新興市場千禧一代收入更高
If the media coverage is to be believed, the so-called millennials are the most victimised generation in living memory.
如果媒體的報道是可信的，所謂的千禧一代是當前人們記憶中最慘的一代。
This cohort, roughly defined as those born between 1985 and 2000, are perceived (by millennials themselves, at least) as facing a uniquely bleak financial future, blighted by high property prices and student debt, low wages and an ultra-competitive labour market.
千禧一代可粗略定義爲出生於1985年到2000年的一代人。在一些人（至少包括千禧一代自己）看來，這個羣體面臨格外黯淡的財務前景，高房價、學生債務、低工資和競爭極度激烈的勞動力市場都爲他們的前途蒙上陰影。
But if there is any truth in this at all, it would appear to be a first-world problem. In the emerging world, it seems, millennials are doing so well it is their parents’ generation that is being eclipsed.
但如果這個論斷中有任何真實成分的話，這似乎也是一個第一世界的問題。在新興世界，千禧一代過得很不錯，處於陰影之中的看上去反倒是他們父母那一代人。
In a swath of major emerging markets, the gross income of 25 to 29 year-olds is now markedly higher than the national average.
在一批主要的新興市場經濟體，現在25-29歲人羣的總收入顯著高於全國平均水平。
The discrepancy is widest in the Philippines, where 25-29 year-olds, on average, pocket 19.7 per cent more than the average Filipino, but the percentage gap is also in double figures in China, Malaysia, Indonesia, India and Mexico, as the first chart shows.
這種收入差在菲律賓最大，25-29歲的人的收入平均比普通菲律賓人高19.7%，在中國、馬來西亞、印度尼西亞、印度和墨西哥，這一收入差百分比也達到了兩位數，如第一張圖所示。
Smaller, but still meaningful, differentials also exist in Thailand, Brazil, Argentina and Russia, with only South Korea in the EM world bucking the trend (and some would class it as developed, anyway), according to data from Euromonitor International, crunched by Capital Group, the US investment house.
泰國、巴西、阿根廷和俄羅斯的這種收入差雖然更小，但依然顯著，在新興市場世界中，唯有韓國與這種趨勢不符（不過有些人會把韓國界定爲發達國家）。以上數據由歐睿國際(Euromonitor International)發佈，美國投資機構資本集團(Capital Group)編制。
Admittedly this definition of “gross income” does not just include salaries but also takes into account investments, remittances and benefits. Millennials may be among the bigger recipients of benefits, at least if they have children, but this would probably be more than offset by the reduced ability of (mostly) mothers to earn a full-time salary.
誠然，“總收入”的定義並不僅僅包括工資，這個概念也將投資、匯款和福利考慮在內。千禧一代可能是接受最多福利的人，至少如果他們有孩子的話就是如此。但有子女的夫妻中一方（大多數情況下是妻子）賺取全職工資的能力下降導致的收入下滑，很可能會超過他們獲得的福利。
Remittances and income from investments would be more likely to flow to older segments of the population, those who have children working overseas or have built up a meaningful pot of wealth.
匯款和投資收入更有可能流向年紀更大的人羣——那些有子女在海外工作，或者積累了可觀財富的人。
Moreover, the plight of emerging market 20-somethings contrasts sharply with their peers in the west. As the chart shows, 25-29 year-olds in the US receive a gross income 11.5 per cent below the national average, and those in the UK fall 3.6 per cent short. German millennials do best of the lot, luxuriating in an income gap of essentially zero.
此外，新興市場裏20多歲的年輕人的處境和西方同齡人形成了鮮明對比。如圖所示，就總收入而言，美國25-29歲人羣比全國平均水平低11.5%，英國25-29歲人羣比全國平均水平低3.6%。德國的千禧一代處境最好，收入差基本爲零。
As to why young people in emerging markets are faring so well, analysts universally point to dramatic improvements in education in recent years.
對於新興市場的年輕人處境如此之好的原因，分析人士普遍指向了近年來教育水平的大幅提升。
“It’s mostly down to education. If you look at the education of people in China or India compared to their parents or grandparents they are much more likely to have a degree or at least some form of higher qualification,” says Martyn Hole, investment specialist at Capital Group.
“這主要要歸結於教育。如果你看一看中國或者印度的年輕人，你會發現，他們很可能擁有學位或者至少接受過某種形式的高等教育，這與他們的父輩或祖父輩情況不同。”資本集團的投資專員馬丁•霍爾(Martyn Hole)說。
Charles Robertson, global chief economist at Renaissance Capital, a Moscow-based investment bank, says “many 54-65 year-olds won’t be as educated, on average, as 25-34 year-olds now.”
