時事新聞:金正恩的兩難選擇
"Young general" in quandary over reform.
金正恩的兩難選擇。
When David Austin, North Korea programme director at Mercy Corps, a US aid agency, visited a hospital in North Pyongan in February to monitor newborn babies, it was so cold in the building that the ink froze in his pen. In one of the icy maternity wards, six new mothers were huddled together under blankets spread across four beds. Even though none of their babies was premature, each child weighed less than two kilos.
美國援助機構美慈組織(Mercy Corps)朝鮮項目主管戴維•奧斯汀(David Austin) 2月份參觀了朝鮮平安北道的一家醫院，探視那裏的新生兒情況。當時，醫院大樓裏非常寒冷，連奧斯汀鋼筆裏的墨水都凍住了。在一間冷得像冰窖一樣的產科病房裏，四張病牀拼成了一張大牀。在大牀上，六位剛生完孩子的母親合蓋着幾條搭在一起的毯子，擠作一團取暖。儘管她們的寶寶誰也不是早產，但每個都不到兩公斤重。
His visit to the hospital illustrates two of the most pressing concerns for the isolated country's economy: power supplies are moribund and malnutrition is rampant. With an annual cereal shortfall of about 1m tonnes, the UN estimates that about a quarter of the population is starving.
奧斯汀在這個與世隔絕國家的醫院看到的情形，暴露出該國經濟最緊迫的兩個問題：電力供應幾近中斷，營養不良現象十分嚴重。朝鮮每年的糧食缺口約爲100萬噸，據聯合國(UN)估算，約四分之一的朝鮮人在餓肚子。
Observers are closely watching Kim Jong-eun, North Korea’s new leader, to determine how he will confront these problems.
觀察人士正密切關注朝鮮新領袖金正恩(Kim Jong-eun)的新動向，以判斷他會如何應對這些問題。
"Economic reform is difficult as it endangers the stability of the regime," says Jo Dong-ho, a North Korea expert at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. Kim Jong-eun will be keenly aware that a landmark currency revaluation in 2009 by his father, Kim Jong-il, who died last Saturday, backfired dangerously, sparking market closures and unprecedented dissent.
韓國首爾梨花女子大學(Ewha Womans University)的朝鮮問題專家Jo Dong-ho表示：“搞經濟改革很難，因爲它會威脅政權的穩定性。”2009年，金正日(Kim Jong-il)推行了里程碑式的貨幣改革，造成了危險的後果，導致許多市場關閉並引發前所未有的民衆抗議。作爲金正日的兒子，金正恩肯定對此印象深刻。
While the Kim family has historically been able to crush any protest, hunger appears to be presenting the regime with increasing challenges. Clandestine footage from inside North Korea shows rising numbers of "drifting swallows" — emaciated children who beg at railway stations and scour fields for roots and berries.
儘管金氏家族在粉碎民衆抗議方面戰無不勝，但飢餓對朝鮮政權構成的挑戰似乎越來越嚴峻。祕密拍攝於朝鮮的視頻顯示，“流浪的燕子”越來越多。“流浪的燕子”指的是一些瘦骨嶙峋孩子，他們在火車站乞討，或在田野裏搜尋可以吃的草根和漿果。
Mr Austin said the food supply had deteriorated sharply between February and September this year. People reported the state distribution system gave them 150g of food a day — the equivalent of a potato — which was less than half of what they received in February. Spot inspections of maize fields showed much of the crop had failed.
奧斯汀說，今年2月至9月間，朝鮮糧食供應情況嚴重惡化。據朝鮮人稱，政府設定的每人每日糧食定額是150克（相當於一個土豆），比2月份時的定額少了一半以上。對朝鮮多塊玉米地的實地考察結果顯示，收成狀況非常糟糕。
"It was creepy the extent to which people were transfixed by the memory of when they last ate protein. They could remember to the day when they last had an egg or tofu," he said.
奧斯汀說：“朝鮮人非常清楚地記得自己上一次吃蛋白質食品的時間，這不禁令人不寒而慄。他們記得自己上一次吃雞蛋或豆腐的準確日期。”
With meagre public supplies, people are becoming increasingly reliant on allotments, where they can grow their own food and raise small animals. North Korean defector groups say life has got harder since Kim Jong-il died because many markets have closed for official mourning. The price of rice has risen by about a third, they say.
由於公共渠道供應不足，朝鮮人越來越依賴他們的自留地——他們能在上面種點糧食，養點小牲畜。脫北者團體表示，金正日去世後，朝鮮人的生活變得更加艱難，因爲官方關閉了許多市場、以示哀悼。這些團體表示，大米價格上漲了約三分之一。
Power is also reaching critical lows. Electricity consumption is just over a third of the levels seen two decades ago. Forests have been hacked down for fuel, triggering frequent landslides and flooding that in turn have helped disable many of the country's coal mines. North Korea lacks the pumping technology to empty many swamped pits.
