美國經濟優勢面臨風險

Ask people who remain positive about America’s long-term economic future about the reasons for their optimism and many will point to three unique selling points of the country: entrepreneurial spirit, world-class educational institutions and the depth of its financial capital markets.

如果問問那些仍然看好美國長期經濟前景的人爲什麼這麼樂觀，很多人就會指出美國特有的三個優勢：創業精神、世界級教育機構及其金融資本市場的深度。

There is no question that US entrepreneurial spirit has set itself apart from both developing and developed countries over many decades. America is the home of Silicon Valley and the companies that lead the world of technological innovation — encapsulated in the highly valuable technology stocks of the Fangs: Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google. The big consumer names of Coca-Cola, McDonald’s and Starbucks continue to dominate their markets globally, as do the automotive giants — Ford, General Motors and now Tesla — and industrial and aeronautical behemoths such as General Electric and Boeing.

毫無疑問，好幾十年來，不論是和發展中國家還是發達國家相比，美國的創業精神都是出類拔萃的。美國是硅谷的所在地，擁有引領着全球技術創新的衆多企業，體現於Fang這樣市值極高的科技股：Facebook、亞馬遜(Amazon)、Netflix和谷歌(Google)。可口可樂(Coca-Cola)、麥當勞(McDonald’s)和星巴克(Starbucks)這些響噹噹的消費品牌繼續在全球主宰着各自的市場，汽車巨頭們也一樣——福特(Ford)、通用汽車(General Motors)以及如今的特斯拉(Tesla)——還有像通用電氣(General Electric)和波音(Boeing)這樣的工業、航空業巨擘。

The country’s educational institutions also retain their pre-eminence in terms of research and development, and as innovators in medicine, technology and telecommunications.

在研發方面，尤其是在醫學、技術及電信領域的創新方面，美國的教育機構也保持着首屈一指的地位。

Finally, ?S financial capital markets are the global benchmark for breadth and depth in providing liquidity to established companies and fuelling funding for start-ups.

最後，無論是爲成熟企業提供流動資金還是爲初創企業融資，美國金融資本市場的廣度和深度也都成爲全球基準。

But for how much longer can America retain its leadership in these three areas? There are growing signs that its status in each is being challenged.

但美國在這三個領域的領先地位還能維持多久？越來越多的跡象表明，在以上每個領域，美國的地位都面臨着挑戰。

Take entrepreneurship and business, where its dominance faces competition from the growing power of corporate China. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank now occupy the top two positions of the Forbes Global 2,000, an annual ranking that reflects not just market capitalisation but also sales, profit and assets. In the 2017 list, Chinese corporates hold four places in the top 10 with one from Japan and five from the US.

拿創業和企業來說，日益強大的中國企業給美國的主導地位帶來了競爭壓力。中國工商銀行(ICBC)與中國建設銀行(CCB)如今佔據着《福布斯》全球2000強(Forbes Global 2,000)榜單的前兩名，這一年度排名不僅體現企業的市值，還反映其銷售、利潤及資產情況。2017年榜單的前10名中，中國企業佔了4個位置，另外還有1家日本企業及5家美國企業。

Even more worrying is the long-term decline in entrepreneurship. According to the think-tank New America, the number of new employer-created businesses in the US halved between 1977 and 2010 (from 35 per 10,000 Americans to 17 per 10,000). The share of self-employed Americans dropped by 20 per cent from 1991-2010.

更令人擔憂的是創業精神的長期衰退。據智庫“新美國”(New America)介紹，從1977年至2010年，美國新僱主創建的企業數量減半（從每1萬個美國人創辦35家企業，降至每1萬個美國人創辦17家企業）。從1991年至2010年，美國自僱人士所佔比例下降了20%。

More recent data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics suggest a revival in entrepreneurship from 2010-2015, with a 23 per cent rise in the number of business establishments less than a year old. Crucially, however, those are supporting 1m fewer jobs — only 3m in 2015 compared with more than 4m 20 years ago.

