特朗普挑戰強勢美元政策
Donald Trump has drawn scorn from economists for his threats to launch a trade war with China and to renegotiate the terms of US sovereign debt. Less noticed, however, have been the Republican presidential candidate’s apparent threats to dismantle another decades-old American orthodoxy: the “strong dollar” policy.
因威脅要對中國發動貿易戰並重新談判美國主權債務條款，唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)招來了經濟學家的嘲諷。然而，很少有人注意到，這位共和黨總統候選人正在直白地威脅要廢除美國另一項延續數十年之久的正統做法——“強勢美元”政策。
The property developer has been consistent in recent months in warning against a strong exchange rate, even though the US has — notionally at least — adhered to a “strong dollar” policy since the 1990s.
近幾個月來，這位地產開發商一直在告誡人們提防美元的強勢匯率，儘管美國（至少在理論上）自上世紀90年代一直堅守“強勢美元”政策。
In August last year Mr Trump declared the dollar was “hurting” the US and leading to “huge disadvantages” for companies’ competitiveness. “It sounds good to say ‘we have a strong dollar’. But that’s about where it stops,” he told one interviewer.
去年8月，特朗普曾宣稱，美元正在“傷害”美國，導致美國企業的競爭力面臨“巨大劣勢”。他對一名採訪他的記者表示：“‘我們有強勢美元’說起來好聽。但是也就是說起來好聽而已。”
Mr Trump doubled down on that message earlier this month, saying that while he loved the concept of a strong dollar, it risked causing havoc for the US economy while delighting China, which he and others accuse of engaging in years of currency manipulation aimed at gaining a competitive advantage over American manufacturers.
本月早些時候，特朗普進一步擡高論調，宣稱雖然他喜歡強勢美元的概念，但它有可能對美國經濟造成嚴重破壞，又正中中國下懷。特朗普等人指責中國多年來一直在操縱匯率，目標是獲得相對美國製造商的競爭優勢。
To some in the Washington economic policy establishment this is dangerous talk.
在華盛頓經濟政策制定圈的某些人士看來，這種言論是危險的。
“I think if Donald Trump is elected president we should very much expect that his administration would use exchange rate policy to try and get a smaller trade deficit,” said Robert Kahn, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who served as a senior official at the US Treasury under then treasury secretary Robert Rubin.
美國對外關係委員會(Council on Foreign Relations)高級研究員、曾在羅伯特•魯賓(Robert Rubin)擔任財長期間任財政部高級官員的羅伯特•卡恩(Robert Kahn)說：“我認爲，如果唐納德•特朗普當選總統，我們應當做好這樣的心理準備，特朗普政府會利用匯率政策，設法縮小貿易赤字。”
Such a policy would likely lead to retaliation by trading partners, argued Mr Kahn, potentially resulting in lower growth, weaker trade and a weaker dollar. It could also undermine the status of the dollar as a global reserve currency.
卡恩表示，此類政策可能招致貿易伙伴的報復，有可能導致增長放緩、貿易減弱、美元走軟。這樣做還可能削弱美元作爲全球儲備貨幣的地位。
Ted Truman, a fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and former head of the Federal Reserve’s international finance division, said if the words become a key pillar of Mr Trump’s campaign, they could start to impact financial markets. “The best thing to do is say nothing at all,” he said.
彼得森國際經濟研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)研究員、美聯儲(Fed)國際金融部門前負責人特德•杜魯門(Ted Truman)表示，這些言論如果成爲特朗普競選運動的重要綱領，它們或將影響金融市場。“最好的辦法是什麼都不說，”他說。
US presidents have generally avoided commentary on the dollar or repeated variations of the phrase first coined by Mr Rubin in 1995 that “a strong dollar is in the interest of the United States”. The main reason is the view that it is counterproductive to try to fine-tune currency policy by attempting to talk up or down the value of dollar.
