奧巴馬訪問古巴有助於提升美國地位
For once, the word “historic” is not hyperbole. Barack Obama’s visit to Havana, which began on Sunday, is the first trip by a sitting US president to Cuba in more than 88 years. More significantly, it aims to cement his 15-month-old policy of rapprochement and engagement with the island. By reversing more than half a century of bullyboy tactics, this also buttresses US standing in the region.
這一次，“歷史性”這個詞絕不誇張。巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)週日開始的哈瓦那之行，是在任美國總統逾88年來首次訪問古巴。更具重大意義的是，此行將力求夯實奧巴馬推行已15個月的與島國古巴和解與接觸的政策。通過逆轉持續半個多世紀的“以大欺小”戰術，此舉還有助於提升美國在地區的地位。
Through executive order, Mr Obama has punched several holes in the embargo, although it can only be fully lifted by Congress. The US has removed Cuba from its list of state sponsors of terror. Commercial flights have been agreed; up to 110 a day are allowed. Travel restrictions on US visitors have been lifted.
藉助行政命令，奧巴馬在禁運之牆上打穿了幾個洞，儘管只有美國國會才能完全解除禁運。美國已經把古巴從支持恐怖主義國家的名單上移除。有關商業航班的協議已經達成；每天允許執行多達110個航班。針對美國人訪問古巴的限制已被取消。
This week, among other measures, the use of the dollar was decriminalised, obviating Cuba’s need for complex third-currency operations and so facilitating business. To the extent this also helps ordinary Cubans make their livelihood in ways that do not depend on the state, it is to be welcomed.
本週，除其他措施外，使用美元被合法化，使古巴不再需要複雜的第三種貨幣操作，給商業活動帶來便利。此舉也有助於古巴普通人以不依賴於國家的方式謀生，就此而言，這是值得歡迎的。
Most dramatically, “regime change” is no longer an objective. The island’s future, as Mr Obama has stated, is up to Cubans to decide. This also offers the only plausible parallel between Mr Obama’s trip and Calvin Coolidge’s in 1928. Back then, Coolidge sought to withdraw the US from intimate management of island affairs on the basis that if Cubans want to make difficulties for themselves, was it not fairer to let them?
最具戲劇性的是，“政權更迭”已不再是一個目標。正如奧巴馬宣示的，這個島國的未來要由古巴人來決定。這一點也提供了奧巴馬此行與1928年時任美國總統卡爾文•柯立芝(Calvin Coolidge)訪問古巴之行唯一可信的共同點。當年柯立芝試圖撤回美國對古巴事務的密切管理，他的理由是，如果古巴人要折騰自己，讓他們如願以償難道不是更加公平嗎？
Mr Obama’s visit, though, is more than about mending ties and regaining leverage in an old cold war foe with which the US has few ties and less leverage. It is a keystone in the US’s broader approach to the region. While the Middle East and the Mediterranean rim may be a mess, US foreign policy in its own hemisphere and the Caribbean is almost blooming. The broad lesson here is the importance of the long view.
不過，奧巴馬的古巴之行意義不僅在於修復關係，重新獲得對一個冷戰老對手的影響力；目前美國與古巴聯繫很少，影響力就更少了。此行是美國對該地區整體戰略的一個關鍵。儘管中東和地中海沿岸可能一團糟，但美國在自己所在的半球以及加勒比地區的外交關係近乎碩果累累。這其中的主要收穫在於長遠眼光的重要性。
Thirty or so years ago, much of Latin America — from civil strife in Central America to drug wars in Colombia — seemed to be a series of intractable situations. No more.
差不多30年前，拉美大部分地區——從中美洲的內亂到哥倫比亞的毒品戰爭——貌似一個又一個棘手的爛攤子。局面已不再如此。
Colombia’s Marxist guerrillas, tacitly encouraged by Havana, are poised to put down their weapons. Rapprochement with Cuba also pulls out the rhetorical rug from under the feet of Venezuela’s mad-dog government, which can no longer rail convincingly about imperialism.
在哈瓦那方面心照不宣地鼓勵下，哥倫比亞的馬克思主義游擊隊正準備放下武器。美國與古巴修好，還使委內瑞拉的瘋狗政府不再有理論自信，再也無法振振有詞地譴責帝國主義。
Meanwhile, the forces of economic gravity are doing for other mismanaged countries in the region. Brazil’s corruption-riven government is on the point of collapse. Argentina’s recently elected president, Mauricio Macri, a pro-business centrist, has said that he wants to re-engage with the US. Mr Obama will travel there on Tuesday. Another historic trip, it will be the first bilateral US-Argentine visit in nearly 20 years.
同時，經濟引力的力量正在該地區其它管理失當的國家發揮作用。在巴西，腐敗纏身的政府即將崩潰。阿根廷最近當選的總統毛裏西奧•馬克裏(Mauricio Macri)是一個親商的中間派人士，他已表示希望與美國重新接觸。奧巴馬將在週二對阿根廷展開訪問。那將是又一次歷史性的訪問，是美國與阿根廷近20年來首次雙邊訪問。
So much for advancing US interests. What of Cuba’s? Critics complain Mr Obama has given up more to Havana than Havana has given back. Perhaps so. But tit-for-tat negotiations with Cuba’s Communist leaders would have gone nowhere, as they always have. Anyway, acting unilaterally turns the spotlight on Cuba and removes its traditional excuses for intransigence and human rights abuses. Mr Obama must press those concerns, as should others.
這些都是增進美國利益的事情。那麼古巴的利益呢？批評人士抱怨，奧巴馬對哈瓦那方面作出的讓步，比哈瓦那方面的回饋更多。也許是這樣。但是，同古巴共產黨領導人進行鍼鋒相對的談判將會一無所成，那樣的談判歷來如此。無論如何，單方面採取行動使古巴置身於聚光燈下，消除了古巴對於頑固立場和侵犯人權行爲的傳統藉口。奧巴馬必須交涉那些問題，其他人也應該這麼做。
Change is coming to Cuba. The passing of its original revolutionary leaders makes it inevitable — at some point. When Air Force One leaves Havana, 11m people will still return to the dull if slowly changing routines of centralised planning and a police state.
古巴正在迎來變化。其原有的革命領袖的過世在某個時間點將使變化不可避免。當“空軍一號”離開哈瓦那之後，1100萬古巴人仍將回到中央計劃和警察國家體制下沉悶（如果說在慢慢變化的話）的日常生活。
But even if it takes the patience of Job, their lives now have a better chance of improving too.
但即使這需要約伯(Job)的耐心，至少他們的生活現在有了改善的更好機會。
