G20上海峯會能給世界經濟開出什麼藥方
SHANGHAI — The global economy looks shaky. Markets for things as diverse as oil and European bank shares have plumbed new lows. The tried-and-true cures no longer seem to work.
上海——全球經濟看起來極不穩定。從石油到歐洲銀行股票這些差異極大的東西的市場均跌至新低。那些屢試不爽的解決辦法似乎不再有效。
The task for global leaders this week: Come up with Plan B.
世界領導人本週面臨的任務是制定B計劃。
Finance ministers and central bank governors from the world’s biggest industrialized and developing economies now arriving in Shanghai face their toughest task since the worst days of the global financial crisis. Europe is mired in low growth and Japan is teetering on the brink of recession, even though the Bank of Japan and a lengthening list of European central banks are pushing interest rates ever deeper into negative territory.
世界最大的工業化國家及發展中國家的財政部長和央行行長正陸續抵達上海，面臨自全球金融危機最低谷以來的最艱鉅任務。歐洲陷入低增長，日本瀕臨衰退邊緣，儘管日本央行及越來越多的歐洲央行進一步將利率壓向負值。
China, the world’s leading engine of economic growth in recent years, is struggling with heavy debts, a slowdown in manufacturing, stagnant exports and a flood of money leaving its borders. Countries that depend on selling oil and other resources are struggling under persistently low prices. The United States is facing a drag on growth as the strong dollar makes it cheaper for many consumers and companies to import goods instead of buying them from American businesses.
中國作爲近些年來世界經濟主要的增長引擎，正在應對沉重債務、製造業放緩、出口業停滯不前及資金外流等問題。 由於石油及其他資源的價格持續偏低，依靠出售此類資源發展經濟的國家步履維艱。美元走強促使很多消費者和公司放棄美國公司的產品，轉而購買進口產品，導致美國經濟增長受阻。
That leaves a difficult situation for the economic policy makers of the Group of 20 nations, who will be hard pressed to come up with solutions during their meetings in Shanghai.
這給20國集團的經濟決策者們出了一道難題，將會有很大的壓力促使他們在上海會議中拿出解決方案來。
“What to do about the increasing risks to the recovery is perhaps the single most important question before the finance chiefs in Shanghai,” the International Monetary Fund said this week. It added: “The G-20 must plan now and proactively identify policies that could be rolled out quickly, if downside risks materialize.”
“經濟復甦面臨的風險日益增加，對此要採取怎樣的應對措施，或許就是擺在齊聚上海的財長們面前的最重大的問題，”國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)本週表示。該組織還稱：“20國集團現在必須規劃並主動識別出一些政策，如果下行風險成型，這些政策可以迅速展開。”
During and right after the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, the Group of 20 produced broad agreements on many financial regulations, most notably a tightening of international capital standards. But in the years since, the disparate collection of economies from Argentina to the European Union has been known mostly for agreeing on generalities and making few changes, culminating in an unproductive series of meetings in Turkey last year.
在2008年和2009年，全球金融危機期間和剛剛結束後，20國集團針對很多金融監管制訂了廣泛的協議，其中最引人注目的就是對國際資本標準的收緊。但在之後的這些年裏，這個涵蓋了從阿根廷到歐盟的多元經濟體的集團召開的會議，基本上都是泛泛而談，幾乎沒有出臺任何改革措施，去年在土耳其舉辦的會議也是毫無建樹。
“The Turkish presidency of the G-20 led to no progress on any front,” said Ken Courtis, a prominent international economist and fund manager.
“在土耳其舉辦的20國集團會議沒有取得任何進展，”著名國際經濟學家、基金經理肯·柯蒂斯(Ken Courtis)說。
China, which holds the Group of 20 presidency this year, is one major concern. In August, China devalued its currency, the renminbi, by 4 percent with no warning, setting off sharp sell-offs in global markets. China now faces pressure to weaken the currency further as money leaves the country because of slowing growth — a prospect that could further hurt the global economic outlook.
中國既是今年20集團會議主席國，也是一個主要關注點。去年8月，中國在沒有事先警告的情況下將人民幣貶值了4%，在全球市場上引發大量拋盤。由於經濟放緩，資金正在流出中國，它現在面臨着讓人民幣進一步貶值的壓力——這可能會進一步損害全球經濟前景。
“What we’re concerned about is China. Could there be a break on China’s currency that could tip the global economy into recession?” said Charles Collyns, a former assistant secretary of the Treasury for international finance in the Obama administration who is now the chief economist of the Institute of International Finance.
“我們現在擔心的是中國。中國的貨幣是否會突然變化，進而導致全球經濟陷入衰退？”國際金融研究所(Institute ofInternational Finance)的首席經濟學家查爾斯·科林斯(Charles Collyns)說。他曾在奧巴馬政府擔任財政部助理部長，負責國際金融領域。
Chinese officials appear to have gotten the message that silence is not always golden. At a financial conference here on Thursday, officials described how they would use government deficit spending to spur growth. A senior Chinese central banker pledged to preserve the value of the renminbi by firmly tying its value to a group of other currencies. Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the central bank, has agreed to give a public speech on Friday morning in Shanghai, then hold a rare news conference afterward.
