中國央行是否改變了人民幣匯率策略
China’s central bank has flummoxed and rattled markets with its apparent shift of goalposts on the renminbi.
中國央行似乎改變了人民幣匯率策略，令市場既困惑又驚慌。
Having spent tens of billions of dollars over recent months in a seemingly Sisyphean attempt to support the renminbi, it has twice this week stood aside while it weakened.
最近幾個月，中國央行動用了數百億美元資金，似乎徒勞地想支撐人民幣匯率。然而，該行本週卻兩度在人民幣走軟時袖手旁觀。
Plenty of domestic government agencies welcome the People’s Bank of China’s willingness to let the market drive down the renminbi against the US dollar. These include the commerce ministry, with its traditional concern for the country’s struggling exporters.
中國央行願意放任市場推低人民幣兌美元匯率，許多國內政府機構自然歡迎，比如一直擔心國內出口企業困境的商務部。
But the blowback on the stock market has magnified the challenge confronting China’s regulator, which has been left struggling to stem the damage.
然而，人民幣走軟給股市造成的衝擊，卻加劇了中國股市監管機構面臨的挑戰，後者正在艱難地試圖減小這種衝擊。
Further afield, the weaker renminbi as measured against the dollar risks sparking beggar-thy-neighbour devaluations across the region.
從更大的範圍來說，人民幣兌美元匯率走軟，可能會在亞太地區引發以鄰爲壑的貶值潮。
The PBoC has traditionally shied away from involvement in the country’s stock markets, which are the preserve of the embattled China Securities Regulatory Commission.
中國央行歷來避免插手股市，因爲那是由中國證監會(CSRC)專門負責的。後者如今已是焦頭爛額。
“The PBoC doesn’t want to get its feet wet in the stock market because it is so chaotic and the rules keep changing so much,” Chen Long, China economist at Gavekal Dragonomics, says. “The PBoC is happy to stay away from it and let the CSRC play the role of clown.”
龍洲經訊(Gavekal Dragonomics)中國經濟學家陳龍表示：“央行並不想管股市的事，因爲股市太過混亂，規則又變來變去。央行樂於站在一邊，讓證監會去出醜。”
The CSRC has come under a barrage of criticism for its on-again, off-again support measures.
中國證監會已因其時有時無的託市措施而飽受批評。
In another reversal, the regulator yesterday confirmed that it would extend a ban on share sales by large shareholders that had been set to expire today.
昨日中國證監會證實將延長原本於今天到期的大股東減持禁令，再次彰顯出其政策的反覆無常。
But some analysts fear that the central bank may have failed to appreciate the strength of the feedback loop between its currency policy and China’s gyrating stock markets, which could force it to once again cushion the renminbi’s accelerating fall against the dollar.
不過，有些分析師擔心，中國央行也許未能認清其匯率政策與波動不定的國內股市之間反饋迴路的威力，這可能會迫使該行再次採取措施緩和人民幣兌美元的加速下跌趨勢。
“The wild market movement appears to be out of the authorities’ expectation,” Zhou Hao, an economist at Commerzbank, says.
德國商業銀行(Commerzbank)經濟學家周浩表示：“股市的劇烈波動似乎超出了當局的預期。”
He notes that there was “aggressive intervention” yesterday in the offshore market, where the renminbi generally trades at a discount to its onshore counterpart, driving the currency from Rmb6.76 against the dollar to Rmb6.70.
他指出，昨天離岸人民幣市場存在“激進的干預行爲”，將人民幣匯率從1美元兌6.76元人民幣推升至1美元兌6.70元人民幣。通常，離岸人民幣匯率會比在岸匯率低一些。
In China, the PBoC sets a daily renminbi-dollar midpoint around which the Chinese currency is allowed to rise or fall by no more than two per cent.
中國央行每日設定人民幣匯率中間價，人民幣匯率只能在中間價上下2%的區間內浮動。
“The [renminbi-dollar midpoint] over the past several days can be well justified,” Mr Chen says. “But it’s true that the PBoC has been much more tolerant of renminbi depreciation. It has been remarkably quiet.”
