奧蘭多槍擊案兇手或爲獨狼槍手
Reeling from the worst attack on American soil since 9/11, the authorities believe at this stage that Omar Mateen was likely a deranged lone gunman who took the Isis name as a badge rather than a trained operative of the group.
在本土遭受自“9•11”事件以來最嚴重的恐怖襲擊後，美國當局目前相信，奧馬爾•馬丁(Omar Mateen)可能是一名瘋狂的“獨狼”槍手，雖然他打着“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯蘭國”(ISIS)的旗號，但他並非該組織接受過相關培訓的祕密人員。
Initial indications suggest that Mr Mateen, who killed 49 at a nightclub in Orlando on Saturday , falls into a distinctive pattern of recent American jihadi violence, a US citizen who operates as a lone wolf and who has little, if any, direct link to a terrorist organisation.
上週日凌晨，馬丁在奧蘭多一家夜總會裏殺死了49人。最初跡象表明，馬丁符合最近美國聖戰暴力活動的獨特模式，即一名美國公民像“獨狼”一樣行動，與恐怖組織幾乎沒有直接聯繫。
If that conclusion is confirmed by an investigation that is still in its early stages, the Orlando shootings will highlight the different challenge that law enforcement faces in the US compared with Europe, which is battling against organised terrorist cells.
如果這一結論被目前仍處於早期階段的調查證實，奧蘭多槍擊案將突顯出美國執法部門面臨的與歐洲不同的挑戰。歐洲執法部門正在打擊有組織的恐怖小組。
For all their improved tradecraft and encryption, Isis cells in the west still have to communicate and co-ordinate, sometimes leaving clues. Lone wolves, by contrast, move in near-total silence: any evidence they leave tends to make sense only once their work is done.
儘管諜報和加密技術有所提高，但西方的ISIS恐怖小組仍不得不彼此交流和合作，有時會留下線索。相比之下，“獨狼”近乎無跡可循。他們留下的一切蛛絲馬跡往往在他們得手後才爲人察覺。
“The most difficult type [of attacks] are the self-radicalised, lone wolves,” says Frances Townsend, former homeland security adviser to President George W Bush. “It is easier to identify and intercept attacks where a terrorist group has direct operational control than it is to intercept self-radicalisation.”
曾擔任美國前總統小布什(George W. Bush)國土安全顧問的弗朗西絲•湯森(Frances Townsend)表示：“最難發現的（襲擊）類型是自我激進化的獨狼行動。發現並攔截恐怖組織直接操作控制的恐怖襲擊，要比攔截自我激進化的行動容易。”
Although the risk of Isis attacks in the US is thought to be considerably lower than in western Europe, the US authorities have reported a surge in jihadist activities over the past two years. James Comey, director of the FBI, said last month that there were 1,000 open investigations into online recruitment by Isis and other terrorist organisations. According to Lorenzo Vidino and Seamus Hughes at George Washington University, the US authorities arrested 209 individuals on terrorism-related charges from 2011 to 2012, but have arrested 71 for links to Isis since 2014.
儘管在美國發生ISIS襲擊的風險被認爲顯著低於西歐國家，但美國當局過去兩年報告的聖戰活動數量大幅上升。美國聯邦調查局(FBI)局長詹姆斯•科米(James Comey)上月表示，目前有1000起針對ISIS和其他恐怖組織在線招募活動的開放調查。喬治華盛頓大學(George Washington University)的洛倫佐•維迪諾(Lorenzo Vidino)和謝默斯•休斯(Seamus Hughes)表示，美國當局在2011年至2012年間逮捕了209名恐怖活動嫌疑人，但自2014年以來逮捕了71名與ISIS有關聯的嫌疑人。
A US official said yesterday that there were no indications yet of direct links between Mr Mateen and Isis, however the FBI is only starting to investigate his recent history, including two visits for religious pilgrimage to Saudi Arabia in 2011 and 2012.
一位美國官員昨日表示，迄今還沒有跡象表明馬丁與ISIS存在直接聯繫，然而FBI只是剛開始調查他的近期歷史，包括在2011年和2012年兩次前往沙特阿拉伯朝聖。
From the information released so far, Mr Mateen appears to follow a mould of jihadi attacks seen since 9/11. Like Nidal Hasan, who killed 13 at Fort Hood in 2009, and Syed Farook, one of the San Bernardino shooters, he was a US citizen and at 29, no longer a young firebrand.
