全球新興市場FDI重新洗牌
The slowdown in emerging markets has hit foreign direct investment flows into much of the developing world. But there are significant disparities among geographical regions.
隨着新興市場經濟放緩，流入許多發展中國家的外商直接投資(FDI)也受到了影響。但各地區間存在明顯差異。Advanced economies are expected to see stronger economic growth in 2015, while growth in emerging economies is projected to decline from 4.6 per cent in 2014 to 4.3 per cent in 2015, according to the International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook.
根據國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)最新的《世界經濟展望報告》(World Economic Outlook)，2015年發達經濟體有望加快經濟增長，而新興經濟體的增長率預計將從2014年的4.6%下降到4.3%。
Asia’s emerging markets have continued to perform well in attracting FDI, with India, Malaysia and Vietnam all seeing large increases in the number of inbound greenfield investment projects in 2014 compared with the previous year, according to a report from fDi Intelligence, a data division of the Financial Times group. Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand also enjoyed increases last year. China, the region’s largest FDI destination by a long measure, had a rise of 4 per cent in projects and 9 per cent in capital investment — suggesting that FDI into China could be reaching a plateau due to slowing growth and rising costs.
根據英國《金融時報》集團旗下數據部門fDi Intelligence的一份報告，亞洲新興市場在吸引FDI方面繼續表現良好，2014年印度、馬來西亞和越南的綠地投資項目數量與上年相比均出現大幅增長。印尼、新加坡和泰國吸引的項目數量也有所增長。中國作爲亞洲地區長期以來最大的FDI目的地，去年項目數量增長了4%，資本投資增加了9%，這表明受經濟增長放緩以及成本上升因素影響，流向中國的FDI可能進入了一個增長平臺期。
Regionally, Africa witnessed the largest increase in inward investment in 2014 versus 2013, at 65 per cent. Egypt, Morocco and Mozambique saw large increases in project numbers, while Egypt, Angola, Morocco, Ghana and Zambia all moved into the top 10 destinations in the region by capital investment, replacing Iraq, Jordan, Ethiopia, Algeria and Kenya, countries that have been affected by geopolitical uncertainty or security issues. Ghana, Nigeria and South Africa saw decreases in their project numbers.
從地區整體來看，非洲2014年外來投資創下最大增幅，較2013年增加了65%。埃及、摩洛哥和莫桑比克在項目數量上均出現大幅增長，同時，按資本投資計算，埃及、安哥拉、摩洛哥、加納和贊比亞全都進入該地區前十大投資目的地之列，取代了伊拉克、約旦、埃塞俄比亞、阿爾及利亞和肯尼亞等受到地緣政治不確定性或安全問題影響的國家。加納、尼日利亞和南非的項目數量則出現下降。In the Middle East, the United Arab Emirates was the leading destination by number of projects attracted, with 11 per cent growth in 2014. War-torn Iraq saw its number of inward FDI projects halved in 2014. Qatar and Saudi Arabia both had double-digit decreases in project numbers.
在中東，以項目數量計算，阿聯酋是最大的投資目的地國，2014年項目數量增加11%。飽受戰爭蹂躪的伊拉克2014年FDI項目數量減少了一半。卡塔爾和沙特阿拉伯在項目數量上都出現了兩位數的下降。Emerging Europe had a difficult time in 2014, with a dearth of outbound investments from Russia impacting negatively on investment levels across central, eastern and southeastern Europe and the CIS markets. FDI into Russia itself took a plunge with a 39 per cent decrease in project numbers, although large investments by a handful of Chinese investors kept capital investment levels at an estimated $12bn.
歐洲新興市場在2014年度過了一段艱難時光，由於缺乏來自俄羅斯的投資，歐洲中部、東部和東南部以及獨聯體市場的投資水平都受到了影響。俄羅斯自身的FDI項目也銳減39%，但得益於若干中國投資者的大筆投資，其資本投資水平保持在120億美元左右。Ukraine, locked in sectarian strife in the eastern part of the country and teetering on the brink of war with Russia, saw capital investment drop by 80 per cent and projects by 64 per cent. Less predictably, Turkey, among the fastest growing investment destinations in recent years, was hit with a 49 per cent drop in capital investment and it fell out of the top ten list of destination countries in Europe by project numbers. The Turkish economy grew less than 3 per cent last year, according to the state statistics agency, missing government targets, while violence in neighbouring Iraq and Syria rattled confidence.
烏克蘭由於該國東部地區的宗派衝突，加上瀕臨與俄羅斯爆發戰爭，FDI流入大幅減少，資本投資下降了80%，項目數量減少了64%。土耳其是近年增長最快的投資目的地國家之一，但出乎意料的是，去年該國FDI資本投資下降了49%，其因此跌出了歐洲以項目數量計十大投資目的地國家排行榜。根據土耳其國家統計機構數據，去年土耳其經濟增速不足3%，沒有達到政府目標，同時鄰國伊拉克和敘利亞的暴力事件也打擊了投資者對該國的信心。Poland and Romania saw slight declines in project numbers, of 1 per cent and 2 per cent respectively. Among the few countries in the region to enjoy a rise in FDI, Macedonia had a 35 per cent increase in project numbers and a 74 per cent increase in capital investment last year.
波蘭和羅馬尼亞的FDI項目數量出現輕微下跌，分別減少1%和2%。馬其頓是該地區少數幾個FDI增加的國家之一，去年項目數量增加35%，資本投資增加74%。Latin America and the Caribbean has been the worst performing developing region for FDI, with a 39 per cent decline in capital investment and a 16 per cent decline in the number of FDI projects last year.
拉丁美洲和加勒比地區是吸引FDI方面表現最差的發展中地區，去年該地區FDI資本投資下降39%，項目數量下降16%。All of the top 10 FDI destination countries in the region had decreases in project numbers in 2014 except for fast-growing Panama. These included Mexico (with a 15 per cent decline), Brazil (-4 per cent), Colombia (-41 per cent), Chile (-27 per cent), Argentina (-26 per cent), Peru (-22 per cent), Costa Rica (-15 per cent), Puerto Rico (-33 per cent) and Uruguay (-13 per cent).
除增長迅速的巴拿馬以外，2014年該地區前十大FDI目的地國家的項目數量全都出現下降，分別是：墨西哥，下降15%；巴西，下降4%；哥倫比亞，下降41%；智利，下降27%；阿根廷，下降26%；祕魯，下降22%；哥斯達黎加，下降15%；波多黎各，下降33%；烏拉圭，下降13%。
