負利率時代銀行各出囤錢奇招
The idea of keeping piles of cash in high security vaults may sound like something from an old movie plot, but some banks and insurers have recently started considering the idea as interest rates sink below zero across much of Europe.
把一堆堆現金放在防範嚴密的金庫裏，這聽起來像老電影裏纔有的情節，但隨着歐洲大部分國家利率降爲負值，一些銀行和保險公司最近已開始考慮起這個主意。
Europe’s highways are not yet jammed with heavily guarded trucks transporting money to top-secret locations, but if it becomes financially sensible for banks to hoard cash as rates are cut even further, the practice could undermine central banks’ ability to use negative rates to boost growth.
歐洲的高速路上還沒擠滿戒備森嚴、把錢運往絕密地點的運鈔車，但隨着利率進一步削減，如果囤積現金變成對銀行來說在財務上明智的選擇，這種做法可能會削弱央行利用負利率促進增長的能力。
After the European Central Bank’s most recent rate cut in March, private-sector banks are paying what amounts to an annual levy of 0.4 per cent on most of the funds they keep at the eurozone’s 19 national central banks. This policy, which has cost banks around Euro2.64bn since ECB rates became negative in 2014, is intended to spark economic growth by giving banks the incentive to lend money out to businesses instead of holding on to it.
歐元區的私營銀行絕大部分資金存放在19家國家央行，在歐洲央行(ECB) 3月份最近一次降息後，私營銀行正爲這些資金繳付相當於每年徵稅0.4%的費用。負利率政策旨在鼓勵銀行把錢貸給企業，而不是抓住錢不放，從而刺激經濟增長。自2014年歐洲央行進入負利率時代，各家銀行已支付了約26.4億歐元。
European central bankers say they could cut rates again should economic conditions worsen, but private bankers and insurers are already thinking of creative ways to avoid those charges altogether.
歐洲央行官員表示，如果經濟狀況繼續惡化，他們可能會再次降息，但私營銀行和保險商已經想出了各種富於創造力的方法來從根本上規避這些費用。
One way is by turning the electronic money they keep at central banks into cold, hard cash. Munich Re has experimented successfully with storing a double-digit million sum of euros in cash at what the insurer describes as a manageable cost. A few other German banks, including Commerzbank, the country’s second-biggest lender, have also considered taking the step. But when a Swiss pension fund attempted to withdraw a large sum of money from its bank in order to store it in a vault, the bank refused to provide the cash, according to local media reports.
方法之一就是將它們存放在央行裏的電子貨幣轉換成看得見摸得着的現金。慕尼黑再保險(Munich Re)已成功儲存幾千萬歐元現金，該保險公司稱成本可控。還有幾家德國銀行——包括德國第二大銀行德國商業銀行(Commerzbank)——也考慮採取此步驟。但據當地媒體報道，當一支瑞士養老基金試圖從銀行提取一大筆錢以存入金庫時，銀行拒絕提供現金。
If this practice becomes widespread, it would have big economic implications. If banks are not paying central bank interest charges, then they will not be as affected by further official interest rate cuts. They therefore would not be spurred to lend out more money.
如果這種做法流行開來，將對經濟造成很大影響。如果各銀行不向央行繳付負利率費用，它們就不會受到官方利率進一步削減的嚴重影響。它們也就不會有加大放貸力度的動力。
Fortunately for central banks, the hoarding of cash creates a host of other costs.
對於央行來說幸運的是，囤積現金會造成一大堆其他成本。
Part of it is storage and transport, though they are not the biggest problems. A withdrawal of a large amount of cash in one swoop would keep transport costs low, while the high value of the largest denominations of euro and Swiss franc notes mean that large amounts can be stored in small volumes.
一部分是儲存和運輸成本，儘管這不是最大的問題。一次性提取大量現金可以降低運輸成本，而歐元和瑞士法郎最大面額紙幣的高價值意味着，較小的空間就能存儲大筆現金。
Even when the ECB stops issuing the Euro500 note in 2018 and banks will have to use the smaller denomination Euro200 notes, there is enough space in vaults, according to private bankers.
據私營銀行業人士表示，即使2018年歐洲央行停止發行500歐元面額紙幣，各銀行必須使用較小面額的200歐元紙幣，金庫還是會有足夠的空間。
Bank robbers, earthquakes and other unforeseen disasters, on the other hand, are a problem. Or rather, the delicate issue of finding an insurer willing to take on those risks while charging a reasonable fee.
另一方面，像銀行劫匪、地震這類不可預見的災害是一個真正的問題。或者說這引出了一個微妙的問題，如何找到一家願意以合理收費承擔這些風險的保險公司？
“No one stores cash for large amounts of time. At the moment, cash comes in and then goes out quickly to ATMs,” said a German banker, who has looked into the costs of switching to bank notes. The banker estimated that the insurance cost would probably be between 0.5 per cent to 1 per cent of the value of the banknotes being stored. That would be higher than the ECB’s negative rate, but in line with Switzerland’s minus 0.75 per cent, which is one of the lowest in the world.
一位德國銀行家在研究了轉存現鈔的成本後表示：“沒人會儲存現金很久。眼下，提出來的現金很快就被分配到各網點的自動取款機。”據這位銀行家估計，保險費很可能達到所存紙幣價值的0.5%到1%，這比歐洲央行的負利率還貴，但與瑞士央行(Swiss National Bank)的-0.75%——全球最低利率之一——相仿。
There is also the issue of whether private-sector banks would be able to hoard cash on a large scale without the tacit approval of their national central banks. If a bank in the eurozone wanted to switch its reserves into banknotes, the first step would be to contact the national central bank at which its account is held.
還有一個問題是，私營銀行能否在未經國家央行默許的情況下大規模囤積現金。如果歐元區的一家銀行想把自己的儲備金轉換成紙幣，第一步就是聯繫其開戶的國家央行。
Each of the national central banks must agree to swap the electronic money for banknotes in the denominations chosen by the bank. If several banks decided to hoard cash, the amount of banknotes in circulation would jump. At the moment, there are euro notes worth Euro1.087tn in circulation. Banks have almost the same amount (Euro988.1bn) that they could demand from the central bank.
每家央行都必須同意將電子貨幣換成私營銀行所選面額的紙幣。如果有好幾家銀行決定囤積現金，紙幣流通量就會猛增。目前有價值1.087萬億歐元的紙幣在流通中，而私營銀行可以要求從央行提取的金額（9881億歐元）與此幾乎相當。
The national central banks stockpile banknotes, and the ECB has measures in place to supply them on short notice if demand soars. A spokesperson for the ECB said: “Rest assured that the ECB and the eurosystem will continue to make all necessary arrangements to ensure a smooth functioning of cash as a means of payment and a store of value.”
各國央行都有紙幣庫存，歐洲央行也安排好措施，如果需求大增可以在短時間內提供紙幣。歐洲央行一位發言人表示：“請放心，歐洲央行和歐元體系將繼續做出一切必要安排，保證現金作爲支付工具和保值手段的正常運轉。”
The German banker said it is unlikely that cash hoarding would become a widespread practice. Rather, it is a good way of registering banks’ protest over the impact of negative rates. “It would be sensible for two or three banks . . . to make clear that there is a lower bound for interest rates,” he said. “I don’t think the Swiss National Bank will be able to cut rates again without insurers and banks trying to hoard cash.
上述德國銀行家表示，囤積現金不太可能成爲普遍做法，而是表明銀行抗議負利率衝擊的好辦法。他說：“兩三家銀行這麼做是合理的……以明確指出利率應有下限。我認爲瑞士央行如果再次降息，保險商和銀行將試圖囤積現金。”
