.3 per cent in 1997.

所有地區都在努力應對亞洲經濟體實力不斷增強的局面。今年，亞洲佔全球產出的份額料將達到40%，高於1997年的26.3%。

“The shift of the past 20 years has been the expansion of global supply chains which saw the integration of Asia, especially China, into the global manufacturing sector,” said William Jackson, senior emerging market economist at Capital Economics.

“過去20年中出現的變化是全球供應鏈擴張，亞洲、尤其是中國融入了全球製造業，”凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)高級新興市場經濟學家威廉?傑克遜(William Jackson)說。

Mr Trump has claimed that “horrible” trade deals signed by his predecessors allowed American jobs to slip away to Mexico and China, and called the move to quit the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership deal a “great thing for the American worker”. But the data suggest other European and Latin American nations have lost out much more.

特朗普聲稱，他的前任們簽署的“可怕”貿易協議讓美國的工作崗位得以流向墨西哥和中國，退出有12國簽署的《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》(TPP)“對美國工人而言是偉大的事情”。但數據表明，歐洲和拉美國家失去的更多。

Indre Cesniene, head of industrial research at Euromonitor, said: “In 2017?.?.?.?Asia will account for 70 per cent of all high-tech goods produced globally, with virtually all major companies having production capacities in the region.”

歐睿工業研究主管因德雷?切斯尼內(Indre Cesniene)說：“2017年……在全球生產的所有高科技產品中，亞洲將佔到70%，幾乎所有大公司都在該地區擁有生產能力。”

Asia also accounts for more than half of global production of intermediate goods and machinery. Across manufacturing as a whole, Asia is forecast to have a 45.5 per cent share this year.

在全球的中間產品和機械生產領域，亞洲所佔份額也在50%以上。就整個製造業而言，亞洲今年預計佔到45.5%的份額。

Separate figures from the UN suggest that, between 1990-2015, China went from the world’s 8th-largest manufacturer to its largest, South Korea from 12th to fifth, India from 14th to sixth, and Indonesia from 18th to 11th.

來自聯合國(UN)的數據則表明，從1990年到2015年期間，中國從世界第8製造業大國上升至第一位，韓國從第12位升至第5位，印度從第14位升至第6位，印尼從第18位升至第11位。

Asia remains far weaker in service sectors, however, accounting for less than a quarter of turnover in areas such as finance and insurance, and business services.

然而，亞洲在服務業方面仍然較弱，在金融保險和商業服務等領域的營收總額中佔比不足四分之一。

Euromonitor estimated that Asia’s share of global output will grow further, to almost 49 per cent of the total by 2025, with a 75 per cent share in sectors such as textiles and transportation equipment.

歐睿估計，亞洲在全球產出中所佔份額將進一步增長，到2025年將達到近49%，在紡織品和運輸設備等行業的份額將達75%。

But Mr Jackson said this advance was “unlikely to continue at the same pace,” given rising protectionism and the fact that one-off boosts such as China joining the World Trade Organisation in 2001 cannot be repeated. “We’re already seeing signs that the integration of manufacturing supply chains has probably reached a peak,” he said.

但傑克遜表示，鑑於保護主義加劇以及中國2001年加入世界貿易組織(WTO)等一次性刺激不可重複，這種進步“不太可能以同樣的速度繼續下去”。“我們已看到製造業供應鏈的整合可能已經見頂的跡象，”他說。

Ms Cesniene said she did not envisage Mr Trump making much of a dent in Asia’s rise, arguing that manufacturers, such as automakers, want to be in the region as it is increasingly where their customers are based.

切斯尼內表示，她預計特朗普不會對亞洲崛起造成很大打擊。她辯稱，製造商（如汽車製造商）想要在亞洲立足，因爲他們在那裏的客戶越來越多。

The figures are based on national accounts data and industry surveys, standardised by Euromonitor to strip out computational and methodological differences.

上述數字基於國民賬戶數據和行業調查，歐睿對數據進行了標準化處理，以消除計算和方法上的差異。