降息或難逆轉中國增長放緩趨勢

China’s surprise interest rate cut late on Friday will not reverse the trend of slower growth and tighter credit, analysts said, describing the move as being more akin to fine tuning than a shift in policy.

中國在上週五傍晚出人意料地降低了利率，但分析師認爲，此舉不會逆轉中國增長放緩和信貸收緊的趨勢，並稱此舉更類似於微調，而不是政策轉向。

Equity markets rallied both at home and overseas on news that the People’s Bank of China had lowered its benchmark deposit and lending rates by 0.25 and 0.40 percentage points respectively. But investors betting on broad-based monetary stimulus from Chinese policymakers are likely to be disappointed.

中國央行(PBoC)將基準存款利率和基準貸款利率分別降低0.25和0.40個百分點的消息，令國內外股市都爲之一振。然而，那些將籌碼押在中國決策者將推出大面積貨幣刺激舉措的投資者們，很可能要失望了。

After a series of targeted stimulus measures earlier this year that largely failed to lower real borrowing costs, the latest move shifts the dial another notch towards easing.

今年早些時候，中國推出了一系列定向刺激舉措，但這些舉措在很大程度上並未降低實際借貸成本。如今，最新舉措向着寬鬆的方向又前進了一步。

“This really isn’t a change in the direction of monetary policy, so it’s hard to give a reaction that can shake heaven and earth,” Wu Jinglian, a senior government economist who has advised Chinese presidents dating back to Deng Xiaoping, said at a conference on Saturday.

週六，資深官方經濟學家吳敬璉在一次會議上表示，最新舉措並不意味着貨幣政策方向的轉變，因此很難對經濟產生全方位影響。早在鄧小平時代，吳敬璉就已開始爲中國最高領導人提供諮詢意見。

Economists say the rate cut will help lower costs for mortgages and high-rated corporate borrowers but cannot reverse the decline in investment and factory output – key drivers of the economy – unless it is coupled with official directives to increase loan volumes.

經濟學家表示，這次降息將有助於降低抵押貸款成本及高評級企業的貸款成本。然而，如果不輔以擴大貸款規模的行政指令，這次降息可能無法逆轉投資和工廠產出這兩大關鍵經濟推動因素的下滑趨勢。

Central bank data show overall credit growth through the first 10 months of 2014 is running Rmb1.27tn ($207bn) behind last year’s pace.

央行數據顯示，2014年頭10個月，中國總體信貸增長幅度比去年減少了1.27萬億元人民幣（合2070億美元）。

Analysts have debated whether the decline is due mainly to intentional efforts by the PBoC to rein in debt, slack credit demand from corporate borrowers faced with declining sales, or risk aversion by financial institutions worried over rising bad loans.

對導致這一下降的主要原因，分析師之間還存在爭論。有人認爲，它是中國央行有意遏制債務、降低企業信貸需求的結果，因爲這些企業借款方正面臨銷售不斷下滑的窘境。還有人卻認爲，信貸增幅的下降，主要原因是金融機構因擔心壞債不斷攀升而產生避險情緒。

Whatever the reason, there is little sign that the PBoC is prepared to pressure banks to aggressively push loans out the door.

不論信貸增長趨緩的原因是什麼，沒什麼跡象表明中國央行準備強迫銀行大力放貸。

“Given the government’s stated intention to focus on long term structural issues, in terms of growth, we suspect that policies will likely remain behind the curve,” David Cui, equity strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, wrote in a note on Monday.

美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)股票策略師崔偉(David Cui)週一在一份報告中寫道：“考慮到中國政府曾表態要着力解決長期的結構性問題，我們懷疑促增長政策的出臺可能仍會落後於經濟週期。”

“The risk to this assessment is if, contrary to our expectation, the government announces more cuts and/or other major growth boosting measures reasonably soon.”

“這一評估面臨的風險是，與我們的預期相反，中國政府在足夠短的時間內公佈更多降息措施或其他推動增長的重要措施。”

The impact of the rate cut could be further softened by banks’ unwillingness to drop lending rates in line with the PBoC’s new benchmark, which is not binding on lenders.

此外，由於銀行不需強制執行基準貸款利率，如果銀行不願按新的央行基準利率降低貸款利率，可能會進一步緩衝此次降息措施的影響。

The PBoC paired its rate cut with a parallel move giving doubling lenders’ margin of flexibility to offer higher deposit rates above the official benchmark. That could leave effective deposit rates largely unchanged, as the impact of the lower benchmark is cancelled out by the wider flexibility banks have to exceed it.

在降息的同時，中國央行還推出了配套措施，將各銀行存款利率相對官方基準利率的自由上調幅度擴大了一倍。這一措施可能會讓實際存款利率在很大程度上保持不變，因爲儘管基準利率降低了，但銀行的自由上調幅度增大了。

For one-year deposits, the benchmark rate was lowered from 3 per cent to 2.75 per cent. But a 20 per cent margin above the new rate, equal to 3.3 per cent, is identical to the 10 per cent margin permitted above the previous, lower rate.

比如，對於一年期存款，基準利率從3%下調至2.75%。然而，相對2.75%利率20%的上浮會得到3.3%的利率，與此前3%利率上浮10%得到的利率相同。

With their funding costs largely unchanged, banks will have an incentive to keep loan rates high in a bid to preserve margins.

由於銀行的資金成本基本沒變，爲保證利潤率，銀行會更願意把貸款利率保持在高位。

In the initial days following the cut smaller banks have moved first to take advantage of the new freedom on deposit rates. But larger banks are likely to follow suit eventually, analysts say, meaning effective deposit rates could remain largely unchanged in spite of the lower benchmark.

降息舉措的最初幾天，規模較小的銀行會率先利用新的存款利率自由度。不過，分析師表示，規模較大的銀行最終可能也會採取同樣措施。也就是說，儘管基準利率降低了，實際存款利率可能會在很大程度上保持不變。

“Our bank adjusted its own benchmarks in line with the central bank but hasn’t issued new rules on how actual loan rates should float above or below. For now we’ll keep using the old guidelines,” said a client manager at Bank of China in Shanghai.

中國銀行(Bank of China)上海分行一位客戶經理表示：“我行依照央行基準調整了自己的基準利率，不過並未就實際貸款利率應該上浮還是下調發布新的規定。目前我們依然在執行舊的規定。”