美股投資總結 盛世末路

As we get closer to relegating 2014 to the history books, your local stock market guru most likely couldn’t be happier to see those books slammed shut.

2014年即將成爲歷史，各路股市專家也終於可以鬆一口氣了。

It’s been one of the worst years for investment decision-making on record, almost across the board. No strategy worked consistently, save for the type of shareholder activism that only a handful of Wall Street’s billionaire titans are able to engage in.

從投資決策角度來看，2014年是有史以來最糟糕的年景之一，幾乎可以說是全盤皆輸。除了少數華爾街億萬富豪才玩得起的“股東積極主義”維權策略還算奏效外，沒有哪種投資策略在這一年裏始終靈光。

For almost everyone else, it was a year of frustration against a backdrop of better-than-average returns for the most popular index in the land.

對於更多的普通投資者而言，在標普500指數回報高於歷史平均值的大背景下，2014年是充滿挫折的一年。

With a bit of help from Charles Dickens, let’s take a look back at the year in which almost nothing worked:

我們不妨借用一些狄更斯的名句，來回顧下幾乎各種戰略都失靈的2014年：

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…

這是最好的時代，這是最壞的時代……

The S&P 500’s total return of 14% this year was 40% higher than its 25-year average annual gain. Wall Street’s chief strategists spent much of the last 12 months revising their targets higher from behind. The index printed over 50 all-time record closes, with nearly all investment management professionals racing to at least pull even. A few characteristics made the U.S. stock market particularly difficult to keep up with this year.

今年，標普500指數的總回報率爲14%，比該指數25年期平均年化收益率高出40％。過去12個月，華爾街的首席戰略師們一直在上調其目標值。標普500指數出現了50多次創紀錄的收盤，幾乎所有專業投資管理人士都卯足了勁，至少要跑平該指數。但有些因素讓美股投資者要獲得高於基準股指的收益，在今年尤爲困難。

It was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness…

這是智慧的時代，也是愚蠢的時代……

An odd assortment of S&P sectors led the market higher this year, with some strange bedfellows atop the leaderboard. Even if a manager had foreseen that the healthcare sector would gain 27% this year, would they have guessed that utilities would be in the No. 2 slot, with gains of 23%? Unlikely.

今年領跑美國股市的標普500公司的行業組合有些奇特，出現了一些令人意想不到的黑馬。就算基金經理預見到了醫療保健行業今年將上漲27％，難道他們也能猜到公用事業行業將位列第二，上漲23％？不大可能。

Given that every single Wall Street economist had called for higher rates at the start of this year and 67 of 67 economists surveyed by Bloomberg concurred, the rate-sensitive utilities industry would have been the last sector a rational person would want to overweight. Bets on the financial sector were slow to pay off while wagers on “cheap” energy stocks demolished portfolio performance in the third and fourth quarters, just as they had elevated it during the first and second.

今年年初，所有華爾街經濟學家都呼籲提高利率，彭博社就這個問題調查了67位經濟學家的意見，他們全票贊同，有鑑於此，任何一個有理性的人都不會想要增持對利率敏感的公用事業股。把賭注押在金融股上的投資者，回報進展緩慢；而瞅準了“低價”能源股的投資者，投資組合業績在第一和第二季度曾因此推高，卻在第三和第四季度被大拖後腿，可謂“成也蕭何，敗也蕭何”。

It was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity…

這是信仰的時代，也是懷疑的時代……

Rounding out the top-performing sectors of 2014 was an unlikely pair: tech (+16%) and consumer staples (+13.2%)—the most aggressive and most defensive areas of the market, running side-by-side toward the finish line, with confounded spectators struggling to concoct a narrative for this. Why would the least cyclical sectors—healthcare, staples and utilities—lead the markets in a year in which unemployment plummeted and GDP growth gained momentum? Much to the chagrin of the pundit class, sometimes there are no satisfying answers. To quote Kurt Vonnegut:

另外兩個在2014年表現上佳的行業可謂風馬牛不相及：高科技（上漲16％）和必需消費品（上漲13.2％）。市場上最激進與最保守的兩大投資領域前後腳撞線，留下困惑的旁觀者們不知該如何解釋這一現象。2014年，美國失業率大幅下降，GDP呈增長勢頭，爲何領跑市場的卻是醫療保健、必需消費品、公用事業等週期性最不明顯的行業？令專家們懊惱的是，有些時候就是沒有令人滿意的答案。美國作家庫爾特o馮內古特曾寫道：

Tiger got to hunt, bird got to fly;

老虎要獵食，鳥兒要飛翔；

Man got to sit and wonder ‘why, why, why?’