“過去幾天（人民幣兌美元匯率中間價）可能十分合理，”陳龍表示，“但央行的確對人民幣貶值寬容得多了。央行一直非常平靜。”
While this also appears to contradict the PBoC’s earlier desire — reiterated by officials including Premier Li Keqiang — for currency stability over a “currency war”, analysts including Mr Chen dismiss any inconsistency.
儘管這似乎有悖央行之前保持匯率穩定、避免“貨幣戰爭”的願望——中國總理李克強等官員也重申過這一立場——但陳龍等分析師並不認同中國央行政策前後不一的說法。
Rather than shifting its goal of currency stability, analysts say the PBoC has changed the metrics for measuring that goal.
分析師表示，中國央行並非改變了保持匯率穩定的目標，而是改變了衡量這一目標的指標。
Shortly before the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate rise on December 17, China’s central bank emphasised that it would be carefully watching the renminbi’s movement against a basket of 13 currencies — the CFETS RMB index.
在12月17日美聯儲(Fed)加息前不久，中國央行曾強調會密切觀察人民幣對由13種貨幣組成的一籃子貨幣的匯率走向——中國外匯交易中心(CFETS)人民幣匯率指數。
In contrast to the renminbi’s more than four per cent fall against the dollar since November 1, it has broadly tracked the larger basket.
自11月1日以來，人民幣兌美元匯率累計跌幅超過4%。相比之下，人民幣與一籃子貨幣的走向基本一致。
“Investors should focus more on the index, whereas now they are obsessed with the rate to the dollar,” Tao Wang, China economist at UBS, says.
“投資者應該對CFETS指數投入更多關注，但他們現在卻執着於人民幣兌美元匯率，”瑞銀(UBS)中國經濟學家汪濤表示。
The extent of that obsession was illustrated by yesterday’s sharp falls on China’s stock markets, triggering circuit-breakers that ended trading within half an hour of opening.
這種執着程度可以從昨天中國股市的暴跌中看出。昨日熔斷機制再度觸發，致使股市在開盤交易半小時內休市。
Last night the CSRC said it would suspend the mechanism.
昨天晚間，中國證監會表示將暫停熔斷機制。
Among the institutions responsible for regulating China’s financial sector, the PBoC has traditionally been the staunchest defender of a strong renminbi. Even after the central bank shocked markets in August with a “one-off” devaluation of the renminbi, which it marked down by 1.9 per cent against the dollar, it argued that it was merely responding to calls from the IMF and its big trading partners for the currency to be more market-driven.
在負責監管中國金融業的機構中，中國央行傳統上一直堅定維護強勢人民幣。即使是在2015年8月震驚市場的人民幣“一次性”貶值、導致人民幣兌美元匯率下跌1.9%後，中國央行也聲稱這只是在響應國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)和重要貿易伙伴對人民幣應更加以市場爲導向的呼聲。
As the renminbi came under pressure in the devaluation’s wake, the PBoC sold down its foreign exchange reserves to keep it stable against the dollar.
在那次貶值後，人民幣受到壓力，中國央行於是拋售外匯儲備，以保持人民幣兌美元匯率穩定。
But the Fed’s December rate rise changed the PBoC’s calculus.
但美聯儲12月的加息改變了中國央行的想法。
“Why waste reserves defending a level that isn’t defensible?” says Mr Chen, who expects a “short-term equilibrium” of Rmb6.6 to Rmb6.7 against the dollar in the onshore market.
陳龍表示：“爲何要浪費儲備堅守一個根本守不住的防線呢？”他預計，在岸人民幣兌美元的“短期均衡匯率”爲1美元兌6.6到6.7元人民幣。
Ms Wang, who has a year-end target of Rmb6.8 to the dollar, says: “The depreciation is well within our expectations.”
汪濤預測今年底人民幣兌美元匯率爲1美元兌6.8元人民幣。她表示：“人民幣貶值完全在我們的預期之內。”
