計劃生育政策有望調整, 人口問題面臨新形勢
CHINA should consider adjusting its family planning policy, as structural problems have overtaken excessive growth as the most significant population-related problem, a government think tank said yesterday.
政府智囊團昨日表示，中國應考慮調整計劃生育政策，因爲結構性問題已超越過快增長成爲最重要的人口問題。Problems in population structure, quality and distribution have become increasingly visible and will have a profound impact on China's future social and Economic development, the China Development Research Foundation reported.
中國發展研究基金會報告說，人口結構、質量和分佈中存在的問題已經日益明顯，並將對中國未來的經濟和社會發展產生深遠影響。China's population has seen a declining annual growth rate, slowing to 0.57 percent in the first decade of the 21st century, down from 1.07 percent in the previous 10 years, according to the report. Its population situation is quite different from that of 30 years ago, when a family planning policy limited the majority of urban families to just one child.
根據該報告，中國人口年增長率已經出現了下降，相比前一個十年的1.07%，在二十一世紀第一個十年裏放緩至0.57％。人口形勢與30年前相比是完全不同的，那時計劃生育政策限制大多數城市家庭只生一個孩子。
The report said the population is heading for negative growth and an ultra-low fertility rate, adding that it also faces issues related to aging, gender imbalances, urbanization, an expanding shortage of migrant workers and an only-child generation.
報告說，人口問題朝着負增長和超低生育率轉移，補充說人口也將面臨老齡化、性別失衡、城市化、不斷擴大的民工荒，以及獨生子女這一代有關的問題。
The CDRF said the government should gradually loosen the one-child policy over the next three years in regions where family planning has been strictly implemented. By 2020, there will be no need to continue birth planning, as people will make more rational decisions on birth issues, the CDRF said in its report.中國發展研究基金會說政府應該在未來三年中嚴格執行計劃生育的地區逐步放寬獨生子女政策。中國發展研究基金會在報告中說到2020年將沒有必要繼續計劃生育，人們會在生育問題上做出更合理的決策。
China will also have an ultra-low fertility rate after 2026 and that the government should start encouraging families to have more children.2026年以後中國也將面臨超低生育率，政府將開始鼓勵家庭生育更多的孩子。
The family planning policy was introduced around 1980 to rein in China's surging population by encouraging late marriages and pregnancies, as well as limiting most urban couples to one child and most rural couples to two children.計劃生育政策1980年左右出臺以控制中國人口的激增，鼓勵晚婚晚育，以及限制大多數城市夫婦只生一個孩子和農村夫婦生兩個孩子。
"The family planning policy has had a profound influence on China's economic and social development," said the CDRF.“計劃生育政策對中國的經濟和社會發展產生了深遠的影響，” 中國發展研究基金會說。
The implementation of the policy has reduced the pressure created by a rapidly rising population, made contributions to economic growth and helped improve population quality.政策的實施減少了激增人口造成的壓力，對經濟增長和提高人口素質做出了貢獻。
However, China has paid a huge political and social cost for the policy, as it has resulted in social conflict, high administrative costs and led indirectly to a long-term gender imbalance at birth. Efforts should be made to support one-child and disadvantaged families in family planning, the report said.然而，中國已經爲這一政策付出了巨大的政治和社會成本，因爲它導致了社會衝突、高行政成本，間接地導致了長期的性別比例失衡。報告說應努力支持在計劃生育中一個孩子的弱勢家庭。
It also pointed out the aging population and the fact that China's "demographic dividend" has already ended and will pose a severe challenge for the country's development.它也指出了人口老齡化以及中國的“人口紅利”事實已經結束，並將爲國家的發展造成嚴峻挑戰。
"This means China cannot rely on an unlimited labor supply for its future economic development, but must instead boost its total factor productivity," said Cai Fang, director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Cai, one of the writers of the report, urged the government to increase investment in healh care and education.“這意味着中國未來的經濟發展不能依靠勞動力的無限供給，而必須提高人整體的生產率，”蔡昉說，中國社會科學研究院人口與勞動經濟研究所所長。蔡昉，該報告的筆者之一，敦促政府增加醫療保健和教育上的投資。