從迄今發佈的信息看，馬丁似乎遵循自“9•11”事件以來的聖戰襲擊模式。與2009年在得克薩斯州胡德堡(Fort Hood)殺死13人的尼達爾•哈桑(Nidal Hasan)和聖貝納迪諾(San Bernardino)槍擊案兇手賽義德•法魯克(Syed Farook)一樣，馬丁是美國公民，29歲，不再是年輕的狂熱分子。
Analysts say he fits into a pattern of troubled or marginal individuals being attracted by Isis. Mr Mateen’s ex-wife has suggested he was mentally unstable. “A few months after we were married, I saw his instability, and I saw that he was bipolar and he would get mad out of nowhere,” she told CNN. In January, the Justice Department said it had arrested a man in Rochester, New York who had been planning to place a bomb in a restaurant on New Year’s Eve and who was described as a “panhandler”.
分析人士表示，他符合被ISIS吸引的精神混亂者或邊緣人的特點。馬丁前妻表示，他的精神狀態不穩定。她向美國有線新聞網(CNN)表示：“在我們結婚幾個月後，我發現他精神狀態不穩定，情緒兩極化，會莫名其妙地發狂。”今年1月，美國司法部表示，在紐約羅切斯特(Rochester)逮捕了一名計劃在新年前夜在一家餐館放置炸彈的男子，該男子被形容爲“乞丐”。
For some of these individuals, Isis has become a “a banner, a rallying cry”, said Michael Weiss at the Atlantic Council in Washington. “Isis is seen as being a thriving, world-historical movement, that offers violence and an anti-western worldview.”
華盛頓大西洋理事會(Atlantic Council)的邁克爾•韋斯(Michael Weiss)表示，對某些此類人來說，ISIS已成爲“一面旗幟、一個戰鬥口號”，“他們視ISIS爲一場蓬勃發展、具有世界歷史意義的運動，提供了暴力和反西方的世界觀”。
Unfortunately for the US authorities, Mr Mateen also ticks another box: previous investigation by the FBI. Like Mr Hasan and Tamerlan Tsarnaev, the older brother in the Boston bombing in 2013, he was questioned by the FBI in 2013 and 2014, but no action was taken.
對美國當局而言遺憾的是，馬丁還符合另一點：他之前接受過FBI的調查。與哈桑和2013年波士頓爆炸案兩名兄弟兇手中的哥哥塔梅爾蘭•察爾納耶夫(Tamerlan Tsarnaev)一樣，馬丁曾在2013年和2014年接受過FBI的詢問，但FBI當時沒有采取任何行動。
By contrast, several of the young attackers in Paris and Brussels had travelled to Syria for training and direction. Returning to Europe, they joined other homegrown jihadis in a mega-cell of between 30 and 90 members.
相比之下，巴黎和布魯塞爾的數名年輕襲擊者曾到敘利亞接受培訓和指導。在返回歐洲後，他們加入了有30至90名成員的其他本土聖戰組織。
Claude Moniquet, a former French spy and co-founder of the European Strategic Intelligence and Security Centre, said there was “clearly a different strategy for Isis in continental Europe on the one hand and in the US and UK on the other”. In Britain and the US, “they advise their followers not to come to Syria and Iraq but to . . . carry out individual strikes in their country”.
前法國間諜、歐洲戰略情報與安全中心(European Strategic Intelligence and Security Centre)聯合創始人克洛德•莫尼凱(Claude Moniquet)表示，“ISIS在歐洲大陸和在美英的戰略顯然不同”。在英國和美國，“他們建議追隨者不要去敘利亞和伊拉克，而是……在本國實施個人襲擊活動”。
A key reason, he says, is that tighter border security means it is more difficult to travel from the US and UK to Syria than from continental Europe. The leader of the Paris attacks, Abdelhamid Abaaoud, for example, was able to repeatedly travel to Belgium before the killings, despite being the subject of an international manhunt.
他說，一個關鍵原因是，更爲嚴厲的邊境安全控制意味着從美英到敘利亞比從歐洲大陸到敘利亞更爲困難。例如，巴黎恐怖襲擊事件頭目阿卜杜勒-哈米德•阿巴伍德(Abdelhamid Abaaoud)能夠在襲擊前多次前往比利時，儘管他受到國際通緝。
Alexander Ritzmann, policy adviser at the European Foundation for Democracy, says it is becoming increasingly hard to see the line between an attack directed by Isis and one where the att-acker associates with Isis. The question, he says, is whether Isis recruits “lone wolves,” or do they recruit themselves. “Giving it the brand of the Islamic state makes you famous compared with just being whatever crazy shooter,” he notes.
歐洲民主基金會(European Foundation for Democracy)政策顧問亞歷山大•裏茨曼(Alexander Ritzmann)表示，現在越來越難以區分ISIS下令展開的襲擊和與ISIS有關聯的襲擊者發起的襲擊。他說，問題在於到底是ISIS招募了“獨狼”，還是“獨狼”自我招募。他指出：“與只是某位瘋狂的槍手相比，貼上ISIS的標籤會讓你出名。”
