全球反恐變得更加困難 任重道遠

Jihad went global when Osama bin Laden declared war on the “far enemy” and drew other extremist groups, fighting more localised battles, to join forces with al-Qaeda. Two decades later and five years since bin Laden’s death, the tactics of terrorists are morphing on the global stage in ways that are more difficult to pre-empt and combat.

當奧薩馬•本拉登(Osama bin Laden)對“遙遠的敵人”宣戰、並吸引到其他更地方化作戰的極端主義組織與基地組織(al-Qaeda)並肩作戰時，聖戰變成了全球化的戰鬥。20年後、也就是本拉登死去5年後的今天，恐怖主義的戰術在國際舞臺上開始發生變化，使各國更難以先發制人和作戰。

Ahead of the recent Euro 2016 football matches in Nice, French security services prepared for many contingencies — including nuclear and biological attacks. What they did not, and perhaps could not, anticipate was that a young man known to police as a petty criminal but not to intelligence services, could wreak such carnage by hiring a truck and ploughing through seafront crowds. The atrocity left 84 people dead and 202 injured.

在2016年歐洲杯比賽在尼斯舉行之前，法國安保部門爲應對很多緊急事件做好了準備——其中包括應對核生化攻擊。他們沒有預見、或者說也無法預見的情況是，一名被警方認爲是輕罪犯、但並不爲情報部門所掌握的年輕人，可以憑藉租來的一輛卡車、碾過海邊的人羣，造成了如此慘烈的殺戮。此次暴行造成84人死亡，202人受傷。

The Bastille Day attack is the more shocking for the brutal simplicity of its design. It comes after a string of terrorist incidents this year across the world from Bangladesh to Belgium. Since bin Laden outlined the contours of a coming war between jihadis and the west in an interview in 1998, Islamist extremism has atomised, and spread.

法國國慶日恐襲事件因其設計上的粗暴簡單而更加令人震驚。此前，從孟加拉國到比利時等世界各國在今年發生了一系列恐怖襲擊事件。自本拉登1998年接受一次採訪時勾勒出聖戰分子與西方國家即將到來的戰爭以來，伊斯蘭極端主義迅速分化並擴散。

At the same time, terrorist groups have both splintered and reconstituted in more unpredictable forms, helped greatly by the ease with which they can network and spread propaganda on the internet. Extremists groups, as bin Laden promised, have been able to draw the superpowers on to their own terrain, and to simultaneously strike them back at home.

與此同時，大大受助於在互聯網上搞組織和宣傳之簡便，恐怖主義組織不斷分化並重組成了更加變幻莫測的形式。正如本拉登許諾的那樣，極端主義組織現在能夠把超級大國吸引到他們自己的地盤上，同時在這些大國的本土展開打擊。

This year alone some 1,200 people have been killed in attacks claimed by Isis outside the main battle theatre of its self-proclaimed caliphate. It is tempting to see this surge in terrorism worldwide as the consequence of battlefield weakness, that Isis is lashing out as it cedes territory under pressure from Russian and US-backed forces in Syria and Iraq. The reality is probably far more complex.

僅在今年，就已有約1200人在“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯蘭國”(ISIS)聲稱負責、發生在其自稱的哈里發國主戰場之外的襲擊事件中遇難。人們很容易看出，在恐怖組織於戰場受挫的同時，全球範圍內恐怖襲擊事件在激增——在俄羅斯和美國支持的武裝力量的壓力下，ISIS在敘利亞和伊拉克不斷喪失地盤的同時，在世界各地猛烈發動恐怖襲擊。現實情況可能複雜得多。

By comparison with al-Qaeda, Isis, which has claimed the majority of recent attacks, is multi-dimensional. It owes its strength to the merging of the millenarian ideals of extremist Islam and the Sunni supremacist remnants of the Iraqi Ba’athist state. The expertise and know-how of former Iraqi officers are grafted to a death cult that has distinguished itself by being more flexible in using conventional and unconventional tactics.

與基地組織相比，宣稱對近來大多數恐怖襲擊事件負責的ISIS更具多維性。它把其力量壯大歸功於對伊斯蘭極端主義的千禧理想和伊拉克復興社會黨(Ba'athist)殘餘的遜尼派至上主義者的結合。伊拉克前官員的專業知識和技能被移植到一種死亡崇拜上，不同之處在於後者在利用常規和非常規戰術方面更加靈活。

The conflict in the Middle East is metastasising, as Isis fighters, like their al-Qaeda precursors did in the 1990s, return home. More difficult still for intelligence agencies to track are the individuals inspired by terrorist organisations but without operational connections to the base — the lone wolves.

隨着ISIS的戰士回到本土（就像其基地組織先驅在上世紀90年代一樣），中東衝突正在發生變化。對於情報機構來說，追蹤受恐怖主義組織啓發、但與基地沒有操作聯繫的個人——即“孤狼”——變得更加困難。

Intelligence agencies moulded in the cold war were once wrongfooted by al-Qaeda spectaculars. Technology since has helped groups like Isis quickly adapt to surveillance. Profiling their recruits has become increasingly difficult. Today’s terrorists may never have been to the mosque. They are as likely to be self-radicalised on social media. Terrorist groups are exploiting poisonous domestic political terrain, in France or Bangladesh, to advance their global agenda with greater ease.

在冷戰時期鍛造出來的情報機構，一度被基地組織的“壯舉”打亂了陣腳。自那之後，技術幫助ISIS等組織迅速適應了監控。對他們招募的戰士進行特點分析變得愈發困難。如今的恐怖分子可能從未進過清真寺。他們很可能是在社交媒體上完成自我激進化。恐怖組織正在利用國內不利的政治形勢（比如法國和孟加拉國）來更輕鬆地推進他們的全球議程。

Against this hydra-headed monster no strategy can be fail-safe. But it can be calibrated to improve security, among other things through intelligence sharing, while steadily addressing the grievances that feed into the extremes. Heavy-handed tactics, or worse the militaristic demagoguery offered by the far right, will serve the terrorist agenda. The threat may be evolving. But this remains as much a battle of ideas as a security issue, as it was when bin Laden first set out his goals.

對付這隻多頭怪獸，沒有任何策略是絕對安全的。但是可以調整策略來提高安全性，比如通過情報共享，同時解決滋生極端主義的國內不滿情緒。粗暴的策略、甚至更糟的由極右翼勢力煽動的窮兵黷武，將推進恐怖主義的議程。威脅可能正在不斷加深。但是，這場戰爭仍然既是安全問題、也是理念之戰，正如當初本拉登首次制定出他的目標時一樣。