爲印尼敲響恐怖主義警鐘 Indonesia on alert over lure of Isis
Abu Bakar Ba’asyir, Indonesia's best-known Islamist cleric, pledged allegiance to Isis from his jail cell last year
上圖說明：去年，印尼最知名的伊斯蘭教士阿布巴卡爾巴希爾在獄中宣誓效忠ISIS
A large gang of men, dressed in camouflage and wielding heavy machine guns, smile at the camera. One waves a black flag. Another chants, “let us begin” — in Indonesian.
一大羣身穿迷彩服、手拿重型武器的男人在攝像機前微笑。其中一人揮舞着一面黑色旗幟，另一人用印尼語高唱“讓我們開始吧”。
The footage that emerged this week of militants thought to be fighting in Syria for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, also known as Isis, has shocked Southeast Asian security analysts, who have long played down fears of Indonesians being drawn to join the militant group in its self-declared caliphate.
近日出現的這段影像震驚了東南亞安全分析人士。據信，畫面中的這些武裝分子準備赴敘利亞爲“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯蘭國”(ISIS)作戰。長期以來，分析人士一直淡化一種擔憂，即印尼人會被拉入這個自封的哈里發國的武裝組織。
“If this is one unit, in one city … then it may be higher than I thought,” says Sidney Jones, director of the Jakarta-based Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict. “It wouldn’t take more than two or three of them to come back and get a little unit into shape to do something more dangerous than we have had in the past 10 years.”
“如果一個城市一個小組織的話……那麼危險可能比我過去想象的要高，”雅加達衝突政策分析研究所(Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict)主任西德尼瓊斯(Sidney Jones)表示，“只需要兩三個人回來，就可以建立一個小組織，做出一些比我們在過去10年經歷的還要危險的事情。”
The video comes just as Indonesia was already beginning to question the extent to which militant ideology had spread in the country.
這段視頻出現之時，印尼已開始質疑激進理念在該國的蔓延程度。
Last week a dossier from the Australian Federal Police was leaked to the media alleging that two former commercial pilots had been posting pro-Isis material on social media and interacting with Indonesian fighters thought to have fled to the Middle East. Meanwhile, police are investigating an explosion last week in one of Jakarta’s major shopping malls, which they suspect was linked to Isis.
近日，澳大利亞聯邦警察局(Australian Federal Police)的一份材料被泄露給媒體，文件稱，兩位前商業飛行員在社交媒體上發佈支持ISIS的資料，並與據信已逃往中東的印尼武裝分子互動。同時，印尼警方正在調查上上週發生在雅加達一大型購物中心的爆炸案，警方懷疑此事與ISIS有關。
While President Joko Widodo is preoccupied with slowing economic growth and political infighting, analysts say the extremist threat in the world’s largest Muslim-majority nation has been growing rapidly in the past year, since the country’s best known radical cleric, Abu Bakar Ba’asyir, swore allegiance to Isis from a high-security prison on Nusa Kambangan island, south of Java.
印尼總統佐科維多多(Joko Widodo)正忙於應對經濟增速放緩以及政治內鬥的問題，分析人士表示，過去一年，自印尼最知名的激進傳教士阿布巴卡爾巴希爾(Abu Bakar Ba’asyir，見上圖)在位於爪哇南部努沙島戒備森嚴的監獄發誓效忠ISIS以來，在這個全球最大的穆斯林佔多數的國家，極端主義威脅迅速加大。
The previous government responded to rising support for Isis by formally banning the group and increasing monitoring of those travelling to Turkey and other countries that form a gateway to the Syrian conflict
面對國內對ISIS的支持升溫，上屆政府的迴應是，正式禁止ISIS，同時加大對去往土耳其和其他國家的人員的監控，這些國家是參與敘利亞衝突的入口。
But Mr Widodo, a former small-town mayor with scant experience in security and foreign policy, has done little to crack down further.
但前小城市市長維多多缺乏安全和外交政策方面的經驗，他幾乎沒有採取措施展開進一步打擊。
Ms Jones estimates there are now more than 300 Indonesians fighting with Isis in the Middle East, raising concerns that returning jihadis could revive extremist cells back home — just as veterans of the Afghan war in the 1980s formed the al-Qaeda-sponsored Jemaah Islamiyah network behind a string of high-profile terrorist attacks across the region more than a decade ago.
瓊斯估計，現在有超過300名印尼人在中東與ISIS共同作戰，這讓外界擔心，這些聖戰者們回國後可能會令本國的極端主義組織復活，就像10多年前，參加過上世紀80年代阿富汗戰爭的老兵，組成得到基地組織(al-Qaeda)支持的伊斯蘭祈禱團(Jemaah Islamiyah)，在該地區發動了一系列引人注目的恐怖主義襲擊。
Achmad Sukarsono, an analyst at the Eurasia Group, warns against underestimating the threat “because if a few Afghan veterans can create JI, what happens if 500 or more Indonesians come back from the Middle East theatre and feel they need to do something in Indonesia?”