人類想知道“這是爲什麼？”

Tiger got to sleep, bird got to land;

老虎要入眠，鳥兒要降落；

Man got to tell himself he understand.

人不得不告慰自己，原來如此。

If you thought that getting sector over- and under-weights correct at the outset proved difficult, switching between them throughout the year was nearly impossible. A quantitative analyst from Nomura Securities explained to Barron’s in November that “industry leadership has been reversing from month-to-month at a rate unseen in decades of stock-market history. ‘Even if you’re picking the right stocks in a sector,’ he says, ‘things are moving around so much that your performance doesn’t persist.’”

如果你認爲一開始準確判斷應增持和減持哪些行業的股票是件難事，在年內不斷調整投資組合更是難上加難。11月，野村證券一位定量分析師向《巴倫週刊》表示：“行業領軍者每個月都在變換，其變化速度之快，在股市數十年未見。即便你選對了某行業的個股，由於市場環境瞬息萬變，業績也根本無法持續。”

It was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness…

這是光明的季節，也是黑暗的季節……

Getting sector calls right was the least of any investor’s problems this year because, outside of the brilliance of U.S. stock gains, the lights were off around the world.

對投資者而言，今年對行業的準確判斷還只是個小問題，因爲除了美股，今年全球的投資好選擇不多。

With both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq returning over 14% while the Dow and MidCap 400 each kicking in close to 10%, you would assume that passive investors would have an awful lot to celebrate this year. And indeed, they would have, if it weren’t for those pesky overseas stocks that did nothing but drag on the performance of any diversified portfolio.

鑑於標普500和納斯達克指數都回升了14％以上，道瓊斯和標普400中型股指數也都回升了近10％，你可能會認爲今年被動投資者應該收穫頗豐。確實，要不是那些惱人的海外股業績不佳，大拖多元化投資組合的後腿，被動投資者原本應該值得慶祝。

With the majority of professional advisors (myself included) preaching the benefits of global diversification to their clients, 2014 looks more like a draw than an outright victory in the harsh light of December’s low winter sun. Consider the fact that, through last week, the MSCI World Index gained just 2% on the year, with nearly 5% drops for both the MSCI Emerging Markets index and the EAFE index of developed markets outside of the United States. Ironically, the single best-performing foreign market in the world, the Shanghai Composite of mainland Chinese equities (up 45%) is the only one that U.S. investors could not actually put their money into.

大多數專業顧問（包括我在內）都會對其客戶大力鼓吹全球化多元投資組合的好處，然而，在12月看來，殘酷的現實是2014年更像是個平局，而非大獲全勝。事實上，上週摩根士丹利資本國際全球指數同比僅上漲了2％，而摩根士丹利資本新興市場指數（MSCI Emerging Markets）和追蹤美國以外發達國家市場的EAFE指數雙雙下跌了近5％。具有諷刺意味的是，除美國以外全球唯一一個表現上佳的市場——中國大陸股市的上證綜指（上漲了45％），也是唯一一個美國投資者無法進入的市場。

Over 10- and 20-year stretches, geographic and asset class diversification have proven beneficial for returns and risk management. Unfortunately, you are not guaranteed to see the benefits of such a strategy during any 12-month period. In an era of 140-character writing and two-minute video, should we be surprised that investors have trouble judging the success of their portfolios over long periods?

從10年和20年的時間跨度來看，地域和資產類別的多元化已經證明對投資回報和風險管理有益。不幸的是，在12個月內，不一定能看到此種戰略的好處。在如今這個140字微博消息和2分鐘短視頻盛行的時代，投資者不能以長期的表現來判斷其投資組合的成敗，又有何奇怪？

It was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair…

這是充滿希望的春天，也是令人絕望的寒冬……

One of the most discouraging aspects of 2014 for professional investors has been the start-and-stop nature of the recovery. We coasted into January on a trend of strengthening economic reports. Within a few weeks, a nationwide snowstorm seemingly drove the economic data off the side of the road.