莫斯科投行晉新資本(Renaissance Capital)的全球首席經濟學家查爾斯•羅伯遜(Charles Robertson)說：“平均而言，現在許多54-65歲的人的教育水平不如25-34歲的人。”
Although the same will be true in developed markets, education levels have improved far faster in EMs, albeit from a far lower base.
儘管在這方面發達市場的情況也是如此，但新興市場教育水平提升速度要快得多（雖然起點較低）。
“Back in 1980, only around 30-45 per cent of [school-age] Brazilians were at secondary school. So over half of people now aged 65 would be [educated to] primary school age only. I’m sure that’s true of many 55 year-olds too,” says Mr Robertson.
“在1980年，巴西只有大約30%-45%的（適齡）人口在上中學。因此現在65歲的人超過一半隻上到小學。我敢肯定，很多55歲的人也是如此，”羅伯遜說。
“In Russia the current 55-64 year-old cohort was well educated but in the communist ethos, not in market economics. Now some young people will have degrees, and be better educated than the average.”
“在俄羅斯，現在55-64歲的羣體受過良好教育，但他們是在共產主義思想下，而非市場經濟下受的教育。現在一些年輕人有學位，還會接受更高層次的教育。”
Mr Hole believes the trend of younger workers out-earning their older peers has further to run, rather than being a one-off adjustment, given the emphasis parents are increasingly putting on education.
霍爾認爲，考慮到父母日益重視教育，更年輕的勞動者比更年長的勞動者賺得更多的趨勢不會是一次性調整，還將持續更長時間。
This can be seen clearly in a country such as South Korea, where parents spend so much on private education that “it’s almost a one-child policy” because the cost of educating two children in this manner would be prohibitively high for most families, Mr Hole says. But even Brazil, on the other side of the planet, “has hundreds of private schools”.
這一點在韓國這樣的國家可以很明顯地看出。韓國父母在私立學校教育上投入瞭如此之多，以至於“幾乎可以說是獨生子女政策”，因爲按照這種方式教育兩個孩子的成本是大多數家庭難以承受的，霍爾說。但即使是在地球另一邊的巴西，也“有數百所私立學校”。
“In some of these [EM] countries the number of people going to college is still far lower than in the west, so I would expect the trend to continue for some time,” he adds.
“這些（新興市場）國家中，有些國家上大學的人數依然遠低於西方，因此我預期這一趨勢將會持續一段時間，”他補充。
Some believe demographic trends may also be fuelling the higher earnings of younger workers.
有些人認爲，人口趨勢可能也促進年輕勞動者賺取更高收入。
Mr Robertson says that in countries such as Russia and China “the number of 15-24 year-olds is shrinking relative to 10 years ago”, meaning the younger people who are in the workforce are more in demand and can bid up their wages.
羅伯遜稱，在俄羅斯和中國等國家，“相比10年前，15-24歲的人口數量正在縮水”，這意味着就業市場對處於勞動年齡的年輕人需求更旺盛，他們可以擡高工資。
This is certainly the case in Russia, where the number of 18-29 year-olds has fallen from 28.4m in 2010 to 24.4m in 2015, according to data from Euromonitor, while the number of 30-59 year-olds has edged up to 63.1m.
歐睿國際的數據顯示，俄羅斯的確是這樣，年齡18-29歲之間的人口數量由2010年的2840萬人下滑至2015年的2440萬人，與此同時30歲-59歲的人口數量小幅增加至6310萬人。
This trend is likely to continue, with an average of 1.33m people a year in the 9-17 age cohort, compared with 2.03m per year for 18-29 year-olds (but 1.73m/year for 0-8 year-olds).
考慮到9-17歲年齡段中的每一歲的平均人口爲133萬，而18-29歲每一歲的平均人口爲203萬（但0-8歲每一歲的人口爲173萬），上述趨勢很可能延續。
In China, despite the introduction of the one-child policy in 1980, this trend has yet to emerge. The country has 21.4m people per year in the 18-29 age group, unchanged from 2010 and a little higher than for those aged 30-59. However, it is just a matter of time, with China having just 16.3m people a year in the 9-17 cohort.
儘管中國於1980年引入了獨生子女政策，但是這種趨勢目前尚未出現。中國18-29歲年齡段中每一歲的平均人口爲2140萬，自2010年以來一直未變，比30-59歲每一歲的平均人口略高一點。然而，該趨勢的出現只是時間問題，目前中國9-17歲每一歲僅有1630萬人。
Nevertheless, Mr Hole says Capital Group has heard of “some very serious [labour] shortages”.
儘管如此，霍爾稱，資本集團已經聽說過“一些非常嚴重的（勞動力）短缺情況”。
“We have talked to some engineering companies operating in China. They had to increase wages by 10-15 per cent to stop people going to another company” — a trend he says is also evident in some consumer-related sectors.
