零售行業商品的定價也有心理戰

Have you ever been shopping and found a great jacket with a perfect fit? Then you look at the price tag and pause. Should you buy that perfect item now or wait to see if it’s still available during the inevitable end-of-season sale? What if the store told you that it only had a limited number left, or only had two on the rack in your size?

你是否曾在購物的時候，看到一件非常適合自己的夾克？然後看了一眼價籤，卻變得有些猶豫。你應該現在買下這件完美的衣服，還是等到必將來臨的換季促銷時，再看看能否買到這件衣服？如果店鋪告訴你，這件衣服數量有限，或者適合你的尺碼只有兩件了，你會怎麼辦？

In a recent study I conducted with Prof. Karen Zheng, we found that as consumers have become more strategic about purchases, behavioral motives like regret and availability misperception are significant factors and should play a key role in pricing strategy.

筆者近期與凱倫o張教授合作進行的一項研究發現，隨着消費者對購物的戰略性考慮越來越多，後悔和可獲得性錯覺等行爲動機成爲至關重要的因素，應該在定價策略中發揮關鍵作用。

Regret happens when consumers compare the outcome of a chosen action with that of the unchosen one and realize they would have been better off with the latter. In other words, they may regret buying the jacket now at the higher price if it turns out to be available during the sale for 30% off. Similarly, they may regret not buying it now if their size is gone by the time of the sale.

如果消費者將自己的選擇行爲結果，與未選擇行爲結果進行對比後，發現後者對他們更加有利，這時就會產生後悔情緒。換言之，如果上面提到的夾克在未來促銷時可以獲得7折的優惠，他們就會後悔現在以更高的價格買下了這件衣服。同樣，如果在未來促銷時，適合他們的尺寸已經售完，他們則會後悔現在沒有出手購買。

The availability misperception occurs due to lack of ability to process all relevant information. The consumer needs to consider how popular that jacket is now to anticipate its availability later. It also occurs simply because consumers perceive an uncertain outcome to be more likely than its actual probability. Consumers often behave as if they have mentally perceived the probabilities even when those probabilities are not explicitly known.

消費者由於缺乏處理所有相關信息的能力，進而會產生可獲得性錯覺。消費者需要考慮那件夾克現在的受歡迎程度，來預測它未來的可獲得性。如果消費者認爲出現不確定結果的概率要高於實際概率，此時也會出現可獲得性錯覺。即便實際概率並不明確，消費者也往往會表現得好像他們在內心已經感知到這種可能性。

Interestingly, retailers can prime that sense of regret by triggering the availability misperception. They can do this by emphasizing limited inventory either with signage or just putting out less of that item. If you only found two jackets in your size on the rack, you’d likely assume it’s in limited supply. Many e-commerce retailers like Amazon do this by explicitly noting how much of each item is left in stock.

有趣的是，零售商可以通過引發可獲得性錯覺，來刺激消費者的後悔情緒。他們可以通過標識牌強調庫存有限，或者發佈較少數量的商品，來達到這個目的。如果你發現在貨架上僅有兩件適合自己尺寸的衣服，你會想當然地認爲這件商品供應量有限。許多電子商務零售商，比如亞馬遜（Amazon）等，都會明確標註每件商品的剩餘庫存。

This is a smart strategy, as availability misperception has a greater impact on consumers’ purchase decisions than regret. As a result, marketing campaigns that act on this misperception are more effective than ones that only emphasize regret.

這是一種聰明的策略，因爲可獲得性錯覺對消費者購買決定的影響要大於後悔。因此，根據這種錯覺開展的營銷活動往往會比只強調後悔的營銷活動產生更好的效果。

Of course not all purchases are affected by these behavioral motives. What if, instead of a jacket, you were looking at basic undershirts? Those tend to be readily available at many retailers. You aren’t likely going to experience regret whether you buy today or later. With that type of product, an everyday-low-price strategy is optimal. In contrast, products that will induce regret are better off using a markdown strategy. Large data sets available for sales transactions and the retailer’s experience help us determine consumers’ behavioral motives in purchasing various product lines. Once they determine whether it’s a regret-inducing product or not, retailers can use our algorithm to determine what the optimal everyday-low-price or mark downs should be.

當然，並不是所有的購買行爲都會受到這些行爲動機的影響。如果你看中的是普通的貼身內衣而不是夾克，會怎麼樣？這種內衣在許多零售商店裏都能買到。不論今天買還是以後買，消費者都不太可能後悔。對於這類商品，天天低價策略纔是最佳選擇。相反，那些會引起後悔情緒的商品，則更適合降價促銷策略。憑藉龐大的銷售交易數據集，以及零售商的經驗，我們可以確定消費者在購買不同商品時的行爲動機。零售商在確定一件商品是否會導致後悔之後，就可以利用我們的算法，決定到底應該採取天天低價策略，還是降價促銷策略。

Ignoring these behavioral motives is dangerous for retailers. We found that it could lead the seller to under-stock too much and unnecessarily forgo up to 14% of potential demand. Given that retailers operate with relatively slim profit margins, 14% is very significant. It could result in 10% of profits.

忽視這些行爲動機，對於零售商來說非常危險。我們發現，零售商忽視這些行爲可能導致庫存過低，同時失去14%的潛在需求。鑑於零售商的利潤空間相對較小，14%的數字非同小可，因爲它可能意味着10%的利潤。

Companies are starting to pay a lot more attention to pricing strategy, realizing that it is one of the most important levers in the decision process. There has been a lot of attention to other aspects of the business like operations and supply chains. Pricing is the next frontier.

各公司越來越重視定價策略，因爲他們意識到這是決策過程中最重要的手段之一。商業的其他方面，如運營與供應鏈等，之前一直很受關注。而定價將是下一個重點。