特朗普當選與英國退歐不再是同類

The Brexit vote and the election of Donald Trump will forever be linked in history. The two events took place within a few months of each other. Both were populist revolts that appealed to similar constituencies.

英國退歐公投與唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)勝選將成爲歷史上永遠被聯繫在一起的事件。兩件事在幾個月的時間內相繼發生。兩者都代表了對於相似選民羣體有感召力的民粹主義造反。

After Mr Trump’s election, Theresa May, Britain’s prime minister, was the first foreign leader to visit the new US president. A photograph of the two leaders walking hand in hand quickly became a symbol of the closeness of Trump’s America and Brexit Britain. For mainstream politicians in Europe, “Trump and Brexit” became shorthand for the forces that they were trying to combat.

特朗普當選後，英國首相特里薩?梅(Theresa May)成爲了首位拜訪這位美國新總統的外國領導人。兩位領導人牽手而行的照片，迅速成爲特朗普治下的美國和退歐後的英國關係親密的象徵。在歐洲主流政治家看來，“特朗普和英國退歐”(Trump and Brexit)已經成爲他們一直試圖打擊的勢力的代名詞。

But, as the months have passed, it has become clear that Trump and Brexit are not, in fact, identical twins. They are more like distant relations who are growing further apart with the passage of time.

但是，隨着時間的推移，事實已經變得很清楚，特朗普當選和英國退歐實際上並非“同卵雙胞胎”。兩者更像是隨着時間流逝關係越來越疏遠的遠房親戚。

The differences between the Trump phenomenon and Brexit are a matter of both style and substance. Mr Trump violates the conventional expectations of how a US president should behave on a daily basis. Mrs May, by contrast, is scrupulously correct in her behaviour. She is about as likely to attend an EU summit in her pyjamas as to tweet that she is a “very stable genius”.

特朗普現象與英國退歐這兩件事不僅看上去不同，實質上也不同。特朗普每日都在違背對一位美國總統應如何行事的傳統預期。相比之下，梅的舉止沒有絲毫差錯。她絕不可能在Twitter上稱自己是一個“精神狀態非常穩定的天才”，就像她絕不可能穿件睡衣去參加歐盟(EU)峯會一樣。

Early in her period in office Mrs May suggested hopefully that she might get on with Mr Trump because “opposites attract”. But that pretence has now been dropped. When the president retweeted posts from a British far-right group, Mrs May was forced to condemn him. Predictably Mr Trump lashed back, although he initially directed his ire at the wrong Theresa May, lambasting a British housewife with just six Twitter followers.

在執政初期，梅樂觀地提出，自己跟特朗普或許會合得來，因爲“兩極相吸”。但是現在她已經放棄了這種幻想。當特朗普轉發英國一個極右組織的帖子時，梅不得不對他進行譴責。不出所料，特朗普回擊了，儘管他最初將怒火指向了一個錯誤的特里薩?梅賬戶——痛斥了一名在Twitter上僅有6個粉絲的英國家庭主婦。

The slapstick comedy of this incident obscured a serious political difference. In office, Mr Trump has embraced anti-Muslim rhetoric that Mrs May has carefully avoided. That difference is part of a broader divide between the radical nationalism of Mr Trump and the cautious and conventional globalism of Mrs May.

這件事的滑稽性掩蓋了一個嚴肅的政治差異。作爲總統的特朗普一直對反穆斯林言論來者不拒，而梅一直對這種言論避之不及。這種差異是特朗普激進民族主義與梅謹慎傳統的全球主義之間更廣泛分歧的一部分。

For although many Europeans and Remainers are convinced that Brexit is a nationalist spasm, and little else, the May government is determined to present it in a different light. The prime minister’s argument is that leaving the EU is an opportunity to forge a new future as “Global Britain”. She has emphasised her support for the international, rules-based, liberal order. By contrast, Mr Trump remains a proud, “America First” nationalist who is deeply suspicious of all international institutions, from the UN to the World Trade Organization.

因爲，儘管許多歐洲人和留歐派英國人相信英國退歐只是一次民族主義“抽風”，但梅政府決心賦予它一種不同的意義。梅認爲，脫離歐盟是打造一個新未來——“全球化的英國”——的機遇。她強調了自己對國際化、基於規則的自由秩序的支持。相比之下，特朗普仍是一個自以爲是、信奉“美國優先”的民族主義者，對所有國際機構——從聯合國(UN)到世界貿易組織(WTO)——都存在深深的質疑。

These very different international visions have led to policy disputes between Brexit Britain and Trump’s America. Neither side has much interest in playing up these differences. But on a succession of issues, Britain has sided with the EU rather than the US. When the Trump administration repudiated the Paris climate accord, the UK stuck with the agreement and the European consensus. The same pattern repeated itself when the White House announced its intention to move the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. And while Mr Trump is itching to rip up the Iran nuclear deal, Britain has joined the rest of the EU in supporting it.

