中國外匯儲備跌破3萬億美元,這意味着什麼

It’s a lot of money — but it’s shrinking.

這是相當大一筆資金——但它正在萎縮。

On Tuesday, China’s central bank said its foreign exchange reserves slipped to $2.998 trillion in January. While they dropped only a modest amount from December, the fall still put the reserves below the psychologically important $3 trillion level. Three years ago, they were at nearly $4 trillion.

中國的中央銀行週二表示，該國今年1月的外匯儲備金降至2.998萬億美元。儘管相比於去年12月降幅不大，但依然跌落了在心理上非常重要的3萬億美元水平線。三年前，這個數字是將近4萬億美元。

When they were last at $3 trillion, in early 2011, China’s economy was growing at a much faster pace — and the central bank’s foreign-exchange reserves were growing rapidly.

外匯儲備上一次達到3萬億美元時，也就是2011年初，中國經濟正以快得多的速度增長——中央銀行的外匯儲備也在迅速增長。

What are China’s foreign exchange reserves?

中國的外匯儲備是什麼？

China keeps a firm grip on the value of its currency, the renminbi. For years, that meant keeping the renminbi steady as vast amounts of the world’s money flooded into the country to buy the toys, shoes, electronics and other goods it makes.

中國對人民幣的幣值嚴加控制。這意味着數年來，在世界上的鉅額資金涌入這個國家購買它生產的玩具、鞋、電子產品和其他商品之時，也令人民幣的幣值保持了穩定。

Under the rules of global finance, that flood of money should have driven up the value of the renminbi against other currencies, like the dollar. Instead, China kept the renminbi from rising as a way to help its manufacturers compete abroad. The mechanics of how it did that are complicated, but the process resulted in China holding large sums of money denominated in other currencies.

在全球金融規則之下，那樣規模的資金流入應該推高人民幣相對於其他貨幣，比如美元的價值。但相反，中國避免讓人民幣升值，以此作爲幫助其製造商在國外競爭的方式。實現這一點的機制比較複雜，但這個過程導致中國持有大量以其他貨幣計價的資金。

At the peak, in June 2014, the reserves totaled nearly $4 trillion. Inside China, the foreign exchange reserves have been seen as a financial cushion for times of trouble. But they have generated deep frustration in places like Washington — including from President Trump during the campaign.

在2014年6月的巔峯時期，中國外匯儲備總額曾接近4萬億美元。在中國內部，外匯儲備一直被看作動盪時期的金融緩衝工具。但它們在華盛頓等地方激發深深的不滿——包括競選時期的特朗普。

Why are they now falling?

其數額爲何在減少？

China is still running huge trade surpluses with the rest of the world, with $40 billion to $60 billion a month sluicing into the country as exports exceed imports. But the country’s economic growth has slowed considerably, and that changes the dynamics.

在世界其他地方，中國依然享有鉅額貿易順差。因爲出口額超過進口額，每月有400至600億美元資金流入這個國家。但中國的經濟增長已經明顯放緩，從而改變了動態。

Worries about China’s economy are prompting companies and families to send their money out of the country for investment or safekeeping. If the Chinese central bank did nothing, the net outflow of money would cause the renminbi to weaken against the dollar.

有關中國經濟的擔憂正促使企業和家庭將資金移至海外，進行投資或保管。如果中國央行不採取任何措施，這種資金淨外流將導致人民幣相對於美元貶值。

Beijing wants to stabilize the value of the renminbi and keep money within its borders. China’s central bank has been spending billions of dollars from its reserves each month to prop up the renminbi and slow its weakening. If the renminbi were to start falling sharply, many families and companies would most likely race to move their money out of China to minimize their losses. The dwindling reserves are a sign of China’s efforts to keep money in the country by protecting the renminbi’s value.

北京想穩定人民幣的幣值，讓資金留在境內。中國的中央銀行每月用數十億美元的外匯儲備維持人民幣幣值，減慢其貶值的速度。如果人民幣開始劇烈貶值，許多家庭和企業很有可能會急着將資金挪到海外，將損失降到最小。逐漸減少的外匯儲備額是一個跡象，表明中國正在努力將資金留在國內，以維持人民幣的價值。

Isn’t $3 trillion still a lot of money?

3萬億美元不依然是一個大數目嗎？

Yes it is. Foreign reserves have not fallen to levels that should sound alarm bells in Beijing or other capitals. And China has other stores of wealth it can rely on, like a vast pool of savings.

沒錯。外匯儲備沒有降到讓北京或其他國家敲響警鐘的地步。而且中國還有其他可以依靠的財富儲備，比如大量的儲蓄。

But that does not mean China is out of danger. China still needs considerable reserves in case it runs into financial trouble. It has the world’s second-largest economy, after the United States. If many more Chinese families and companies try to swap more renminbi for dollars, that could swamp the central bank’s ability to prop up the renminbi.

但這並不意味着中國就脫離了風險。中國依然需要相當多的儲備，以防遭遇金融困境。它是世界上僅次於美國的第二大經濟體。如果有更多中國家庭和企業試圖將人民幣換成美元，可能會讓中央銀行難以維持人民幣的價值。

More broadly, the dwindling reserves say something about the direction of the Chinese economy. It shows that the era when the world rushed to invest in China to build factories or apartment buildings — generally, to get a piece of the action — is fading.

從更廣泛的層面講，逐漸減少的儲備多少說明了中國經濟的走向。它顯示出，世界涌入中國投資建廠或公寓樓——一般而言是爲從中分一杯羹——的時代正在過去。

What does this mean for the United States?

這對美國來說意味着什麼？

China’s currency is an enigma with which the Trump administration has not yet come to grips. Based purely on trade flows, the renminbi is still undervalued relative to the dollar. Each month, China exports about $4 worth of goods to the United States for each $1 of imports. China’s devaluation of the renminbi in August 2015 further upset American critics of China who contend that China is rigging its currency.

中國的貨幣問題是一個難解之謎，特朗普政府還沒能解開。基於純粹的貿易流通，人民幣的價值相對於美元依然偏低。每個月，當中國從美國進口價值1美元的東西，就會往那裏出口價值4美元的商品。中國的人民幣在2015年8月的貶值讓批評中國的美國人士更加氣惱，他們認爲中國在操縱自己的貨幣。

But by other measures, groups like the International Monetary Fund consider the renminbi fairly valued. Tensions over the renminbi also put China in an odd position, as Mr. Trump criticizes China for keeping its currency unfairly weak, even as Beijing tries to keep it from weakening further.

但從另一方面看，國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)等機構認爲人民幣價值合理。有關人民幣的緊張關係也讓中國處在尷尬的位置，儘管北京在努力避免人民幣進一步貶值，但特朗普依然指責中國讓自己的貨幣保持在不公平的弱勢水平。