穆迪:中國等新興市場出現放緩跡象
Emerging market countries known for their young populations and rapid economic expansion are showing signs of slower growth, according to one of the largest credit rating agencies.
最大的信用評級機構之一稱，以年輕人口、經濟快速擴張聞名的某些新興市場國家正在出現增長放緩的跡象。Moody’s has revised its gross domestic product growth forecasts for emerging market countries as high inflation and lower export demands from China weigh on their economies.
穆迪(Moody's)修訂了其對一些新興市場國家國內生產總值(GDP)增長的預測，原因是高通脹以及中國進口需求降低拖累了它們的經濟。Economic growth in Brazil and South Africa is expected to be subdued, while the economies of Argentina and Russia are expected to shrink.
巴西和南非的經濟增長預計將放緩，阿根廷和俄羅斯經濟預計將出現萎縮。
Across the 20 largest emerging market countries, excluding China, GDP growth is forecast at 2.1 per cent this year, rising to 2.7 per cent in 2015.
在不包括中國的20個最大的新興市場國家，整體GDP增長今年預計達到2.1%，2015年增速將升至2.7%。This pace of growth is far below pre-crisis levels and is comparable to expectations for larger countries.
這一增長速度遠遠低於危機前的水平，而且與對較大國家經濟增速的預測大致相當。In the G20 growth is forecast to pick up next year, rising from 2.8 per cent in 2014 to 3.2 per cent, although prolonged low growth is expected to remain in the eurozone.
20國集團(G20)國家的增速預計將從2014年的2.8%升至明年的3.2%，而歐元區預計將保持長期的低增長。“In Europe the contrast between robust growth in the UK over the past year and very low growth in the euro area is stark and will be sustained throughout this year and next,” said Marie Diron of the agency’s Macro Financial Analysis unit.
“在歐洲，英國過去一年的強勁增長與歐元區非常低的增長之間對比鮮明，這種局面將在今年和明年持續，”穆迪宏觀金融分析部門的瑪麗•迪龍(Marie Diron)表示。Global growth is expected to become visible in 2015 and few sources of risk are thought to offer a serious threat to this outlook.
全球經濟增長預計將在2015年變得明顯，據信沒有什麼風險來源對這一前景構成嚴重威脅。In spite of mixed economic developments around the world and rising political tension, market volatility has been low and asset prices have remained high.
儘管世界各地的經濟發展有好有壞、政治緊張不斷加劇，但市場波動性一直不高，資產價格居高不下。A sharp slowdown in China, triggered by a property crash, is posited as one possible threat to investor confidence.
由房地產崩盤引發的中國增長急劇放緩，被假定爲可能挫傷投資者信心的一個潛在威脅。However, Moody’s says only a simultaneous correction across several financial markets could have a visible impact on global growth.
不過穆迪表示，只有多個金融市場同時發生回調，纔有可能對全球經濟增長造成明顯影響。