“我們和一些在中國經營的機械製造公司談過。它們不得不漲薪10%-15%以阻止員工跳槽。”他稱這種趨勢在某些與消費者相關的部門也很明顯。
Mr Hole postulates that China may now have reached the “Lewis turning point”, where the once-inexhaustible pool of surplus rural labour dries up and wages rise rapidly.
霍爾假定，中國眼下可能達到了“劉易斯拐點”(Lewis Turning Point)，曾一度取之不盡的農村剩餘勞動力池正在乾涸，工資水平迅速上升。
This raises a couple of interesting issues. The outsized income of millennials should be good news for companies selling to younger adults. But if part of the reason these people are earning so much is that there are fewer of them, the benefit is negated to some degree.
這引發了幾個有趣的問題。千禧一代的收入超出平均水平，對面向年輕人出售商品的企業來說應該是好消息。但是，如果年輕人收入豐厚的部分原因是年輕人更少了，那麼這種好處在某種程度上就會大打折扣。
Secondly, it raises the prospect that today’s well-paid millennials will see their relative wages fall as they age and younger, smarter workers are more in demand — the opposite to the traditional model in the developed world and something that may prove psychologically difficult for some.
第二，它帶來了這樣一種可能性，即隨着年齡增長，現在待遇豐厚的千禧一代將看到自己的相對工資下滑，更年輕、更聰明的勞動者將更加搶手——這與發達世界的傳統模式正好相反，對某些人來說在心理上可能很難接受。
Mr Robertson does not believe that millennials’ earnings will fall (as “they won’t become less educated as they get older”) but adds that “demographics and improving education mean 10 year-olds in these countries have a lot to look forward to”.
羅伯遜不認爲千禧一代的收入會下滑（因爲“他們的教育程度並不會隨着年齡增長而降低”），但是他補充稱，“人口結構特徵和教育水平提高意味着，這些國家當前10歲的孩子們前景光明”。
Jan Dehn, head of research at Ashmore Investment Management, cautions that the income data may not be entirely reliable, given the preponderance of informal, unrecorded labour markets in many emerging countries.
安石投資管理公司(Ashmore Investment Management)的研究主管簡•德恩(Jan Dehn)警告稱，考慮到未記錄在案的非正規勞動力市場在很多新興國家十分發達，收入數據可能並不完全可信。
Nevertheless, for him, the rise of the millennials is vindication of his faith in the emerging world.
話雖如此，在他看來，千禧一代的崛起印證了他對新興世界的信心。
Mr Dehn believes that, over time, income per head in emerging markets should converge on levels in the developed world. As the second chart shows, for decades there was no sign of this.
德恩認爲，隨着時間推移，新興市場的人均國民收入應該會與發達國家的水平趨於一致。如圖表二所示，在20多年時間裏沒有出現這種跡象。
Mr Dehn attributes this to the Cold War, when both sides had their client “tinpot dictators”, which led to widespread corruption and intermittent coups, sapping growth.
德恩把這歸咎於“冷戰”，當時雙方都有各自的“無能獨裁者”，導致普遍的腐敗問題和陸續發生的政變，破壞了經濟增長。
Even in the 1990s, after the end of the Cold War, growth per head was no faster than in the west, as many countries gradually ditched their dictatorships and built institutions. As a result, the political, social and economic backdrop only became conducive to strong growth this century, when EMs have started to converge on the west.
即使是在冷戰結束後的上世紀90年代，很多國家逐漸拋棄了獨裁統治並建立了各項制度，發展中國家的人均增長也不比西方快。因此，新興市場的政治、社會和經濟環境是在本世紀才變得有利於經濟強勁增長，此時新興市場經濟體開始縮小與西方經濟體的差距。
Mr Dehn makes the point that 25-29 year-olds are the first generation to have been born in the post-Cold War era and to have benefited from the education and employment opportunities that have emerged since the millennium.
德恩提出，目前年齡在25-29歲之間的人，是在後冷戰時代出生並受益於千禧年以來出現的教育和就業機會的第一代人。
“This is the first generation of people who have come through a more stable, prosperous economic environment and stable politics and [EM countries] can attract foreign capital, so they can get good jobs,” he says.
“這是在比較穩定、富足的經濟環境和穩定的政治環境中長大的第一代人，（新興國家）可以吸引外國資本，因此他們可以找到好工作，”他稱。
As to whether the millennials will prosper or decline from here, Mr Dehn adds: “In relative terms they should get poorer with every generation, but they should get wealthier in absolute terms.”
至於千禧一代今後是會發展得越來越來還是逐漸走下坡路，德恩補充稱：“按相對價值計算，他們應該一代比一代窮，但是按絕對價值計算，他們應該會越來越富有。”