美國勞工統計局(US Bureau of Labor Statistics)近年的數據似乎顯示，從2010年至2015年期間，創業有所回溫，成立不滿一年的企業數量上升了23%。然而，關鍵問題在於，這些企業提供的就業崗位減少了100萬個——2015年僅提供了300萬個就業崗位，而在20年前創業產生的就業機會有400多萬個。

Meanwhile, in 2016, for the first time in 12 years, the Times Higher Education global rankings for universities showed that the number one slot went outside the US (to the University of Oxford). Furthermore, the survey highlights the surge of Chinese universities, especially in the field of engineering and technology: China now has 35 institutions in the top 100 engineering and tech rankings, up from just seven in 2016.

與此同時，2016年位列“泰晤士報高等教育世界大學排行榜”(Times Higher Education World University Rankings)首位的學府，12年來首次花落美國以外的大學：牛津大學(University of Oxford)。此外，中國的大學也異軍突起，特別是在工程技術領域：目前，在全球100所頂級工程技術院校中，有35家中國高校，而2016年只有7家。

The number of foreign students at American higher education institutions has grown to more 1m today. However, there is evidence of a slowing of growth in new applications and enrolments. According to the Institute of Internal Education, the number of new international students enrolling in 2016-17 fell 3 per cent from 2015-16. In the same period, the number of Indians applying for the F1 student visa declined 16 per cent.

如今，在美國高校就讀的外國學生已有100多萬。然而，新增申請者和入學者的數量都有放緩跡象。美國國際教育協會（Institute of International Education，簡稱IIE）表示，2016-17學年入學的國際學生人數比上一年下降了3%。與此同時，申請F1學生簽證的印度申請者人數下降了16%。

This is worrying because, traditionally, Indians have formed a large proportion of science, technology, engineering and maths (Stem) student ranks. According to the World Economic Forum and the National Center for Educational Statistics respectively, 568,000 Stem graduates, and 1.9m bachelor degrees were awarded in the US in 2015. These numbers, though not precisely like for like, indicate that Stem graduates make up roughly 30 per cent of graduates in the US.

這很令人擔憂，因爲以往科學、技術、工程與數學(STEM)專業的學生中有很大一部分都來自印度。世界經濟論壇(World Economic Forum)和美國國家教育統計中心(National Center for Educational Statistics)的數據分別顯示，2015年美國有56.8萬名STEM專業畢業生，同時有190萬人獲得學士學位。雖然這些數字嚴格說來並不可比，但足以顯示STEM專業畢業生約佔美國大學畢業生總數的30%。

IIE data show 80 per cent of the more than 130,000 Indian students in the US are enrolled in Stem degrees. But many are returning home after graduating, leaving America’s economy without the benefit of the skills and knowledge they have acquired. This is in large part down to the caps on visas and difficulties foreign graduates have in securing a green card.

IIE的數據顯示，在美國的逾13萬印度學生中，有80%在攻讀STEM專業學位。但這些學生有很多在畢業後回國，使美國經濟不能受益於他們獲得的技能與知識。這在很大程度上歸因於簽證數量上限以及外國畢業生獲得綠卡的難度。

Finally, US stock markets are less expansive than before. The Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index reached a peak of 7,562 publicly listed US stocks in 1998. As of the end of 2016, there were just over 3,600 left, a drop of more than 50 per cent. This sharp decline in part reflects the growth of companies being taken private and share buy backs, as corporate leadership becomes less confident about the volatility and vagaries of the stock market, and their ability to navigate the increasing myopia of investors.

最後，美國股市在廣度上也不及以往了。威爾夏5000全市場指數(Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index)納入的美國上市股票在1998年達到7562支的峯頂。截至2016年底只剩下3600支，降幅超過50%。這在某種程度上表明，隨着企業領導層對股市波動性和反覆無常、對他們應對日益短視的投資者的能力變得不那麼有信心，越來越多公司走上收歸私有和股票回購的道路。

Despite such fundamentally negative shifts, optimists might still argue that the US need not excessively worry about these three trends. After all the US remains, unlike many other countries, largely self-sufficient in terms of access to arable land, potable water, minerals and increasing levels of energy security. But it is becoming patently clear that the factors presented here, if ignored, will cause economic damage over the long term.

即便存在着如此根本性的消極變化，樂觀主義者們可能仍認爲，美國不必過分擔心這三個趨勢。畢竟，與其他許多國家不同，美國在可耕地、飲用水、礦產資源等方面基本上是自給自足的，能源安全水平也越來越高。然而，越來越明顯的是，如果忽視上述因素，將在長期造成經濟損害。