流入新興市場證券資金繼續激增
The recent rally in emerging market assets has slowed somewhat but EM portfolio flows are still in “surge” territory, according to the Institute of International Finance.
國際金融協會(IIF)表示，新興市場資產價格最近的這波漲勢有所放緩，但流入新興市場證券的資金流動仍處於“激增”區域。
One big beneficiary is Brazil, where investors seem convinced that the government of the unpopular Dilma Rousseff is about to fall and be replaced by a team of reformist technocrats, apparently poised to take power.
巴西是一大受益者，投資者似乎相信，不得人心的迪爾瑪•羅塞夫(Dilma Rousseff)政府即將垮臺，被改革派技術官僚取而代之，後者顯然已準備好掌權。
But Brazil is far from alone. The IIF’s figures — based on a sample of seven EMs that report daily data — suggest that the euphoria is broad-based and applies to commodity and manufacturing-driven EMs alike.
但巴西絕非唯一受益者。國際金融協會的數字（基於七個新興市場國家每日報告數據的樣本）似乎表明，樂觀情緒普遍瀰漫，涵蓋依賴大宗商品和依賴製造業的兩大新興市場羣體。
The IIF calls a “surge” or “reversal” in non-resident cross-border portfolio flows to EMs when the seven-day moving average (MA) rises above or falls below a “confidence band” one and a quarter standard deviations either side of the 28-day MA of those flows.
國際金融協會對流入新興市場的非居民跨境證券投資流動“激增”或“逆轉”的定義是，7天移動平均線(MA)升至“信心區間”上方或者跌至該區間下方，這個信心區間是此類資金流動28天移動平均線上下兩側的1.25標準偏差。
The data come from seven countries: India, Indonesia, Thailand and South Africa (equity and bond flows), Brazil and South Korea (equities only) and Hungary (bonds only). Together, they account for 52 per cent of cross-border EM equity flows and 15 per cent of bond flows, according to the IIF.
數據來自七個國家：印度、印尼、泰國和南非（股票和債券投資流動）；巴西和韓國（僅限股票）；以及匈牙利（僅限債券）。據國際金融協會介紹，加在一起，它們佔新興市場跨境股票投資流動的52%，債券投資流動的15%。
The IIF’s latest surge began on March 3. It will remain in place until the two MAs meet again (the seven-day MA re-entered the confidence band March 10).
國際金融協會數據的最新“激增”始於3月3日。在兩條平均線再度交集（7日平均線已在3月10日重新進入“信心區間”）之前，資金流動將一直算是“激增”。
Flows turned positive on February 26, since which time the seven countries have registered combined inflows of $7.6bn, the IIF said. This makes the latest influx more powerful than those that occurred in February and October. All seven of the IIF’s countries registered inflows in the most recent week of data.
據國際金融協會介紹，資金流動在2月26日轉爲正值，自那以來這七個國家總計錄得76億美元流入。這意味着最新的資金流入比今年2月和去年10月出現的流入規模更大。最近一週的數據顯示，國際金融協會追蹤的七個國家都錄得資金流入。
Neil Shearing, chief EM economist at Capital Economics, says markets are enjoying a relief rally spurred by the realisation that things are not as bleak as they appeared during the first weeks of 2016. “An awful lot of bad news was priced in,” he said. “The negative sentiment was a bit overdone.”
凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)首席新興市場經濟學家尼爾•希林(Neil Shearing)表示，市場如釋重負般地展開一波反彈行情，其觸發因素是人們意識到，形勢並不像今年頭幾周所顯示的那樣黯淡。“很多利空消息已被反映在價格上，”他表示。“前一陣的負面情緒有點過頭了。”
Only six or eight weeks ago, the fear on markets was that China was entering a crisis and commodity prices were in freefall. Now, that sense of dread has been lifted.
僅僅6至8周前，市場擔心中國正陷入一場危機，大宗商品價格斷崖式下跌。現在，這種恐懼感已經消散。
“Fears over China have ebbed, commodities have stabilised and the markets are seeing this as saying something about the state of demand rather than supply,” Mr Shearing said. “The sense of impending EM crisis has ebbed.”
“對中國的擔心已經消退，大宗商品有所企穩，市場認爲這反映了關於需求、而非供應的一些實情，”希爾表示。“新興市場危機即將來臨的感覺已經消退。”
The relief may have been supported by data out of China at the weekend.
人們的寬慰感覺可能得到上週末中國數據的支持。
They showed a moderate growth in fixed investment in January and February and — in spite of what David Hensley and colleagues at JPMorgan described as “soft” data on industrial output, “disappointing” trade figures and retail sales that had “moderated somewhat” — contained nothing to suggest investors should start panicking again.
這些數據顯示，1月和2月的固定資產投資出現溫和增長，同時沒有任何跡象說明投資者應該再度開始恐慌，儘管大衛•亨斯利(David Hensley)和他在摩根大通(JPMorgan)的同事們形容工業產出數據“疲軟”，貿易數據“令人失望”，而零售銷售數據“有所放緩”。
The IIF’s data show that the broad EM sell-off that began in the middle of last year has been more gradual but roughly as deep as the “taper tantrum” of 2013, and much less severe than the sell-off that accompanied the global financial crisis of 2008-09.
國際金融協會的數據顯示，始於去年年中的新興市場普遍拋售，相比2013年美聯儲宣佈可能縮減量化寬鬆後出現的“縮減恐慌”期間更加平緩，但深度大致相同，同時遠遠沒有2008-09年全球金融危機期間的拋售那麼嚴重。