對專業投資者而言，2014年最令人沮喪的一點是，美國經濟復甦時斷時續。2014年1月，經濟領域捷報頻傳。然而，在短短几周內，一場暴風雪席捲全美，各種經濟數據似乎也因此停擺。

Market watchers were forced to digest the reality of negative 2.9% GDP for the first quarter of the year. All of a sudden, everyone’s forecasts seemed too rosy—or at least too smooth—compared to the lumpy reality. This led to a raft of second-guessing on the timing of the Fed’s eventual exit from its bond-buying stimulus program. We went from confidence to WTF? in a space of a few weeks, with all the asset class rotations and market corrections that come along with a fresh bout of uncertainty.

市場觀察人士被迫接受一季度美國GDP負增長2.9％這一現實。突然間，同波詭雲譎的現實相比，所有人的預測似乎都過於樂觀，至少是過於平穩。這導致人們紛紛猜測美聯儲最終退出其債券購買計劃的時機。短短几周內，我們從信心滿滿變成了垂頭喪氣，同時，伴隨着不確定性的再次來襲，資產類別的交替以及市場調整也隨之而來。

Despite the fact that each market rebound ended up as a V-shaped affair, each successive rally was carried out with less and less individual stock participation. Glaring divergences between winners and losers, large caps and small caps, preoccupied the commentariat for most of the spring and summer. Deflationary concerns from Europe and the Japanese technical recession further confounded analysts, as Treasury yields and inflation indicators in the U.S. were driven lower despite the improving domestic economy.

儘管每輪市場反彈最終都呈V形，每次連續的漲勢中，個股的參與越來越少。今年春夏兩季的絕大部分時間裏，時事分析評論員們都專注於贏家與輸家、大盤股和小盤股之間的明顯差異。歐洲的通縮擔憂以及日本的技術性衰退，使得分析師們愈加困惑，儘管美國經濟正在好轉，美國國庫券收益率和通脹指標卻雙雙下行。

Put succinctly, there was no way to describe or explain the crosscurrents of 2014. And I’m not convinced that the benefit of hindsight will make what happened this year any clearer years from now.

簡言之，2014年種種相反的趨勢無法描述和解釋。我也不信，多年之後，人們憑藉後見之明，能將今年發生的種種事情看得更清楚。

We had everything before us, we had nothing before us…

我們的前路應有盡有，我們的前路一無所有……

While the S&P 500 is on track to conclude another stellar year of gains, those who sought to beat the index are poised to finish with a more dubious distinction. According to Lipper, 85% of all active stock mutual fund managers had been trailing their benchmarks through the end of November. In a typical year, there are nearly twice as many managers outperforming, with only around two thirds of funds struggling to catch up. Lipper says this is the worst year for active managers relative to the market in three decades.

在即將結束的2014年，標普500指數再次實現亮眼增長，而那些本欲跑贏該指數的基金經理們，表現則沒那麼出色。Lipper公司稱，截止11月底，85％的活躍股票型共同基金經理業績低於標普500指數。而在正常的年份裏，跑贏該指數的基金經理比例是今年的兩倍，也就是說，通常只有約三分之二的基金表現不如標普500指數。Lipper公司稱，這是30年來活躍基金經理相對大盤表現最差的一年。

Stock pickers encountered difficulty this year in part because of concentration at the top of the market. Just five stocks—Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, Johnson & Johnson, Microsoft, and Intel— accounted for 20% of the market’s gains. If you weren’t at least equally weighted toward them, you had virtually no shot at making up for missing their enormous, index-driving gains. A majority of the market’s stocks did not perform nearly as well. According to the Leuthold Group, only 30% of S&P 1500 stocks posted gains exceeding the index itself. You’d have to go back to 1999 to see anything like this.

今年選股遇到困難，部分原因在於市場頂部高度集中。蘋果、伯克希爾o哈撒韋、強生、微軟和英特爾這五隻股票佔去了市場漲幅的20％。如果你未持有上述股票，幾乎就沒有機會分享這場增長盛宴，而正是這幾家公司的增長推高了標普500指數。市場上大部分股票的表現要遜色得多。研究公司路佛集團稱，標普1500綜合指數成分股中，僅有30％的個股跑贏了該指數。上次出現這樣的景象，那還是1999年的事。

Fund shareholders weren’t wasting any time reacting to this year of disappointment. Collectively, they’ve added just $35 billion to active stock-picking funds in the last 11 months, less than a quarter of the $162 billion they added in 2013, which was the first year of positive flows for the industry since 2007. This is not to say that they were sitting still. ETFs and passive index funds took in over $206 billion in net deposits through Thanksgiving, and Vanguard surpassed the $3 trillion mark sometime in late summer. Investors seem to have decided that they’d rather bet on the horses than the jockeys, after all.

