新興市場國家面臨信貸隱憂
China's latest interest rate cut shows Beijing's willingness to contribute to global efforts to ease credit in response to the slowdown induced by the eurozone crisis–just as it did four years ago after Lehman Brothers collapsed. Unfortunately, its results are unlikely to have the same impact as in 2008-9.
中國昨日降息表明，中國政府願與國際社會共同努力放鬆信貸，以應對歐元區危機導致的全球經濟增長放緩——這與四年前雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)倒閉後中國政府採取的舉措如出一轍。不幸的是，此次行動很難得到與2008年至2009年時一樣的效果。The wave of credit released then by China and other emerging economies washed around the globe, boosting demand for Chilean copper, German cars, and luxury property from Hong Kong to Rio de Janeiro.
2008年中國與其他新興經濟體釋放的信貸在全球範圍內流動，刺激了對智利銅礦、德國汽車以及從香港到里約熱內盧的豪華物業的需求。Now the world can no longer count on emerging markets to deliver the same. Many have less room for financial manoeuvre owing to the after-effects of the post-2008 easing, including higher levels of credit, fears of real estate bubbles and bad loans, and a legacy of unprofitable boom-time investments.
現如今世界不能再繼續寄望由新興經濟體扭轉形勢。2008年以後的信貸寬鬆帶來一系列後續影響，包括信貸水平高企，人們擔憂房地產泡沫和不良貸款問題，以及經濟過熱期的投資項目盈利能力不足等，受此影響，很多新興市場國家的貨幣政策操作空間縮小。
Furthermore, even if governments do release more money, it will have less impact now because good investment projects are harder to find.
此外，即使各國政府擴大流動性投放，所產生的政策效果也將小於2008年，因爲優質投資項目更加難以尋覓。As David Lubin, head of emerging markets economics at Citigroup, the US bank, says of China: "A side effect of [its] investment push is that investment efficiency collapsed. As a result, it now takes more investment to generate an extra unit of GDP. In the same way, it also requires more credit."
花旗集團(Citigroup)新興市場首席經濟學家戴維•盧賓(David Lubin)評價中國稱："中國加速推動投資的副作用之一是投資效率顯著下滑，受此影響，現在需要較以往更多的投資才能產生一單位GDP。也正因如此，中國需要更大規模的信貸投放。"China leads the list of emerging-world governments to expand public sector borrowing. Sovereign debt rose from 20 per cent of gross domestic product in 2007 to 26 per cent last year, fuelling a domestic infrastructure boom and increased demand for commodities. Poland also opened the taps, with its debt-to-GDP ratio rising from 45 per cent to 56 per cent.
中國公共部門的債務規模增速在新興經濟體中位居前列。中國主權債務與GDP之比由2007年的20%升至2011年的26%，受此推動，國內基礎設施建設迎來熱潮，對大宗商品的需求也上升。波蘭同樣採取了開閘放水政策，其公共部門債務與GDP之比由2007年的45%升至2011年的56%。Other governments that went into the crisis with already-high public debt, such as Brazil and India, were more cautious. However, the true credit boom in the developing world has been private rather than public debt, fuelled by low interest rates and willing lenders.
巴西、印度等國在2008年金融危機爆發前的公共債務規模已然較大，因此其政府對進一步舉債更加謹慎。但受利率水平較低和貸款人意願較強影響，發展中國家的信貸激增主要發生在私人部門而非公共部門。In China, private sector credit has risen from 107 per cent of GDP in 2007 to 127 per cent last year, according to Capital Economics, a consultancy. In Brazil, Turkey and Poland, private sector credit has meanwhile risen by as much as 20 percentage points of GDP.
諮詢公司凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)提供的數據顯示，中國私人部門貸款與GDP之比由2007年的107%升至2011年的127%。而同期巴西、土耳其、波蘭等國的私人部門貸款與GDP之比也上升了20個百分點。Countries with slower credit growth are the exceptions. South Korea, for example, has held back because of an earlier painful credit boom, and India because of high interest rates induced by persistently high inflation.
貸款規模增長較慢的國家屬於例外。例如韓國是由於受到較早一次放鬆信貸的痛苦後遺症影響，而印度則是由於持續高通脹導致利率水平高企。Elsewhere, though, the credit surge is in full flow. The latest data show private credit grew in April at annualised rates of 20 per cent or more in Colombia, Indonesia, Turkey and Russia.
其他國家則普遍存在信貸規模激增現象。最新數據顯示，哥倫比亞、印度尼西亞、土耳其和俄羅斯等國4月份私人部門貸款年化增速都已達到或超過20%。Although these countries are relative latecomers to the credit binge, Brazil has been partying from the start. Private credit is still growing 23 per cent a year, even though borrowers are now struggling, as seen in rising delinquent car loans.
上述這些國家加入信貸狂歡相對較晚，巴西則從一開始便加入了狂歡。目前巴西的私人貸款規模仍以每年23%的速度增長，儘管借款人已經出現償還困難，比如汽車貸款不良率就已呈上升趨勢。Credit growth can be a boon, especially in the emerging world: It speeds development by allowing governments to build infrastructure, companies to construct factories and families to buy homes and durable goods.
信貸增長可以是件好事，尤其對新興經濟體而言：信貸增長使政府得以擴大基礎設施建設，企業得以建造廠房，家庭得以購買房產及耐用品，從而加速整體經濟發展。"I do believe that rapid expansion of credit plays a big part in the rise of the emerging world's middle classes," says Arjun Divecha, chairman of US fund manager GMO.
美國基金管理公司GMO董事長阿爾瓊•戴維查(Arjun Divecha)表示："我認爲信貸規模快速擴張對於新興市場國家中產階級的崛起發揮了重要作用。"But credit growth rates matter. Rapid rises are often linked to lax controls and property speculation, which can lead to bad debts and unproductive investments.
但信貸擴張速度同樣具有重要影響。信貸規模快速增長通常與監管鬆懈以及房地產投機有關，而這可能帶來不良貸款，並導致投資回報率低下。In China, for example, total credit expanded by almost half of GDP in 2009, and again in 2010. Now, some economists say, it may have maxed out.
以中國爲例，2009年信貸增量幾乎爲當年GDP的二分之一，並且2010年同樣如此。部分經濟學家認爲，中國的信貸規模現已由峯值回落。