電力供應也逼近臨界低位。朝鮮今天的用電量只有20年前的三分之一多一點。爲獲取燃料，朝鮮人砍伐了大片森林，導致泥石流和洪災頻發，進而造成許多煤礦被淹。因缺乏抽水技術，朝鮮許多被淹的礦井得不到清理。
One foreign witness said conditions at open cast mines were also grim, with antiquated excavators digging out "appallingly low-quality coals". "We came across several hundred women shovelling dirt around as part of a rebuilding project there — they were obviously cheaper than an excavator — but whether they were there voluntarily, as paid employees, or as part of a 'social duty', or even as punishment, I never could work out," he said.
一位外國目擊者表示，露天煤礦的狀況也很糟糕，老掉牙的挖掘機在那裏挖出的煤炭“品質低得嚇人”。他說：“我們看到幾百名婦女手持鐵鍬剷土，幫助在那裏重建一個項目。她們顯然比挖掘機更廉價。至於她們在那裏到底是義務勞動、還是領工資、抑或是在盡部分‘社會責任’、甚至是在接受什麼懲罰，我根本分辨不出來。”
Last month, Seoul's central bank estimated North Korea's gross national income was Won30tn ($22bn) in 2010, one-fortieth of South Korea's level. The lion's share of state spending goes into the North's 1m-man army, uranium enrichment and atomic missile programme.
上月，韓國央行估計，去年朝鮮的國內生產總值(GDP)爲30萬億韓元(合220億美元)，是韓國的四十分之一。朝鮮大部分政府支出流向該國100萬人的軍隊、鈾濃縮和核導彈計劃。
North Korean state media reported last year that Kim Jong-il was trying to accelerate the production of vinylon, an indigenous synthetic fabric. Despite this effort to boost textiles, overall economic output slid 0.5 per cent during 2010, according to Seoul's central bank.
朝鮮官方媒體去年報道，金正日試圖加速維尼綸的生產。維尼綸是朝鮮自力更生髮展出的一種化纖面料。根據韓國央行的數據，儘管朝鮮努力促進紡織業的發展，該國整體經濟產出去年仍下滑0.5%。
The economy is pinched by sanctions and international security forces have become more adept at seizing the country's illegal arms exports, which were a key source of dollars. Instead, Pyongyang has even turned to cybercrime scams to gain hard currency.
朝鮮經濟深受制裁的影響，國際安全部隊在扣留朝鮮非法武器出口（這是朝鮮獲取美元的一條關鍵途徑）方面已變得更爲熟練。作爲對策，朝鮮現在甚至改用網絡犯罪欺詐來獲取硬通貨。
Facing such heavy economic pressures, many analysts think Kim Jong-eun, "the young general", has no choice but to open up his country further to China. Beijing acts as the country's lifeline, but it never successfully developed the major commercial concessions it wanted from Kim Jong-il.
面對如此沉重的經濟壓力，很多分析人士認爲，“年輕的將軍”金正恩別無選擇，只有進一步向中國敞開國門。中國扮演着朝鮮生命線的角色，但從未成功從金正日那裏獲得它想要的重大商業特權。
Beijing wants to develop a port on the east of North Korea to give landlocked north-eastern China greater access to global trade. It also wants more concessions to North Korea's rich reserves of minerals — including magnesite and gold — that Seoul estimated two years ago were worth $6tn.
中國政府希望在朝鮮東部開發一個港口，以讓中國東北內陸地區能夠更多地參與全球貿易。中國還希望獲得朝鮮豐富礦產資源的更多開採權，其中包括菱鎂礦和金礦。韓國政府兩年前估計，朝鮮的礦產資源總計價值6萬億美元。
Beijing has tried to develop special investment enclaves in North Korea since the early 1990s, but there is little sign of major commercialisation. This year the two countries announced the start of work on new economic development zones in North Korea, but progress has faltered. Still, South Korea estimates Pyongyang's external trade, 80 per cent of which is with China, rose to $4.2bn in 2010 from $3.4bn a year earlier.
自上世紀90年代初以來，中國政府一直試圖在朝鮮開發特別投資區，但迄今那裏幾乎沒有絲毫大規模商業化的跡象。今年，中朝兩國宣佈啓動位於朝鮮的新經濟開發區項目，但進展緩慢。儘管如此，據韓國估計，去年朝鮮對外貿易額已從上一年的34億美元增至42億美元。對華貿易佔朝鮮對外貿易的80%。
However, any increased dependence on China is also seen as risky in Pyongyang and change is unlikely to be sudden. North Korea is traditionally highly suspicious of any foreign investment that could promote social change and increase any popular questioning of the ruling family's legitimacy.
不過，朝鮮同時也認爲對中國加大依賴是危險的，它不太可能一夜之間改變政策。傳統而言，朝鮮對任何可能推動社會變革、強化公衆對金氏統治家族合法性質疑的外國投資都持嚴重懷疑態度。
"Opening up is always limited to the extent that North Korean society has to be protected from foreign influence," says Yang Moo-jin, a professor at Seoul's University of North Korean Studies.
首爾朝鮮研究大學(University of North Korean Studies)教授楊武仁(Yang Moo-jin)表示：“開放總是受到某種程度的限制，以使朝鮮社會不受外國影響。”
