美國失業率下降或對奧巴馬競選有利
Friday’s announcement of a drop in the U.S. unemployment rate from nine percent to 8.6 percent is seen by experts as a boost to President Barack Obama’s re-election prospects next year, especially if it becomes a trend.
根據12月2日(星期五)的一項宣佈，美國的失業率從9%下降到8.6%。專家認爲，這一消息會改善奧巴馬總統明年競選連任的前景，特別是如果失業率下降成爲一種趨勢的話。
The drop in the jobless rate is the best economic and political news for the White House in months, and President Obama was quick to note the progress during a speech in Washington.
失業率下降是白宮數月來聽到的最好的經濟和政治消息。在華盛頓發表講話的奧巴馬總統很快就談到這一進展。
“As president, my most pressing challenge is doing everything I can every single day to get this economy growing faster and create more jobs,” he said.
奧巴馬說：“作爲總統，我最緊迫的任務就是每天都要竭盡全力使我們的經濟增長的更快，創造更多的就業機會。”
Economists say the new figures are a good sign but they also note that the jobless rate is down in part because a lot of Americans have stopped looking for work.
經濟學家說，雖然新的數據是好的跡象，但是他們也指出，失業率下降的部分原因是因爲許多美國人停止找工作了。
Republicans, including House Speaker John Boehner, were cautious.
包括衆議院議長貝納在內的共和黨人對此持謹慎的態度。
“Any job creation is welcome news," Boehner said. "But the jobless rate in our country is still unacceptably high.”
貝納說：“任何創造就業的事情都是值得歡迎的消息，但是我國這麼高的失業率仍然是不可接受的。”
Political experts say the economy and jobless rate will be key issues in next year’s presidential election. Voters will hold President Obama accountable if the economy remains weak, said analyst Stuart Rothenberg.
政治專家說，在明年的總統選舉中，經濟和失業率將是關鍵的問題。分析人士羅森博格說，如果經濟仍然疲軟的話，選民將認爲奧巴馬總統應該對此負責。
“He either needs to change the economy and the jobs situation and the overall mood of the country, which is very difficult to do, or he is going to need to change the election so that it is not about jobs but is about 'Do you trust the Republicans? Are the Republicans too scary?' Then he has a chance for re-election,” Rothenberg said.
他說：“奧巴馬要麼需要改變經濟和就業局勢以及全國的總體情緒，這是很難做到的，要麼他就需要改變選舉的觀念，以便讓選民認爲，這次選舉不是針對就業問題的，而是關於‘你是否信任共和黨人？共和黨人是否讓你感到太擔心？’這樣他就有重新當選的機會。”
The Republicans hoping to win their party’s nomination and run against Mr. Obama next year have largely focused their campaigns on the president’s economic record, including former U.S. House speaker Newt Gingrich.
希望贏得黨內提名進而在明年與奧巴馬爭奪總統職位的共和黨人在他們的競選活動中把注意力集中在奧巴馬總統的經濟記錄方面，這些共和黨人中也包括前衆議院議長金裏奇。“If Obama is re-elected and he comes to believe that his radicalism was vindicated despite the economy, despite the deficit, despite everything, I can’t imagine what his second term would be like."
金裏奇說：“要是奧巴馬重新當選的話，他就會認爲他的激進主義被證明是正確的，不管經濟多糟，不管赤字多高，不管一切如何。我無法想像他的第二個任期將會是個什麼樣子。”
At the moment, Gingrich and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney are at the top of public opinion polls measuring support for the eight Republican presidential contenders. Romney continues to emphasize his experience in the private sector.
目前，金裏奇和前麻薩諸塞州州長羅姆尼在有關8名共和黨參選人的支持率進行的民調當中排在最前面。
“I want to go to work to help American businesses again succeed, thrive, add employees," Romney has said during his campaign. "I don’t hate business. I like business!”
A steady trend of improvement in the jobless figures would greatly help the president’s chances of re-election, according to Democratic political strategist Steve McMahon.
民主黨的政治戰略人士麥克馬洪說，失業數字如果能穩步改進的話，將會大大增進奧巴馬重新當選的機會。
“What matters most in a presidential campaign at the end when it comes to the economy is 'do people feel like things are getting better and on a path to getting better, or do they think things are the same or getting worse?'”
麥克馬洪說：“在總統競選活動中，最終涉及到經濟的關鍵問題就是，‘人們感覺形勢好轉，正在朝好轉的道路上發展，還是他們認爲經濟還是老樣子或是更糟了？’”
McMahon and other Democrats hope Mr. Obama can follow the example of former president Ronald Reagan.
麥克馬洪和其他民主黨人希望，奧巴馬能夠效仿前總統里根的榜樣。
Mr. Reagan won a sweeping re-election victory in 1984 even with the unemployment rate at 7.2 percent, largely because voters believed the country was headed in the right direction.
1984年，里根就是在失業率爲7.4%的形勢下以壓倒性的優勢贏得了競選連任的勝利。這主要是因爲當時美國選民認爲國家是朝正確的方向邁進。
