中國人不願結婚 經濟與家庭觀念面臨考驗

HONG KONG — Liu Zhenfeng got married at 25.

香港——劉振鳳在25歲結了婚。

The usual trappings of family life followed — a daughter, a home, furniture, toys.

婚姻的標配也隨之而來——女兒、住宅、傢俱、玩具。

That daughter, Song Zongpei, now 28, is taking a different path.

如今，她28歲的女兒宋宗佩則在選擇一條不同的路。

Ms Song shares a rented apartment in Beijing with two roommates and is focusing on her career and her finances.

宋宗佩在北京與兩名室友合租了一套公寓，目前將精力放在職業發展和財力累積上。

She does not see marriage or motherhood in her immediate future.

她覺得自己短時間內不會結婚生子。

At this stage, the most important thing for me is personal development, Ms Song said.

在目前這個階段，對我來說最重要的是個人發展，宋宗佩說。

Fewer Chinese people are getting married, a shift with profound implications for China’s economic and social life.

選擇結婚的中國人正在變少。對中國的經濟、社會生活而言，這是一個影響深遠的轉變。

The decline in marriages means a decline in the number of babies, and potentially less spending on homes, appliances and other family-related purchases — the kind of spending China needs to drive economic growth.

結婚人數下降，意味着嬰兒人數減少，住宅、家電及其他與家庭相關的消費就可能會隨之收縮，而這類消費正是推動中國經濟增長所需要的。

Already some businesses are thinking single.

一些企業已經把目光瞄準了單身人士。

Jewelry makers are offering cheaper baubles for unmarried sweethearts.

珠寶商在給未婚情侶提供價格更合算的首飾。

One appliance maker is selling smaller rice cookers.

一個家電生產商推出了容量更小的電飯煲。

Foreign fertility services are advertising for Chinese women who want to freeze their eggs — a process that is prohibited for single women in China — to have children later.

境外生育服務機構開始向想要冷凍卵子以便將來生育孩子的中國女性做廣告。法規禁止單身女性在國內接受這項服務。

But the marriage slump — caused in large part by China’s aging population and the legacy of its harsh one-child policy — has a silver lining.

但結婚人數下降也有積極的一面。

It also stems from the rise of an educated population of women.

引起這種狀況的很大一部分原因，在於中國人口老齡化和嚴厲的獨生子女政策，但它也與中國受教育女性羣體的壯大有關。

Specialists in economics, demography and sociology say some of those women are delaying marriage to build careers and establish financial footing, resulting in a more empowered female population that no longer views marriage as the only route to security.

經濟學、人口學和社會學領域的專家表示，其中一些女性在推遲結婚時間，以便發展事業和建立財務根基，結果出現了力量更強大的女性人口，她們不再將婚姻作爲獲得安全感的唯一途徑。

Because they are highly educated, they hold well-paid jobs, they lose the financial incentive to get married, says Zhang Xiaobo, a professor of economics at Peking University’s National School of Development.

因爲她們受教育程度比較高，又有不錯的收入，就失去了結婚的經濟動力，北京大學國家發展研究院經濟學教授張曉波說。

China continues to emphasize marriage in its official media, entreating women not to wait for Mr Right.

中國持續在其官方媒體上強調婚姻的重要性，懇求女性不要乾等自己的白馬王子。

But demographics and changing social mores make that a tough sell.

但人口結構和不斷變化的社會狀況令女性很難接受這種宣傳。

Last year, 12 million Chinese couples registered for marriage, making it the second consecutive year the number has declined.

去年有1200萬對中國情侶註冊結婚，這一數字連續第二年出現下降。

Divorces, which stem from some of the same trends, reached 3.8 million last year, more than twice the level of a decade ago.

與這一趨勢一致的是，去年離婚的夫婦達到380萬對，比10年前的兩倍還多。

Much of the marriage decline results from China’s one-child policy.

新婚人數下降，很大程度上要歸因於中國的獨生子女政策。

Ended formally in January after 35 years, the policy accelerated a decline in the country’s birthrate.

