世界看不懂 中國經濟的反平衡之舉
As the globe frets over Brexit, China worries have been superseded — for now, at least. On Friday, the National Bureau of Statistics released a slew of second-quarter economic data. Headlining the figures, the country’s gross domestic product grew 10 basis points faster than forecast, up 6.7 per cent. The quality (not to mention reliability) of that growth is questionable.
在全球爲英國退歐而煩惱之際，中國引發的擔憂已“退居二線”——至少目前是這樣。上週五，中國國家統計局公佈了一系列今年第二季度的經濟數據。在這些數據中，最爲重要的是中國國內生產總值(GDP)。今年第二季度，中國的GDP同比增長了6.7%，增幅比預期高了10個基點。這一增長的品質是值得懷疑的——更不用提其可靠性了。
China is quieter these days regarding its desire to address economic imbalances. And Friday’s data show more clearly that the government has rowed back from reform in favour of stimulus measures, pumping money into the system to stabilise growth. Figures from the People’s Bank of China the same day showed that money supply growth was faster than expected, reaching levels last seen post 2008. New loans also rose by over $200bn, more than $50bn higher than economists’ estimates.
近來，中國已不再像之前那樣頻繁地提及渴望解決經濟失衡問題了。上週五的數據更爲清晰地表明，中國政府已從改革的道路上回撤，轉而力挺刺激性措施，將資金注入經濟體系以穩定增長。同一天來自中國央行的數據顯示，貨幣供應增速高於預期，達到了2008年後那段時期纔有的水平。新增貸款也增長逾2000億美元，比經濟學家的估計高了逾500億美元。
Still, the data also show that China’s economic focus continues to shift. Retail sales grew faster than expected, with year on year growth accelerating from the first quarter. Consumption accounted for nearly three quarters of the first half’s GDP growth, according to the NBS. Meanwhile, fixed asset investment growth slowed. Yet the investment that did occur was largely state sponsored; private enterprises barely increased their spending.
不過，數據也表明中國的經濟重心在繼續轉移。社會消費品零售總額增長速度超過預期，同比增速高於今年一季度。中國國家統計局數據顯示，上半年GDP增長近四分之三由消費貢獻。與此同時，固定資產投資增長則已放緩。不過，真正發生的投資，資金大多來自國家；民營企業的開支幾乎沒有增長。
The reversion to state-led growth is unsustainable. Should China continue to shun reforms in favour of a quick fix, the short-term benefits of stabilised growth will be outweighed by the cost of persistent imbalances.
這種向國家主導型增長的迴歸是不可持續的。如果中國迴避改革而偏好快速解決方案，持續性失衡造成的損失將超過企穩的增長帶來的短期好處。
