中國經濟實現再平衡的三條途徑
After rising for seven years, the yuan has dropped 1% against the dollar in 2012, setting off intense speculation about Beijing's intentions. The threat of a weaker yuan and the competitive devaluations it might inspire is raising worries in a world already struggling with low demand.
在連續七年上升之後，人民幣兌美元匯率在2012年下跌了1%，這引發了市場對北京意圖的強烈猜測。人民幣走軟的威脅以及可能由此引發的競爭性貨幣貶值令一個已經在同低迷需求做鬥爭的世界倍感憂慮。These worries are justified. Beijing urgently needs to rebalance its economy away from excessive reliance on investment toward more domestic consumption. Some Chinese policy makers evidently believe that by boosting China's competitiveness abroad, a weaker yuan will provide some relief from the sharp slowdown associated with rebalancing.
這些擔憂是有道理的。北京迫切需要重新實現經濟平衡，從過度依賴投資轉向提高國內消費水平。中國的一些政策制定者顯然認爲，人民幣貶值會提高中國商品在國際市場的競爭力，從而令實現再平衡過程中出現的經濟增速大幅放緩的問題得到某種程度的緩解。There is, however, a lot more to Chinese competitiveness than the exchange rate. In fact, three mechanisms explain the relatively low price of Chinese exports, all of which transfer income from Chinese households to subsidize Chinese producers.
然而，想要提高中國商品的競爭力，除了壓低匯率水平，還有很多辦法。事實上，三大機制解釋了中國出口商品相對便宜的原因。所有這些機制將收入從中國家庭轉移至中國的生產企業，對後者進行補貼。
The currency regime is certainly one of them. An undervalued currency spurs exports by subsidizing costs for local manufacturers. These subsidies are effectively paid for by Chinese households in the form of artificially higher prices for imported goods.
匯率機制毫無疑問是其中之一。貨幣貶值以補貼國內生產企業的成本的方式刺激出口。這些補貼實際上由中國家庭支付，他們通過購買價格被人爲推高的進口商品對上述企業進行了補貼。The second mechanism does the same thing, but with a different set of winners and losers. Chinese workers' wages have grown more slowly than productivity for most of the past three decades, which means that until two years ago workers received a steadily declining share of what they produce. Manufacturers benefit because wages are effectively subsidized. The more labor-intensive production is, the greater the subsidy.
第二大機制的原理和匯率機制相同，只不過補貼和被補貼的對象有所不同。過去30年的大部分時間裏，中國工人的工資增速遠低於生產力增速，這意味着直到兩年前工人收入佔工人產出的比重還在穩步下滑。生產企業受益是因爲工人少拿的這部分工資實際上對企業形成了補貼。一家生產企業勞動密集程度越高，得到的補貼也就越多。The third mechanism, and by far the most important, is artificially low interest rates. These reduce household income by reducing the return on household savings, and increase manufacturing competitiveness by lowering the cost of capital, with more capital-intensive producers benefitting the most.
第三大機制，也是迄今爲止最重要的一個機制就是人爲壓低的利率。這一做法通過降低居民儲蓄的回報降低了家庭收入，並通過降低資本的成本增加了製造業的競爭力，越是資本密集型的生產企業受益越大。All these subsidies goose economic growth, but they distribute the benefits in different ways-to local producers, employers, or borrowers. They also distribute the costs in different ways-to households as importers, as workers or as savers.
所有這些補貼機制都能促進經濟增長，但不同機制分配利益、攤銷成本的方式不同。上述三大機制的受益人包括國內生產企業、僱主和借款人，而對這些受益人進行補貼的一方則包括購買進口商品的家庭、工人以及儲蓄者。These three mechanisms cause the economy to grow faster at the expense of households. That's the root of China's unbalanced economy: household income has grown so much more slowly than the economy that household consumption over the past three decades has collapsed as a share of GDP.