在推行35年之後，該政策於今年1月正式終止。

As a consequence, people between 20 and 29 — prime marrying age — make up a declining share of the population compared with two decades ago.

它加快了中國生育率下降的速度，由此導致20至29歲——主要的適婚年齡段——的人口比例較20年前不斷下降。

And because families often preferred male babies, China has a surplus of men, further complicating marriage prospects.

此外，因爲中國家庭往往傾向於要男孩，導致男性人口過多，令結婚的前景變得更加複雜。

Those trends test cultural notions of family that go back hundreds of years.

這些趨勢考驗着延續了數百年的家庭文化觀念。

While arranged marriages have largely faded in China, parents remain deeply involved in the nuptials of their offspring, chasing down leads on potential suitors and hounding their children during holiday visits about marriage plans.

儘管包辦婚姻在中國大體已經逐漸消失，但中國父母依然深度介入兒女婚姻，他們追查可能爲潛在追求者的線索，在兒女在節假日回家時纏問其婚姻計劃。

Ms Liu, Ms Song’s mother, agrees that her daughter should wait for the right match, but she still hopes that she finds someone.

宋宗佩的母親劉振鳳也認爲女兒應該等待那個合適自己的人，但她仍然希望女兒有個伴。

I want her to have a happy life, Ms Liu said, and I think it’s more secure to have a family.

我希望她能過得幸福，劉貞鳳說，我覺得有個家庭更保險。

On the economic front, the impact could be double-edged.

在經濟方面，這種影響是一把雙刃劍。

Single people generally buy fewer houses, have fewer children and buy fewer toys and gadgets than married couples.

通常而言，單身人士會比已婚夫婦更少買房，生更少的孩子，購入更少的玩具和設備。

That could complicate China’s efforts to turn its traditionally tightfisted population into American-style spenders, to offset its economy’s dependence on exports and big-ticket government projects.

中國正努力把本國向來吝於花錢的人口變成美式消費者，以便讓經濟不那麼依賴出口和大型政府項目，這些努力可能會因此而複雜化。

It could also lead Chinese consumers to put more money away in the bank or under mattresses.

它還可能導致中國消費者把更多錢放在銀行裏或牀墊下。

Families of prospective grooms in China often save money for years to buy a home for a couple before they marry to give them financial stability.

在中國，準新郎家常常要存很多年錢，在一對新人婚前爲其買下婚房，保障其財務的穩定性。

Families save more, to buy bigger homes, if brides are hard to find, said Mr Zhang, the Peking University professor.

北京大學教授張曉波說，如果新娘很難找，新郎家就要存更多的錢，買更大的房子。

But Chinese consumers could simply spend money on something else — with single young people leading the pack.

但是中國消費者完全可以把錢花在別的地方——這其中帶頭的就是單身年輕人。

Some of the decline in marriage stems from the growth of a group of young, educated urban women who no longer need to wed to achieve financial security.

結婚率的下降在一定程度上是由於受過教育的城市年輕女性羣體在增長，她們不再需要通過婚姻實現穩定的經濟狀況。

China still faces yawning gaps in wages and employment between men and women, according to surveys.

調查研究表明，中國的工資和就業仍存在性別鴻溝。

But women made up more than half of undergraduate students in 2014, compared with about 46 percent a decade earlier, and accounted for nearly half of graduate students, government figures show.

但是政府數據顯示，2014年大學本科生中女性佔比超過一半，相比之下10年前只佔46%，而研究生中佔比接近一半。

Cheng Guping, a 30-year-old from Hangzhou in eastern China who works at a start-up and is pursuing a doctorate in economics, is one of those women.

現年30歲的程谷萍來自中國東部城市杭州，在一家創業公司上班，同時還在攻讀經濟學博士，她就屬於這樣一種女性。

She cited her professional and educational obligations as the reason she and a recent boyfriend broke up.

她說自己在職業和教育上的責任是近日與男朋友分手的原因。

I felt that our level of affection wasn’t enough yet, she said.

我感覺我們之間的感情還不夠，她說。

I want to see how far I can go on my own.

我想看看我一個人能走多遠。

Suitable mates are simply hard to find, said Ms Cheng, who describes many men her age as not mature or irresponsible.