歐亞集團(Eurasia Group)分析師艾哈邁德蘇卡索諾(Achmad Sukarsono)警告不要低估這種威脅，“因爲如果幾個阿富汗老兵可以組成伊斯蘭祈禱團，那麼500名或更多從中東戰場回國的印尼人，要是認爲他們有必要在印尼做些事情，會發生什麼？”
Analysts say Mr Widodo is too focused on other matters.
分析人士表示，維多多過於關注其他事務。
“The whole Islamic issue doesn’t figure that high on his priority list,” says Michael Buehler, a lecturer at London’s School of Oriental and African Studies. “He has so many problems just basically surviving politically.”
“整個伊斯蘭問題沒有列在他的優先任務清單的前列，”倫敦大學亞非學院(School of Oriental and African Studies)講師邁克爾比勒(Michael Buehler)表示，“他剛剛勉強在政治上存活下來，面臨很多問題。”
Stronger laws are required to enforce Indonesia’s ban on Isis, according to the Institute for Policy Analysis and Conflict, as travelling overseas for military training is not illegal in Indonesia, while police struggle to curb the hate speech of radical preachers in a country where religious groups still wield considerable power.
衝突政策分析研究所稱，印尼必須制定更強硬法律來執行印尼對ISIS的禁令，因爲在印尼，赴海外參加軍事培訓並不非法，同時在這個宗教組織仍有着巨大影響力的國家，警方很難限制激進傳教士的仇恨演講。
In particular, the think-tank highlights the need for security forces to identify radical mosques, and for simple intervention in prisons, where jihadi inmates have held well publicised oath-taking ceremonies and regularly use mobile phones.
該智庫尤其強調，必須讓安全部門查出激進的清真寺，並對監獄進行徹底干預，現在聖戰分子囚犯在監獄裏的宣誓儀式被大肆宣傳，他們還經常在獄中使用手機。
“There is an information system that goes through the prisons,” explains Ms Jones. “People who want to go to Syria can go and visit someone in a maximum-security prison, get the contacts for one of his friends on the outside … and find a way of getting there.”
“整個監獄上下有一個信息體系，”瓊斯解釋稱，“想去敘利亞的人可以去看望某個在安全級別最高的監獄中囚禁的人，取得他在監獄外面的一位朋友的聯繫方式……然後設法抵達那裏。”
Yet recent inaction may come down to widespread belief that the threat of terrorism in Indonesia has subsided in the past 15 years, with no major incident since nine people were killed in suicide bombings at major hotels in Jakarta six years ago.
然而政府最近的不作爲可能要歸因於人們普遍認爲，過去15年，印尼的恐怖主義威脅已消退，自6年前雅加達大型酒店內的自殺式爆炸導致9人死亡以來，該國沒有出現重大事件。
Indonesia’s militant groups had been left splintered since the country’s US-funded counter-terrorism police cracked down on Jemaah Islamiyah after more than 200 people were killed in the bombing of a Bali nightclub in 2002. And the country ranked just 31st of 124 countries in the Global Terrorism Index published by the Institute of Economics and Peace last year, just below the US and above Israel.
2002年，有200多人在巴厘島一夜總會爆炸案中喪生，之後由美國資助的印尼反恐警察部隊對伊斯蘭祈禱團進行了打擊。自那以來，印尼的激進組織一直處於四分五裂的狀態。去年，在經濟與和平研究所(Institute of Economics and Peace)公佈的全球恐怖主義指數(Global Terrorism Index)排行榜上，印尼在124個國家中名列第31位，排在美國之後，以色列之前。
Though returning jihadis could revive extremist cells in the country, Azyumardi Azra, a leading moderate thinker, claims Indonesian Muslims are largely tolerant and find the Wahhabi fundamentalism exported from the Middle East “too dry, too pure, too primitive, too Spartan”.
著名溫和派思想家艾祖瑪迪阿茲拉教授(Prof Azyumardi Azra)聲稱，儘管回國的聖戰分子可能會讓該國的極端主義組織復活，但印尼的穆斯林基本上是寬容的，他們認爲從中東輸出的瓦哈比(Wahhabi)原教旨主義“太枯燥、太純粹、太原始而且太清苦”。
“We are worried,” he says. “But we are not scared.”
“我們很擔心，”他表示，“但我們不害怕。”
However, Eurasia Group’s Mr Sukarno says that to the moderate nature of the majority should not lead to complacency.
然而，歐亞集團的蘇卡索諾表示，大多數人的本性溫和不應導致掉以輕心。
“In general the Muslim community in Indonesia is a lot more moderate than in the Middle East — but you don’t need a community to be radicalised,” he says. “You need a very few people.”
他表示：“總的來說，印尼的穆斯林比中東溫和得多，但不需要整個穆斯林社會都變得激進，只要很少一部分人變得激進（就很危險）。”