這三種機制使中國經濟在讓中國家庭做出犧牲的情況下以更快的速度增長。這正是中國經濟失衡的根源：與中國經濟的增速相比，中國家庭收入的增速要慢得多，這導致過去30年裏家庭消費佔GDP的比重大幅下降。Rebalancing in China means by definition that the household consumption share of GDP must rise, and the only effective way to do this is by raising the household income share of GDP. But for all the noises Washington and others make about revaluing the currency, this isn't the only way. There are two other mechanisms at Beijing's disposal.
顧名思義，中國經濟要實現再平衡就要讓家庭消費佔GDP的比重上升，而做到這一點的唯一有效方式就是提高家庭收入佔GDP的比重。儘管美國政府以及其他人都在要求中國重估人民幣幣值，但升值並非唯一的途徑。還有兩套機制可資北京利用。Consider who exactly wins and loses with each mechanism. Yuan appreciation will disproportionately help urban households-for whom import costs tend to be important. And it will disproportionately hurt manufacturers to the extent that their production inputs─mainly labor, land, logistics and raw materials-are priced domestically.
讓我們來看看每種機制下各自的贏家和輸家分別是誰。人民幣升值會給中國城市家庭帶來較大的好處，因爲對這部分家庭來說購買進口商品的支出變動對其影響很大。但人民幣升值對生產企業的傷害很大，這是因爲他們爲生產而投入的要素（主要是勞動力、土地、物流和原材料）是按人民幣定價的。Raising Chinese wages will help household income too. It will disproportionately help low-paid workers, while disproportionately hurting labor-intensive manufacturers who tend to be small and medium enterprises.
提高中國工人工資也有助於提高家庭收入。此舉受益最大的當屬低收入工人，但勞動密集型生產企業會因此受到嚴重影響，這些企業多半是中小型企業。But the best way to rebalance is raising interest rates. Of all the three mechanisms, this is the most important one, since it strikes at the heart of the imbalances generated by China's investment-led growth model.
加息是實現中國經濟再平衡的最佳路徑。在上述三種機制當中，加息是最爲重要的一個，因爲對於中國投資拉動型增長模式所造成的經濟失衡來說，這一手段能夠正中要害。By skewing the financial system, Beijing has managed to distort the whole economy which is built on that system. If the government hikes the cost of capital, the winners will be every saver, whose higher income will then allow him to consume more. The losers are the large capital-intensive companies, usually state-owned enterprises, who for too long have treated the banks as ATMs.
通過扭曲金融體系，中國政府也扭曲了構築於這一體系之上的整個經濟。如果政府提高資本的成本，受益的將是每一個儲蓄者。收入增加之後，儲蓄者也就能夠擴大消費支出。受損的則是資本密集型的大企業（通常是國有企業）。這些企業長年將銀行當作自己的提款機。This mechanism can change incentives for everyone. For the sake of more sustainable and equitable long-term growth, it is almost certainly better if Beijing raises interest rates. Higher interest rates will reduce the incentive to invest in economically dubious projects that benefit local elites, and will force a more efficient allocation of Chinese savings.
加息將改變每個人所面臨的激勵機制。爲了實現更可持續且公平的長期增長，如果中國政府能夠加息，情況幾乎肯定可以變得更好。加息會降低有關方面投資那些經濟效益存疑項目的動力（國內的精英階層是這些項目的受益方），並迫使銀行更有效率地利用儲蓄款。Which path of rebalancing China chooses in practice will reflect domestic priorities and political maneuvering, though the good news is they'll all broadly have the same impact. Each path is painful, and they all ensure that China's export costs will rise and its foreign competitiveness will go down. In return, its domestic market will become a bigger source of demand. The world should not, in other words, be overly concerned with what happens just to the exchange rate.
中國最終選擇哪條路徑以實現經濟再平衡實際上反映的是政府優先考慮的國內問題以及這背後的政治角力。但好消息是不管選擇哪條路徑，最後的效果大體一致。每一條道路都佈滿了荊棘，且無一例外的是，出口成本將上升，中國商品的國際競爭力將下降。但好處是中國國內市場將成爲需求的一個更大來源。換句話說，世界不該只是過分關心人民幣匯率將如何變動。