中國官員似乎已經明白，沉默不總是金。本週四在這裏舉行的一個金融會議上，官員們解釋了他們會如何利用政府赤字開支來刺激經濟增長。中國央行的一位高層官員承諾會維持人民幣的幣值，方法是把人民幣與其他一些貨幣牢牢掛鉤。央行行長周小川同意在本週五上午在上海發表一個公開演講，之後再少見地舉行一次新聞發佈會。
China’s devaluations put pressure on rival exporters to do the same or risk losing their competitiveness. Many emerging markets, like Russia and Brazil, have allowed their currencies to fall steeply against the dollar or been forced into it, raising fears of devaluations of the sort seen in the 1930s, which led to a collapse of international trade. Countries with currencies that have stayed strong as safe havens, including the dollar and the Japanese yen, have seen growth suffer.
中國貨幣的貶值給同樣出口的競爭對手帶來了壓力，如果他們不同樣貶值貨幣，就可能會失去競爭力。很多新興市場，如俄羅斯和巴西，要麼是允許其貨幣相對於美元急劇下跌，要麼是被迫這樣做，因此一些人擔心上世紀30年代那樣的貶值狂潮再次發生，令國際貿易崩潰。一些國家的貨幣保持堅挺，被視爲避風港，比如美元和日元，而這些國家的經濟增長都受到了影響。
One of the biggest question marks over the group lies in how much it might do on currencies, beyond a general call for more stable exchange rates. But Chinese officials have worked to deflate expectations that the Shanghai meeting could be a reprise of the Plaza Accord, a deal between major economies in 1985 to fix volatile currency markets.
20國集團身上最大的一個問號是，在貨幣方面，除了泛泛地呼籲更穩定的匯率之外，它還可以做多少事情。不過，中國官員在努力淡化《廣場協議》(Plaza Accord)可能在上海會議中重演的預期。主要經濟體在1985年達成了《廣場協議》，目的是讓動盪的貨幣市場變得穩定。
A senior United States Treasury official said that he expected countries to reiterate previous commitments to manage their currencies responsibly, rather than shift their value. “I see those commitments as being a strong indication from G-20 members that they will manage their currencies in ways that are globally consistent,” he said.
美國財政部一名高級官員表示，他預計各國會重申之前做出的承諾：負責任地管理本國貨幣，不會改變幣值。“我認爲這些承諾將是一個強烈的信號，顯示20國集團的成員國將在全球範圍內採用協調一致的方式管理貨幣，”他說。
The official, who insisted on anonymity because of diplomatic considerations, said that the United States would push instead to call on countries with broadly measured surpluses on trade and royalties to stimulate domestic spending, particularly by consumers.
出於外交方面的考慮，這位官員不願具名。他表示，美國將推進另一項主張，呼籲貿易和稅費盈餘較多的國家刺激國內消費，尤其是消費者支出。
Yet China has already stepped up infrastructure spending so much in the last decade that it is becoming harder to find projects that justify the investment. In Europe, the longstanding caution of the German government about large-scale spending has been a deterrent. In the United States, Republicans in Congress have been leery of the extra borrowing that could be needed to finance additional roads, bridges and rail lines.
然而，中國在過去10年大大增加了基礎設施建設支出，以至於現在找到合理的投資項目變得更難了。德國政府對大規模支出長期持謹慎態度，在歐洲形成了一種阻力。而在美國，對於需要額外借款來資助公路、橋樑和鐵路線項目，國會的共和黨人一直持懷疑態度。
One question is whether China’s presidency this year can make the group more productive.
一個問題是，中國今年擔任主席國，能否讓G20集團變得更有成效。
Except on climate change, for which it made a large commitment to slow down emissions before the Paris agreement in December, China has sought to be recognized as a leader of global diplomacy without taking responsibility for specific results. In Syria, in South Sudan, and at times even on its own border in North Korea, it has been leery of trying to dictate any resolution to longstanding international concerns.
除了氣候變化方面——去年12月在巴黎達成協議之前，中國就做出很大的承諾，表示要減緩碳排放——中國還在竭力使自己被認可爲全球外交事務方面的領導者，但它不願爲一些具體的後果承擔責任。在敘利亞、南蘇丹，有時甚至是在中朝邊境上，中國都謹慎地避免在長期存在的引起國際關切的事務上做出任何表態。
In the Group of 20, China has to cope not only with its own reluctance to take strong stands but also with the lack of a strong international consensus among the disparate nations on what the world should do to strengthen economic growth. “It’s hard in the context of a G-20 communiqué to get really concrete initiatives,” Mr. Collyns said. “So what I would expect is some kind of framework.”
在G20集團中，中國不僅必須應對自身不願採取堅定立場的問題，還要面對迥然不同的各個成員國就世界該做些什麼來拉動經濟增長方面缺乏強烈國際共識的問題。“G20公報裏很難出現真正具體的倡議，”科林斯說。“所以我預計會是一些框架性的東西。”
