大宗商品價格驟降打擊新興市場主權評級

That commodity prices are important for emerging markets should not come as a surprise. New research from Fitch Ratings sheds light on just how important they are, however, even though some large EM nations such as China and India are net commodity importers.

大宗商品價格對新興市場很重要，這一點不應該出乎意料。然而，惠譽評級(Fitch Ratings)的新研究揭示了它們究竟有多重要，儘管一些大型的新興市場國家（如中國和印度）是大宗商品淨進口國。

“The dramatic fall in commodity prices since mid-2014 . . . has been the single most important factor behind [Fitch’s] wave of 13 EM sovereign rating downgrades in 2015 and record 18 in 2016,” said Ed Parker, head of Europe, Middle East and Africa sovereigns at the US rating agency.

“從2014年中期起，大宗商品價格戲劇性下降……成爲導致惠譽在2015年下調13個新興市場主權評級、2016年迄今已創下18個的新紀錄的最重要因素，”這家美國評級機構的歐洲、中東和非洲主權業務負責人埃德.帕克(Ed Parker)表示。

Given that commodity prices, as measured by the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity index, are up 38 per cent since their mid-January lows, the analysis suggests the future will be brighter for EMs — even if things are likely to get worse before they get better.

鑑於大宗商品價格（按標普高盛大宗商品指數(S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity index)衡量）已自1月中旬的低點回升38%，這項分析似乎表明，新興市場的未來將更加光明，即使情況在好轉之前可能變得更糟。

The Fitch analysis suggests the drop in commodity prices has led to a 20 per cent decline in the typical emerging market country’s terms of trade — the ratio of export prices to import prices — since 2014.

惠譽的分析似乎表明，自2014年以來，大宗商品價格下跌已導致典型的新興市場國家的貿易條件（出口價格與進口價格的比率）下降20%。

This deterioration has resulted in “a transfer of real income to the rest of the world”, says Mr Parker and, typically, a decline in economic growth, and current account and budget balances.

帕克表示，這種條件惡化導致“實際收入被轉移到世界其他地方”，通常還帶來經濟增長以及經常賬戶和預算平衡減弱。

“Countries in weaker starting positions [ie those without buffers such as fiscal and current account surpluses, low debt levels and accumulated assets] may have to cut spending to reduce twin deficits, exacerbating the impact of the terms of trade [reversal] on the economic cycle,” said Mr Parker.

“起點較弱的國家（即沒有財政和經常賬戶盈餘、低債務水平和累積資產作爲緩衝的國家）可能不得不削減支出以減少雙赤字，加劇貿易條件（逆轉）對經濟週期的影響，”帕克表示。

Overall, Fitch found that the terms of trade fell 19 per cent in 2014 and 2015 for the EM countries it rates, and a further 1 per cent so far this year.

總體而言，惠譽發現其評級的新興市場國家的貿易條件在2014年和2015年下降了19%，今年迄今進一步下降1%。

Middle Eastern, African and Latin American countries, alongside Russia, have seen the largest deterioration, while China and India have seen improvements in their terms of trade.

中東、非洲和拉美國家與俄羅斯出現了最大的惡化，而中國和印度的貿易條件有所改善。

These dynamics correlate highly with Fitch’s rating model. The rise and fall in the EM-wide terms of trade has been mirrored by changes in the rating agency’s sovereign credit index, which measures the average EM rating.

這些動態與惠譽的評級模型高度相關。新興市場貿易條件的上升和下降呼應了這家評級機構主權信用指數的變化，該指數衡量新興市場的平均評級。

Given that commodity prices have risen since January, this suggests the resultant improvement in the terms of trade of commodity exporters should also feed through into stronger economic growth and strengthened sovereign ratings, given the correlation between these measures. But Mr Parker foresees more gloom in the near term.

鑑於大宗商品價格自今年1月以來上漲，這似乎表明，由於這些衡量標準之間的相關性，大宗商品出口國貿易條件隨之出現的改善，也應該帶來更強勁的經濟增長和主權評級。但帕克預計在近期內會有更多壞消息。

“The full impact [of commodity price changes] can take time to feed through to credit metrics, as countries initially draw on reserves and financing options, and due to lags and informal buffers in the economy,” he said.

“大宗商品價格變化的全面影響可能需要一段時間才能反映到信用指標上，因爲各國起初都會利用儲備金和融資選項，還有就是經濟中的滯後和非正式緩衝等因素，”他說。

However, the prospects for emerging markets should begin to pick up, Mr Parker added.

然而，帕克補充說，新興市場的前景應該開始出現起色。

“If commodity prices slowly recover, this should start to feed through to stronger economic performance. The strong historical relationship between the terms of trade and EM sovereign ratings suggests the outlook should then start to brighten,” he concluded.

“如果大宗商品價格緩慢恢復，它應該開始帶來更強勁的經濟表現。貿易條件與新興市場主權評級之間的強有力歷史關係似乎表明，屆時前景應該開始明朗，”他最後總結說。