中國該不該一步到位調整匯率
Death by a thousand cuts originated in China. For investors in renminbi assets, it is staging something of a comeback. Since mid-August last year, when China allowed its currency to weaken by 2 per cent in one day, the renminbi has slipped 6 per cent. On Monday, China’s finance ministry confirmed that it would sell Rmb3tn ($458m) of renminbi bonds in London in the largest offshore listing since 2011. The outlook for the currency will be a significant factor for potential buyers.
“凌遲處死”起源於中國。人民幣資產的投資者似乎嚐到了這種極刑的滋味。自去年8月中旬中國讓人民幣在一天內貶值2%以來，人民幣匯率累計已經下跌6%。週一，中國財政部證實將在倫敦發行30億元人民幣（合4.58億美元）債券，這將是自2011年以來最大的離岸債券發行。對潛在買家來說，人民幣前景將是一大考慮因素。
The good news for bond buyers is that an outright devaluation of the renminbi is unlikely. The past few years of currency strength have helped China rebalance towards consumer spending. Deliberate devaluation would undermine this and damage the government’s credibility. As global demand stagnates, any boost to exports would probably prove insufficient to offset these detrimental impacts.
債券買家的好消息是，人民幣徹底貶值的可能性不大。過去幾年人民幣走強，已幫助中國經濟再平衡，轉向在更大程度上依賴消費支出。故意貶值會破壞這一點，並損害政府的公信力。隨着全球需求停滯，任何對出口的提振很可能被證明不足以抵消這些不利影響。
Involuntary devaluation may seem more likely. Yet China has fought hard to protect its currency from those trying to force it down. And, despite capital flight diminishing its firepower, Fitch Ratings notes that China’s current account surplus still goes a long way to help plug the leaks and shore up foreign exchange reserves.
非自願貶值似乎更有可能。然而，中國一直在努力捍衛人民幣，挫敗那些試圖迫使其貶值的投機者。而且，儘管資本外流減少了中國官方的火力，但惠譽評級(Fitch Ratings)指出，中國的經常賬戶盈餘依然有助於堵塞泄漏，支撐外匯儲備。
Still, China’s redback is bound to depreciate. It is expensive against other currencies — as the shopping exodus from China partly attests. HSBC reckons that against an inflation-adjusted average since 2006, the renminbi could be as much as 15 per cent overvalued. This has to change, the more so now that the US rate cycle is on a tightening bias while China’s slowing economy argues for a looser monetary policy.
話說回來，人民幣必然會貶值。目前它的匯率相對於其他貨幣偏高——中國人熱衷於在境外購物就是部分證明。匯豐(HSBC)估計，相對於自2006年以來經通脹因素調整的平均水平，人民幣幣值可能高估了高達15%。這種局面必然會改變，更何況現在美國利率週期進入收緊階段，而中國經濟放緩呼喚着更加寬鬆的貨幣政策。
While China is fearful of encouraging a run on the renminbi, the merciful approach might in fact be a swift exchange rate adjustment large enough to be convincingly one-off. Skittish Chinese savers, with few investment choices at home and facing the prospect of a weaker currency, crowd the exits each time the renminbi ticks down. An overnight markdown might not prevent all flight, but it would remove a major incentive for assets trickling offshore. Meanwhile, low levels of foreign denominated debt are manageable. If the bond issue gets away, then China’s ability to borrow offshore in renminbi will strengthen this position still further. A more merciful end to the renminbi’s drawn-out decline is worth considering.
雖然中國擔心會鼓勵資本外流，但仁慈的做法實際上可能是進行迅速的匯率調整，並且幅度大到足以令人相信它是一次性的。目前，緊張的中國儲戶面對國內極少的投資選擇和人民幣貶值的前景，每次人民幣小幅走低都會推動他們競相把資金轉移到海外。在一夜之間下調匯率也許不能完全阻止資本外流，但它將消除把人民幣資產源源不斷轉移到海外的一大誘因。與此同時，外幣債務水平較低，處於可控範圍。如果上述債券發行順利完成，中國在境外借入人民幣債務的能力將進一步加強這一狀態。以更爲仁慈的方式終結人民幣沒完沒了的走低是值得考慮的。