程谷萍說找到合適的伴侶實在太難了，她說許多她這個年齡的男性不夠成熟，不夠有責任感。

Referring to another former boyfriend, she said: When we wanted to do something, or go for food, he only liked to act cute and say with a smile, ‘We’ll do whatever you like.’ It made me feel like I had a son.

在提到另一位前男友時，她說：當我們一起想要做點什麼或者吃飯的時候，他只會賣萌地笑，說‘你想怎麼樣都好’，這讓我感覺像有個兒子一樣。

Businesses are preparing for the shift.

商業正在準備迎接這種轉變。

The jewelry industry expects sales growth to slow in China as marriage declines.

隨着中國的結婚率下降，珠寶產業預計會出現增長放緩。

In response, many stores are offering a greater variety of jewelry, such as cheaper gems to entice dating couples who have less money.

爲此許多商鋪在增加珠寶的品類，比如更廉價的寶石，以吸引那些正在約會但財力有限的情侶。

Even though they are not getting married, said Annie Yau Tse, the chief executive of Tse Sui Luen, a jewelry chain based in Hong Kong, people still need someone to be with them, and they still want love.

即使不結婚，香港珠寶連鎖謝瑞麟的行政總裁謝邱安儀說，人們還是需要找個人在一起，還是需要愛。

Jiajiashun, an online property agent, said it was planning to sell less expensive housing to cater to single buyers.

在線房地產中介公司家家順稱其計劃面向單身買家出售一些較便宜的住房。

Midea, a Chinese appliance maker, has been expanding its range of smaller rice cookers — giving singles a way to make fresh rice and avoid the refrigerated leftovers that leave many Chinese cold.

在過去一段時間，中國電器生產商美的擴充了小型電飯煲的產品線——讓單身人士可以烹製新鮮的米飯，並且不會吃不完，很多中國人不喜歡吃冰箱冷藏過的剩飯。

We are concerned about the changes in family structures in China, according to Huang Bing, chief product manager of Midea’s small domestic appliances division.

我們對中國家庭結構的改變是很關注的，美的生活電器事業部首席產品經理黃兵說。

In Chinese homes, the shift raises questions about family ties and filial responsibilities.

這場轉變，給中國家庭帶來了家庭紐帶和贍養義務方面的困惑。

For example, married couples in China traditionally care for aging parents.

例如，中國已婚夫婦傳統上是需要照料老人的。

Wu Jingjing, 29, can see the burden that the aging population could be for her generation.

現年29歲的武京京看到，人口老齡化可能會成爲她這一代人的負擔。

There’s a group of people who will feel very much crushed by being in the middle layer, being the pillar of a family while raising both the children and their parents, said Ms Wu, who works for an internet company.

中間有一個夾層會很崩潰，當他們成爲家裏的支柱的時候，他們又要養育子女又要贍養老人，在一家互聯網公司工作的吳晶晶說。

I think that sense of collapse will happen in 10 or 20 years.

我認爲這種崩潰感在10年或20年之後就會發生。

Her mother worries about who will care for her daughter if she does not marry.

她的母親擔心如果她不結婚，到時候就沒人照料了。

We can still care for her now, but we won’t be here forever, Zhai Liping, 53, said.

我們現在還能關心她，但是我們也不會永遠在這兒，現年53歲的翟利萍說。

We hope she will find someone who cares for her, so we can feel more reassured.

我們還是希望她能找到一個人去關心她，這樣我們也會更放心。

Still, Ms Wu is single and she said she is still determined to wait until she meets the right person.

目前仍單身的武京京說，她一定要等遇到合適的人再說。

Back in the old times, many people met because they were introduced and just wanted to find a partner to live through everyday life, she said.

他們那個年代，很多人是通過介紹認識的，他們就是搭夥過日子爲主，她說。

There were very few people who had a free relationship based on love.

自由戀愛的人很少。

Now lots of people reject that kind of old attitude and want to find the suitable person.

現在這代人可能都比較排斥這種搭夥過日子的態度，大家都比較想找到一個更合適的人。