美國曆屆總統通常避免對美元發表評論，或者以不同形式重複魯賓於1995年首創的說法——“強勢美元符合美國的利益”。主要原因在於，有觀點認爲，試圖通過言語力挺或打壓美元匯率，以實現匯率政策優化微調，其結果只會適得其反。
Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, said there had been broad continuity in the US executive branch’s currency strategy through the Clinton, Bush and Obama regimes. “Trump could change that,” he added.
布朗兄弟哈里曼銀行(Brown Brothers Harriman)全球外匯策略主管馬克•錢德勒(Marc Chandler)表示，在克林頓(Clinton)、小布什(Bush)以及奧巴馬(Obama)當政期間，美國行政分支的匯率戰略一直基本保持連貫。“特朗普可能改變這種狀況，”他補充道。
Asked on Friday about Mr Trump’s comments on the dollar, Jack Lew, the treasury secretary, deployed his mantra that the strong dollar was a reflection of the US’s relative strength. “If other countries move towards competitive devaluation it will start a chain reaction,” he said at a Washington breakfast. “Pretty soon you are in a battle over shares of a shrinking global pie.”
上週五，在被問及如何看待特朗普關於美元的言論時，美國財長傑克•盧(Jack Lew)重申了自己的一貫看法——強勢美元是美國相對實力的反映。“如果其他國家走向競爭性貶值，將導致連鎖反應，”他在華盛頓的一場早餐會上說，“要不了多久，我們就會陷入爲從越來越小的全球‘蛋糕’中搶奪更大份額的爭鬥。”
Yet in reality, US officials’ strong dollar rhetoric has tended to accompany private concerns when a rising currency has been hurting US exporters. That has certainly been the case in recent years, with the dollar’s gains playing a role in inhibiting the Fed from increasing rates more rapidly.
然而，在現實中，當美元升值一直在損害美國出口商時，美國官員支持強勢美元的言論往往伴隨着私營部門的擔憂。近年來，面對美元升值對美聯儲更迅速加息的阻礙作用，情況無疑就是如此。
In March 2015 Janet Yellen, the Fed chair, said the currency’s level reflected in part the strength of the US economy, but added that it was one reason for a weakening in export growth, which she expected to exert a “notable drag” on the economy. In March this year the Fed pared back its forecasts for rate increases, citing global economic and financial risks — central to which is a surging dollar.
2015年3月，美聯儲主席珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)表示，美元匯率水平部分地反映了美國的經濟實力，但她補充稱，它是出口負增長的原因之一，她預計出口狀況將對經濟產生“明顯拖累”。今年3月，美聯儲以全球經濟及金融風險（核心原因是美元大幅升值）爲由，調低了預測的加息力度。
The Fed was also accused of setting off an international currency war in the wake of the 2008 crisis after it used quantitative easing to increase the monetary supply, which had the effect of weakening the dollar.
美聯儲還被指在2008年金融危機爆發後引發了一場國際貨幣戰，當時它利用量化寬鬆政策增加貨幣供應，實際上導致了美元貶值。
Some economists are less critical of Mr Trump’s views on the dollar. “Mr. Trump’s repudiation of the strong dollar mantra certainly elevates economic realism over empty rhetoric,” said Eswar Prasad, an economist and author of “The Dollar Trap”, a book about the greenback’s rise as a global reserve currency.
對特朗普關於美元的看法，有些經濟學家態度較爲溫和。經濟學家、《美元陷阱》(The Dollar Trap)一書作者埃斯瓦爾•普拉薩德(Eswar Prasad)說：“特朗普對強勢美元政策的駁斥，無疑堅持了經濟現實主義，摒棄了空洞的言辭。”《美元陷阱》講述了美元崛起成爲全球儲備貨幣的歷程。
“His symbolic delinking of dollar strength from US economic strength could have the salutary effect of liberating future presidential candidates and Treasury secretaries from having to make ritualistic commitments to a strong dollar”.
“他將美元的堅挺程度與美國經濟實力脫鉤的標誌性舉動，或許能夠起到一個有益作用，即幫助未來的總統候選人及財長擺脫不得不力挺強勢美元的慣例。”