這些截然不同的世界觀，導致了決定退歐後的英國和特朗普治下美國之間的政策分歧。雙方都不願強調這些分歧。但英國在一系列問題上都支持歐盟，而非美國。特朗普政府退出《巴黎氣候協定》時，英國堅持遵守該協定和歐洲共識。當白宮宣佈計劃將美國駐以色列大使館遷至耶路撒冷時，同樣的一幕再次上演。此外，特朗普很想撕毀伊朗核協議，而英國則站在歐盟其他國家那邊支持該協議。

Perhaps the most consequential policy division is over the WTO. The Trump administration is quietly hobbling the world trade body by blocking appointments to its court. But a functioning WTO is critical to Mrs May’s plans to make Brexit work. The UK has stressed that, if it cannot strike a new trade deal with the EU, it will fall back on WTO rules. Mr Trump’s agenda could wreck the body that Britain is relying upon as its insurance policy.

或許影響最重大的政策分歧在於如何對待WTO。特朗普政府通過阻止WTO上訴機構法官的任命，悄悄地給這一世界貿易機構使絆子。但一個正常運轉的WTO對梅的英國退歐計劃至關重要。英國強調，如果無法與歐盟達成新的貿易協議，它將轉而退守WTO規則。特朗普的議程可能會破壞這個英國賴以保底的機構。

Some of the ideologues behind Brexit remain wedded to the idea that Britain is part of an “Anglosphere” of English-speaking nations, with the US and the UK at its heart. But Britain’s foreign policy choices since the Brexit vote suggest that the UK is actually more comfortable with the Franco-German worldview than the American one. The repeated low-key clashes between the May government and the Trump administration emphasise the extent to which Britain is now “in play” as a foreign policy actor. If the Brexit negotiations come to a reasonably amicable conclusion and Mr Trump remains in the White House, post-Brexit Britain could easily end up closer to the EU than the US.

支持英國退歐的一些理論家仍堅持認爲，英國是以美英兩國爲核心的英語國家“盎格魯文化圈”的一部分。但退歐公投以來的英國外交政策選擇表明，英國實際上更願意接受法德的世界觀，而非美國的世界觀。梅政府與特朗普政府之間的多次有節制的衝突，突顯出英國如今已在多大程度上推行獨立的外交政策。如果英國退歐談判達成一個算得上友好的結果而特朗普仍坐鎮白宮，退歐後的英國可能更容易向歐盟、而非美國靠攏。

The more ardent Brexiters would argue that this is simply because the British establishment has failed to understand the populist moment. But opinion polls suggest that Mrs May’s policy decisions reflect wider sentiment in Britain. A Globescan survey last year showed that only 33 per cent of Britons believe that the US has a “mainly positive” impact on world affairs; compared with 84 per cent positive ratings for Germany and 66 per cent for France. Some 79 per cent of Brits trusted President Barack Obama’s judgment, compared with 22 per cent who trust President Trump.

更堅決的退歐派人士會辯稱，這只是因爲英國建制派未能理解這股民粹主義勢頭。但民調顯示，梅的政策決定反映了英國民衆更普遍的情緒。去年GlobeScan所做的一項調查顯示，僅33%的英國人認爲美國對世界事務的影響“主要是積極的”；相比之下，德國在這方面獲得的認可率爲84%，法國爲66%。約79%的英國人信任巴拉克?奧巴馬(Barack Obama)總統的判斷，而信任特朗普總統的只有22%。

These numbers underline the differences between Brexit Britain and Trump’s America. British political debate since the Brexit vote has been bitter, but it has been conducted in largely conventional terms. By contrast, Mr Trump’s White House increasingly feels like a deranged episode from a reality TV show. The vote for Brexit and the election of Mr Trump may have sprung from similar instincts. But they have ended up in very different places.

這些數字突顯了退歐後的英國和特朗普治下美國之間的種種不同。自退歐公投以來，英國的政治辯論一直很激烈，但在很大程度上是按照傳統方式進行的。相比之下，特朗普的白宮越來越像是一集瘋狂的真人秀節目。英國公投退歐和特朗普當選可能源自相似的本能。但它們的後續發展截然不同。