新興市場復甦基礎脆弱
An air of slightly uneasy calm hangs over the economies of emerging markets. EM asset prices — and currencies for the most part — have continued to rise in recent weeks after recovering from the turmoil at the beginning of the year. Last week, the Institute of International Finance said that the recovery in emerging economies had continued into the second quarter, the estimated 3.4 per cent annualised growth in April being 0.4 percentage points above its 12-month moving average.
新興市場的經濟領域籠罩着平靜的氣氛，但其中又隱含着一絲不安。新興市場資產價格擺脫年初的動盪出現回升後，在近幾周裏繼續上揚；各國的貨幣在大部分時間裏也延續漲勢。國際金融協會(IIF)上週表示，第二季度新興經濟體繼續復甦，4月份的年化增長率約爲3.4%，較12個月移動平均值高出0.4個百分點。
But it would be a foolhardy investor who infers that everything in the EM world is fine. Too much of the recovery seems to be owed to volatile factors, notably a rise in commodity prices and a debt-fuelled expansion in the first quarter in China, which could easily be reversed. The fact that the rally over the past couple of months has even swept up currencies like the Brazilian real and the Turkish lira, beset by political uncertainties and a creaking economic model, suggests that they have more to do with a short-term bounce than improvement in fundamentals.
但是，投資者若就此斷定新興市場一切安好就不明智了。在很大程度上，復甦似乎可以歸因爲變動性因素所致，主要是大宗商品價格上升，以及第一季度中國經濟在債務驅動下出現擴張，後一個趨勢很容易逆轉。近兩個月裏的反彈走勢甚至涵蓋巴西雷亞爾和土耳其里拉等貨幣，這兩種貨幣都受政治不確定性和有缺陷的經濟模式的困擾——這個事實表明，本輪上漲更多與短期回升有關，而不是基本面改善所致。
If the commodity recovery has run its course — and the recent sharp falls in iron ore prices are a sign that demand for raw materials remains uncertain — the supportive environment may soon dissipate. And while the dimming prospect of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in the near term has also boosted EM asset prices, expectations of rate hikes are now so low that the potential boost has also probably largely been used up.
如果大宗商品復甦勢頭結束——而且近期鐵礦石價格驟跌表明原材料需求仍不明朗——有利環境或許會很快消失。美聯儲(Fed)在近期加息的可能性不斷降低，也提振了新興市場資產價格，但是鑑於加息預期已是如此之低，潛在的提振效果也很可能已耗盡了。
Signs of serious structural reform in emerging markets remain rare. Nigeria, to its credit, has taken advantage of lower oil prices to lift its price cap on imported fuel. But that was an emergency response to a balance of payments crisis that has seen the currency plummet rather than a determined and principled effort to wean Nigerian consumers off heavily subsidised energy.
新興市場還看不到多少認真執行結構性改革的跡象。值得讚賞的是，尼日利亞已利用油價降低的時機，取消了進口燃料價格上限。但那是針對國際收支危機——導致該國貨幣暴跌——的緊急對策，而不是旨在讓尼日利亞消費者戒掉高額補貼能源的一種堅定、原則性的努力。
In India, prime minister Narendra Modi made a good start with fuel subsidies reform but has yet to make much headway increasing investment, particularly in infrastructure, and tackling corruption. Mexican president Enrique Peña Nieto achieved some early results but has encountered increasing opposition, in particular to education reform.
在印度，納倫德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)的燃油補貼改革開了一個好頭，但他在增加投資（尤其是基建投資）和懲治腐敗方面並未取得多大進展。墨西哥總統恩裏克•佩尼亞•涅託(Enrique Peña Nieto)取得了一些初步成果，但遇到了越來越大的抵制，尤其是在教育改革方面。
Events of recent months have gone some way to recreating the benign external environment for emerging markets in the five years following the global financial crisis — supportive commodity prices and the prospect of low interest rates in the US and other major developed markets for a time to come. But as investors and governments discovered, the removal of those props, or the prospect of their diminishing, can lead to a marked slowing of economic growth and periodic turmoil in asset markets. The worst thing emerging markets could do is to repeat the complacency of the boom years and treat good luck as their due.
近幾個月的形勢發展，已在一定程度上爲新興市場重現了全球金融危機之後五年裏的那種良性外部環境，即有利的大宗商品價格，以及美國及其他主要發達市場將在一段時間裏實行低利率的前景。但投資者和政府發現，一旦移除這些支撐因素、或者如果這些因素逐漸消失，可能會導致新興市場經濟增長大幅放緩、資產市場出現週期性動盪。對新興市場而言，最糟糕的是重新生出繁榮年代那種自滿的心態，把好運氣視爲理所當然。