在令人失望的2014年裏，基金投資者們沒有太多的動作。總體而言，過去11個月中，主動選股基金僅新增了350億美元資金，還不到2013年同期新增資金（1620億美元）的四分之一。2013年是該行業自2007年以來首次實現資金淨流入。不過，這並不是說基金行業毫無作爲。截止感恩節，交易所交易基金（ETFs）和被動指數型基金吸納了2060多億美元淨存款，行業領先者先鋒集團管理的基金規模在今年夏末突破了3萬億美元大關。投資者們似乎已經決定，與其把寶押在“騎手”身上，不如直接把賭注押在“賽馬”身上。

We were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way

我們都將直上天堂，我們都將直下地獄

The malaise was not confined to those picking individual stock winners. Through December 1, aggregate hedge fund returns trailed the market to the point of farce. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, hedge funds were up an average of 2% on the year, just barely offering the coupon rate of a risk-free 10-year Treasury note. Over 1,000 funds are on track to close down in 2014, the worst year for liquidations since 2009.

萎靡不振的不光是那些挑選個股的基金。截止12月1日，對衝基金整體回報嚴重落後於市場。彭博收集的數據顯示，對衝基金平均同比上漲了2％，其回報率也就勉強趕上無風險10年期美國國債的票面利率。2014年將有1000多隻基金倒閉，是自2009年以來破產清算最多的一年。

Among the gargantuan hedge funds that make up a majority of the industry’s assets under management, dispersion of returns shot up to notable levels. And for every big winner, like William Ackman’s Pershing Square, there was a big loser to counterbalance it, like John Paulson’s Advantage Fund. Investors choose hedge funds for their “non-correlated returns,” meaning a tendency to move opposite from the general market’s direction. They certainly got such returns this year, unfortunately.

幾家大型對衝基金的資產規模，佔據了該行業的大半江山。各家的回報率相差巨大。每個像威廉o阿克曼旗下潘興廣場那樣的大贏家，都對應着一個像約翰o保爾森旗下優勢基金那樣的大輸家。投資者選擇對衝基金，是衝着其“非相關收益”，意即與大盤走向背道而行的趨勢。今年，他們絕對是獲得了“逆市”的收益，可惜是在大盤表現出色的情況下“逆市”。

Financial advisors and asset allocators who had been hoping to see some benefit this year from tactical strategies were also not spared the punishment of a capricious market. Of the top three tactical strategies in the country (Mainstay Marketfield, Good Harbor U.S. Tactical Core, F-Squared Premium AlphaSector Index), two had nearly imploded with double-digit losses while the third found itself under SEC investigation for misleading the public about its historical returns. The other giant tactical manager, Schwab’s $9 billion Windhaven Diversified Growth product, looks to end 2014 with a return close to zero. So much for tactics.

那些原本希望今年憑藉戰術策略獲得些利益的財務顧問和資產配置人員，也在反覆無常的市場中栽了跟頭。全美前三位的戰術策略產品中，有兩款產品幾乎因爲高達兩位數的虧損而崩盤，還有一款產品則因爲向公衆誤報自身歷史回報率而受到美國證交會調查。另一家戰術產品巨頭嘉信理財旗下90億美元的Windhaven Diversified Growth產品，2014年的回報率幾乎爲零。戰術策略原來不過如此。

In short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.

簡言之，那個時代與當今時代極爲相似，一些最譁衆取寵的權威人士，要麼將其捧上天，要麼把其貶得一文不值。

When Dickens wrote about the French Revolution in A Tale of Two Cities, he did it with nearly a century of hindsight. Here, at the end of December, I don’t enjoy that luxury. As such, some of the trends I’ve written here are likely to remain in force for the foreseeable future, while others may have already begun to fade. As one of this period’s “noisiest authorities,” I insist only on your receiving this review with just one caveat in mind: Past performance does not guarantee future results.

狄更斯在《雙城記》中描寫法國大革命時，距離事件發生已有近一個世紀。而我則是在今年12月就回顧盤點這一年。因此，我在此描述的某些趨勢，可能將在可預見的未來繼續存在，而另一些趨勢則可能已經開始減弱。作爲當今時代“最譁衆取寵的權威人士”之一，我只要求各位在閱讀這篇評論文章時記住一點：過去的業績並不能保證將來的表現。