拋倉啦!中國可能出售儲備致棉價大跌

Cotton prices have hit a 10-month low as expectations that China is gearing up to release a massive stockpile weigh on the market.

棉花價格跌至10個月低點，市場預計中國準備向市場投放大量棉花儲備，以平抑棉價。

Beijing is expected by the end of the year to start selling bloated cotton reserves that have kept domestic and international prices artificially high, stimulated planting of cotton internationally and starved Chinese textile mills of raw material.

中國政府預計將在年底之前開始出售膨脹的棉花儲備，正是這些儲備使國內和國際的棉價維持在不正常的高位，在國際範圍內刺激了棉花種植，並使中國的紡織企業陷入原材料短缺的困境。

China’s state reserves bureau is sitting on a stockpile estimated by the US Department of Agriculture this summer at 10m tonnes, or 60 per cent of world stocks, which it bought at relatively high prices. So far this year, it has bought 1.08m tonnes of cotton as of the end of October.

據美國農業部(Department of Agriculture)今年夏季估計，中國國家物資儲備局坐擁的棉花儲備規模多達1000萬噸，佔全球棉花庫存的60%，並且是該局以相對較高的價格收購的。今年截至10月底，中國國家物資儲備局已經收購了108萬噸棉花。

China National Cotton Reserves Corp announced last week that it would comply with policy released in early October by the National Development and Reform Commission, the country’s top economic planning agency, calling for “improving regulation of the cotton market” and “preserving supply of funds for purchasing”.

中國儲備棉管理總公司(China National Cotton Reserves Corp)上週宣佈，將執行中國最高經濟規劃部門——國家發改委(NDRC)今年10月初出臺的政策，政策呼籲“加強棉花市場管理”以及“確保收購資金供應”。

That led to speculation the bureau could start to unload inventory as early as this month, once its purchasing programme is done.

這在市場中引發了猜測，即中國國家物資儲備局最早可能在棉花收購計劃完成後，於本月開始出售棉花庫存。

ICE December cotton is trading at 75.90 cents a pound, the lowest since January. Chinese traders have been closing out cotton positions on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange on expectations a release from the reserves will send domestic futures tumbling.

倫敦洲際交易所(ICE)的12月棉花價格爲每磅75.9便士，創今年1月份以來的最低水平。中國國內的交易員們則一直忙於關閉在鄭州商品交易所(Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange)的棉花頭寸，因預計棉花儲備入市將導致國內棉花期貨價格大幅下跌。

China’s state reserves bureau has sown disarray in domestic and international cotton markets by buying at above-market prices.

中國國家物資儲備局以高於市價水平買入棉花的行爲，已經在國內和國際棉花市場上引起了混亂。

Although the bureau in theory guarantees sufficient domestic cotton supply for China’s labour-intensive textile industry, its inventory has piled up as textile mills refused to pay high prices at its auctions, while the bureau refused lower prices for fear of incurring politically damaging losses.

雖然該局理論上保證了中國勞動力密集型的紡織行業能在國內獲得充足的棉花供應，但由於紡織企業拒絕在該局的棉花拍賣會上支付高價購棉，其棉花庫存規模持續攀升，而該局因擔心發生政治上具有破壞力的虧損，所以拒絕調低價格。

Direct cotton imports by mills are limited by quotas, so many opted instead to buy imported cotton yarn.

由於紡織企業的棉花直接進口規模受到配額限制，因此很多企業轉而購買進口棉紗。

In addition, the high prices have become one more factor pushing Chinese textile bosses to set up mills in lower cost markets such as southeast Asia.

除此之外，棉價高企成爲了推動中國紡織業主們在東南亞等成本較低的市場設立工廠的又一個因素。

The Chinese finance ministry had to bail out the reserves bureau less than a decade ago when it bought international cotton at high prices and then sold at a loss, and is said to be impatient with the latest fiasco.

不到十年前，中國財政部被迫對中國國家物資儲備局施行救助，因其以較高的價格在國際市場上購入棉花，並低價出售引發虧損。據悉中國財政部對國家物資儲備局再度陷入困境感到不耐煩。