企業應關注新興市場城市而非國家

Over the next decade, a massive wave of urbanisation across the emerging world will quadruple the size of the global “consumer class” and result in emerging markets driving as much as three-quarters of world economic growth.

在未來十年，新興世界大規模的城市化浪潮將讓全球“消費階層”規模增長3倍，新興市場因此將貢獻四分之三的全球經濟增長。

This is clearly an exciting prospect for business leaders searching for new growth opportunities. However, as businesses allocate resources and develop strategies, the concept of “emerging markets”, or even groups of high potential countries such as Brics (Brazil, Russia, India and China), is no longer particularly helpful. Executives need to develop a more granular view of the world, one that goes beyond broad groupings — or even individual countries — to focus on cities.

對於尋求新的增長機遇的商界領導人來說，這種前景顯然令人興奮。然而，在企業部署資源和發展戰略時，“新興市場”、乃至“金磚四國”（Bric，指巴西、俄羅斯、印度和中國）等高潛力國家集團的概念，卻不再有特別大的幫助。公司高管們需要從更細微的角度看世界，他們要越過廣泛的集團乃至單個國家，聚焦於城市。

Cities are where the growth is occurring. By 2025, urban consumers could spend an additional $20tn a year — not counting an extra $10tn of physical capital investment to meet the needs of expanding urban populations.

城市是增長的源頭。到2025年，城市消費者每年的支出可能比現在增加20萬億美元，這還不包括爲滿足不斷增長的城市人口的需求而額外增加的10萬億美元有形資本投資。

The pace and scale is historic: China and India, with a combined population of more than 2.5bn, doubled their GDP per capita in 12 and 16 years respectively. By comparison, Britain started its industrial revolution in the 18th century with less than 10m people and took more than 150 years to double its GDP per capita. While it is true that emerging markets is where the growth is, the term emerging markets is not a helpful unit for resource allocation strategies.

這樣的速度和規模是歷史性的：中國和印度兩國人口總數超過25億，它們分別在12年和16年的時間裏使人均GDP翻倍。相比之下，英國在18世紀開始工業革命時的人口不足1000萬，用了逾150年才實現人均GDP翻倍。儘管新興市場確實是增長源頭，但新興市場概念對於資源配置戰略不再是有用的單元。

Research by the McKinsey Global Institute indicates that 440 emerging market cities — very few of them “megacities” — will account for close to half of expected global GDP growth between now and 2025.

麥肯錫全球研究所(McKinsey Global Institute)的研究顯示，在從現在到2025年預期的全球GDP增長中，440個新興市場城市（其中很少是“特大型城市”）所佔比例將接近一半。

Many of them may be unfamiliar. Take Foshan, Porto Alegre and Surat — cities that are unlikely to be high on the pRiority lists of many western executives, though each has more than 4m inhabitants and a vibrant base of consumers. Surat, 180 miles north of Mumbai, accounts for about two-fifths of India’s textile production. Foshan, on the Pearl River in Guangdong Province, is China’s seventh largest city in terms of GDP. Porto Alegre is capital of the fourth largest state in Brazil.

其中許多城市可能不爲人熟悉。以佛山、阿雷格里港(Porto Alegre)和蘇拉特(Surat)爲例，這3個城市在衆多西方公司高管的重點關注清單上不太可能排在前列，儘管每個城市都有逾400萬居民和富有活力的消費者基礎。蘇拉特位於孟買北部180英里處，大約佔到印度紡織業生產的五分之二。按GDP計算，位於廣東省珠江三角洲的佛山是中國第七大城市。阿雷格里港是巴西第四大州的首府。

Over the next decade, each of these cities will contribute more to global growth than Madrid, Milan or Zurich.

在未來十年，這些城市中的每座城市對全球增長的貢獻都將超過馬德里、米蘭或者蘇黎世。

Resources are likely to be allocated incorrectly if urbanisation-driven growth is pursued through the lens of emerging markets or a grouping of countries, such as Brics. Bangkok and Jakarta have greater growth potential than Delhi. Ho Chi Minh and Lagos offer more opportunity than Mangalore and Urumqi. S漀 Paulo, Beijing, Rio de Janeiro and Shanghai rank highest in a targeted analysis for market growth for laundry products but Lagos, Dar es Salaam and Dhaka have the highest numbers of young entry-level consumers. In China, household consumption of yoghurt is significantly higher in Wuhan than in Jinhua or Hefei.

如果透過新興市場或者金磚國家等國家集團的棱鏡來追求城市化驅動的增長，資源就有可能被錯誤配置。曼谷和雅加達的增長潛力超過德里。胡志明市和拉各斯(Lagos)提供的機遇超過芒格洛爾(Mangalore)和烏魯木齊。在對洗衣產品市場增長的定向研究中，聖保羅、北京、里約熱內盧和上海排名最高，但拉各斯、達累斯薩拉姆(Dar es Salaam)和達卡(Dhaka)的入門級年輕消費者人數最多。在中國，就酸奶的家庭消費量來說，武漢遠高於金華或者合肥。

Until quite recently, most executives did not pay sufficient heed to cities; indeed, a 2012 McKinsey survey showed that more than 60 per cent regarded cities as an irrelevant unit of strategic planning. That is now starting to change. Companies that adopt a strategic city-focused approach may gain early-mover benefits. For some, developing better insights into demographic and income trends — such as an understanding of the urban areas where the population of older, wealthier consumers is growing most rapidly — will be sufficient. Others may need to dig deeper, learning the market dynamics of specific products in target cities.

大多數高管直到不久前還沒有足夠重視城市。實際上，麥肯錫在2012年的一份調查顯示，逾60%的高管認爲城市在戰略規劃中不是重要的單元。現在這種狀況開始發生改變。戰略上以城市爲重點的公司可能贏得先行優勢。對一些公司來說，更好地洞察人口和收入趨勢——比如城市區域中哪裏較年長、較富裕的消費者人口增長最爲迅速——就足夠了。其他公司可能需要更深入地挖掘，瞭解目標城市中具體產品的市場動態。

As the locus of global economic activity shifts, and as the western world ages, companies should be aware of the growth dynamic that is playing out in cities in what we still refer to as “emerging markets”. Business leaders who give their strategies and their resource allocation a granular city dimension could find themselves in a better position to allocate investments effectively and to seize more readily the growth opportunities at hand.

隨着全球經濟活動軌跡轉移和西方世界步入老齡化，公司應該意識到在仍被我們統稱爲“新興市場”的城市中出現的增長動力。在細微的城市維度規劃戰略和配置資源的商界領袖可能發現，他們能更好地有效部署投資，而且更容易抓住增長機遇。