中國外匯儲備重回3萬億美元

China’s foreign exchange reserves rose in February, surprising analysts by breaking an eight-month string of declines and offering the latest evidence that a stable renminbi and tighter capital controls are succeeding in staunching capital outflows.

中國外匯儲備2月出現上升，打破了持續八個月的跌勢，出乎分析師們意料，並提供最新證據表明，人民幣匯率穩定和更嚴格的資本管制正在成功地遏止資本外流。

China’s currency weakened by a record 6.5 per cent against the dollar in 2016 amid unprecedented capital outflows. In response, the central bank sold dollars from its reserves to relieve pressure on the currency. Foreign exchange reserves fell below $3tn for the first time in five years in January.

2016年期間，人民幣相對於美元創紀錄地走低6.5%，與此同時中國出現前所未有的資本外流。作爲迴應，中國央行從其儲備中賣出美元，以減輕人民幣匯率下行壓力。1月中國外匯儲備5年來首次下降至3萬億美元以下。

But they rose by $6.9bn to reach $3.01tn at the end of February, the central bank said yesterday. Analysts had expected a decline of $25bn, according to a Reuters poll.

但中國央行昨日表示，2月外匯儲備上升69億美元，月底增至3.01萬億美元。根據路透社(Reuters)的一項調查，分析師們此前預計中國外匯儲備會進一步下降250億美元。

Adjusting for valuation effects from exchange-rate fluctuations, reserve inflows were probably even higher at about $25bn, according to an FT estimate. The dollar strengthened against a range of global currencies in February, reducing the dollar-denominated value of Chinese reserves held in euro, yen and other non-dollar currencies.

根據英國《金融時報》的一項估算，計入匯率波動所產生的估值效應後，中國外匯儲備的流入可能更高，約爲250億美元。2月份美元兌一系列全球貨幣走強，降低了中國所持的歐元、日元和其他非美元貨幣儲備資產的美元價值。

After last year’s weakening the renminbi has held firm in 2017, rising 0.7 per cent so far. That has reduced investor appetite to move money offshore. Strong growth figures have bolstered confidence, while higher money market interest rates since late 2016 have discouraged outflows by increasing the yields available on renminbi assets.

在去年走弱之後，人民幣在2017年保持堅挺，迄今上漲0.7%。這已經降低了投資者把資金轉往境外的胃口。強勁的經濟增長數字增強了信心，同時自2016年末貨幣市場利率上升也通過提高人民幣資產的收益率，抑制了資本外流。

But analysts warn that signals from the Federal Reserve that another US rate rise is coming this month will increase the lure of US dollar assets relative to China. “I don’t think this is necessarily a turning point. You can’t say that because February data looks good, it’s going to stay good,” said Zhang Yu, head of international research at Minsheng Securities in Beijing. “This data mainly reflects that the renminbi has performed well at the start of the year. But looking ahead, outflow pressure will still be significant.”

但分析師們警告，美聯儲(Federal Reserve)發出的有關美國將在本月再度加息的信號，將提升美元資產相對於中國的誘惑力。“我不認爲這必然是一個轉折點。你不能說，因爲2月的數據看起來不錯，形勢就會保持良好，”北京民生證券研究院海外研究主管張瑜表示。“這一數據主要反映了人民幣在年初表現良好。但展望未來，外流壓力仍會很大。”

Beyond currency and interest-rate factors, regulators have imposed measures to limit outflows. The limits include tighter approvals for foreign acquisitions by Chinese companies, increased disclosure requirements on forex purchases by individuals and limits on banks’ cross-border renminbi remittances. Chinese football clubs also face new limits on signing expensive foreign stars.

除了匯率和利率因素外，監管機構也已採取措施限制資金外流，包括收緊對中國企業境外收購的審批，增加對個人購匯的披露要求，以及對銀行跨境人民幣匯款的限制。計劃聘請天價外籍球星的中國足球俱樂部也面臨新的限制。

Illustrating the effect of new capital controls, outbound foreign direct investment from China tumbled by 36 per cent in January, including an 84 per cent decline in outbound real estate acquisition, according to the commerce ministry. Outbound acquisitions surged to a record $144bn in 2016, with real estate among the most popular targets.

根據中國商務部的統計，1月中國對外直接投資(FDI)下滑36%，其中境外房地產收購暴跌84%，顯示出新資本管制措施的影響。境外收購在2016年飆升至創紀錄的1440億美元，房地產躋身於最受歡迎的目標之列。

But regulators have sought to reassure investors the clampdown is primarily aimed at rooting out fraud and discouraging “irrational” foreign investments such as those outside an acquirer’s core business. They have said legitimate investments will not be blocked.

但監管機構已尋求讓投資者放心，限制措施的主要目的是剷除欺詐，阻止“非理性”境外投資，例如在收購方核心業務以外的那些投資。他們表示，正當的投資不會被阻止。

“The regulator’s focus on accurate and complete disclosures is having an impact. Outbound investment has fallen back to a reasonable range,” said Yan Ling, economist at China Merchants Securities in Beijing.

“監管機構對準確、全面披露的注重正在產生影響。境外投資已回落到合理範圍，”北京招商證券經濟學家閆玲表示。

“Going forward, the key factor is the external environment. 2017 will be better than 2016, but it’s not clear if things can continue like this.”

“展望未來，關鍵因素是外部環境。2017年會比2016年好，但不清楚目前形勢能不能保持下去。”