標普將俄羅斯主權債務評級降至垃圾級

NEW YORK — As Russia deals with the heavy toll of Western sanctions and falling oil prices, a major credit ratings agency on Monday downgraded the country’s sovereign debt to below investment grade, the first time it has fallen to that level in more than a decade.

紐約——俄羅斯目前正在應對西方制裁和油價下跌所帶來的慘痛影響；週一，一個主要信用評級機構把俄羅斯的主權債務下調至低於投資級，這是十多年以來，它首次降到這一級別。

With Russia’s oil boom years fading and tensions rising with the West, the ratings agency, Standard & Poor’s, cited narrowing possibilities for the Russian government and companies to service their debt. A looming problem, the agency’s analysts highlighted, was the lack of options for the Russian central bank, which will have to decide this year between propping up the ruble or helping the teetering domestic banking sector.

由於俄羅斯的石油繁榮已經漸漸走下坡路，而與西方的關係日益緊張，信用評級機構標準普爾(Standard & Poor’s)認爲，俄羅斯政府和企業能夠償還債務的可能性極低。該機構的分析師強調，一個揮之不去的隱憂是，俄羅斯央行的選擇不多。央行今年將決定是選擇力挺盧布，還是幫助搖搖欲墜的國內銀行業。

“In our view, the Russian Federation’s monetary policy flexibility has weakened, as have economic growth prospects,” the ratings agency wrote.

該評級機構寫道，“在我們看來，俄羅斯聯邦的貨幣政策的靈活性有所減弱，經濟增長前景也是一樣。”

Russia’s economy is already heading into a deep recession. The agency said it projected average growth of 0.5 percent each year for the next three.

俄羅斯經濟正在邁入深度衰退。該機構表示，它預計未來三年，俄羅斯的年均增長率將爲0.5％。

“Stresses could mount for Russian corporations and banks that have foreign currency debt service requirements without a concomitant foreign currency revenue stream,” Standard & Poor’s wrote.

標準普爾寫道，“需要償還外幣債務，而且又沒有外幣收入來源的俄羅斯企業和銀行所面臨的壓力可能會增加。”

The downgrade cut Russia’s credit rating by only one notch. But that was enough to push the government’s debt into the category of junk bonds.

此次降級只把俄羅斯的信用評級下調了一個檔位。但是，此舉已足以把俄羅斯政府的債券歸入垃圾債券之列。

Standard & Poor’s, along with the other agencies, have been whittling away at Russia’s credit ratings since the conflict with Ukraine began, and oil prices started to slide. The two other main ratings agencies, Fitch and Moody’s, also downgraded Russia’s sovereign debt this month, though not to the level of junk bonds.

自俄羅斯與烏克蘭爆發衝突以來，標準普爾及其他機構不斷降低俄羅斯的信用等級，油價也開始下跌。其他兩大評級機構惠譽國際(Fitch)和穆迪(Moody's)也在本月下調俄羅斯的主權債務評級，但沒有降到垃圾債券等級。

Russia’s government has tried to shrug off the ratings actions. The central bank does not formally recognize Western ratings for some banking transactions. Separately, Russia has tried to create a joint ratings agency with China to supplant the three big Western ratings giants.

俄羅斯政府試圖對評級行動不予理會。俄羅斯央行沒有正式承認西方機構對銀行交易的評級。另外，俄羅斯試圖與中國建立一個聯合評級機構，以取代西方國家的三大評級巨頭。

But even the single downgrade by Standard & Poor’s could ripple widely through Russia’s economy. It will force many bond funds permitted to own only investment-grade securities to sell Russian debt.

但僅僅標準普爾的降級就能對俄羅斯經濟產生廣泛影響。這將迫使很多隻能持有投資級證券的債券基金出售俄羅斯債券。

The ratings downgrade had been anticipated for weeks, and yet after its publication on Monday the ruble plunged to new lows against the dollar. The currency fell about 7 percent in after-hours trading to more than 68 rubles to the dollar.

幾周前就已經有人預測會降級，但在標準普爾於週一宣佈降級以後，盧布兌美元匯率跌至新低。俄羅斯貨幣在盤後交易下跌7%，跌至1美元兌逾68盧布。

Further undermining the ruble on Monday, even before the downgrade, was a burst of fighting in eastern Ukraine over the weekend, resulting in the deaths of 30 people in a rocket attack on the city of Mariupol. The fighting raised the prospects of a new round of United States and European sanctions against Russia.

週一，甚至在被降級之前，盧布就已經進一步走低，因爲上週末烏克蘭東部爆發衝突，馬裏烏波爾遭到火箭彈襲擊，導致30人死亡。此次衝突增加了美國及歐洲對俄羅斯進行新一輪制裁的可能性。