人民幣能否跟上中國崛起步伐 State of the renminbi: many rivers to cross

The renminbi has come a long way in the past two decades. As recently as 1994, foreign visitors to China were still consigned to using special “foreign exchange certificates” rather than local currency. Only select stores and restaurants were permitted to accept them.

過去二十年，人民幣取得了長足進展。就在1994年，外國遊客來華還不得不使用特殊的“外匯券”，而非本地貨幣。只有指定的商店和餐廳才被允許接收外匯券。

Progress has been even swifter since July 2005, when the Chinese government announced it was removing the currency’s tight peg to the US dollar.

自2005年7月以來，人民幣的發展進程進一步加快。當時中國政府宣佈，解除人民幣與美元的掛鉤機制。

Since then the renminbi has appreciated more than 30 per cent against the dollar and the central bank has scaled back its intervention in the foreign exchange market. Rmb trade settlement is rising, with 20 per cent of China’s merchandise trade settled in its own currency in 2014.

從那之後，人民幣對美元升值超過30%，中國央行也減少了對外匯市場的干預。人民幣貿易結算逐漸增加，2014年中國20%的商品貿易以人民幣結算。

Yet the recent boom-bust cycle in the Chinese stock market has renewed doubts among foreign investors about the wisdom of allocating large sections of their portfolios to renminbi assets.

不過，中國股市最近的牛熊轉換循環使外國投資者再次懷疑，將投資組合中的一大部分配置爲人民幣資產是否明智。

While most investors can accept market volatility, the government’s heavy-handed response, which has included a ban on sales of equities by big stockholders and trading suspensions affecting thousands of listed companies, has reminded investors that investing in China comes with political as well as financial risks. The prospect of being trapped in an unwanted investment due to ad hoc administrative intervention is not an enticing one.

儘管多數投資者可以接受市場波動，但中國政府的粗暴反應——包括禁止大股東拋售股票，以及讓上千家上市公司停牌——提醒了投資者，在中國投資既有金融風險，又有政治風險。由於臨時的行政干預而讓自己陷入不如意的投資之中，這種前景並不令人嚮往。

Yet the long-term trend is still towards increased foreign acceptance of the renminbi for both trade and investment.

不過，長期趨勢仍然是，外國對人民幣用於貿易和投資的接受度逐步提升。

Trade settlement has also facilitated the accumulation of renminbi outside China. Offshore renminbi centres, led by Hong Kong, have sprung up in financial areas such as Singapore, London and Frankfurt, allowing governments and a broad range of companies to issue renminbi bonds.

貿易結算還促進了人民幣在中國境外的積累。以香港爲首的離岸人民幣中心在新加坡、倫敦及法蘭克福等金融區逐漸興起，使得多國政府及許多公司可以發行人民幣債券。

Capital controls restricting portfolio investment into and out of China have also been on a loosening trend, notably through the launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong stock connect last November. Even as the International Monetary Fund considers whether to endorse the renminbi as an official reserve currency, more than 60 central banks have already invested in renminbi assets, according to Standard Chartered.

限制組合投資進出中國的資本管制也已經進入逐漸放鬆的趨勢，特別是藉助去年11月“滬港通”的開通。渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)表示，雖然國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)還在考慮是否將人民幣納入官方儲備貨幣，但目前已經有超過60家央行投資了人民幣資產。

In July, the central bank widened access to its vast domestic bond market for foreign central banks, sovereign wealth funds and multilateral financial institutions such as the World Bank. These institutions no longer require licences to invest in Chinese interbank bonds, as well as money market instruments such as repurchase agreements. Total foreign participation will still, however, be subject to a quota.

7月，中國央行向外國央行、主權財富基金和世界銀行(World Bank)等多邊金融機構，擴大了進入中國國內龐大債券市場的通道。這些機構投資中國銀行間債券、以及回購協議等貨幣市場工具時，不再需要特許證。然而，外國機構的整體參與仍然受制於配額。

Outbound foreign direct investment is now subject to greatly reduced regulation, as China encourages domestic companies to “go out”. Foreign mergers, acquisitions and greenfield investments by Chinese companies below a certain threshold, typically $100m, no longer require approval from the foreign exchange regulator.

隨着中國鼓勵國內企業“走出去”，如今中國國內企業對外直接投資面臨的監管大大減少。中國企業在進行低於某一門檻——通常爲1億美元——的對外併購、收購以及綠地投資時，不再需要獲得外匯監管機構的批准。

For inbound FDI, many sectors of the Chinese economy remain restricted to foreigners, or off limits entirely, but the approval process is easier than before for sectors where investment is allowed.

至於流入中國的外國直接投資，中國經濟中很多領域對外資仍然存在限制、或者完全禁入，但是在允許外國投資的領域，審批流程已經比之前簡化許多。

In addition, China is using the Shanghai free-trade zone to experiment with a “negative list” approach to foreign investment. Rather than stipulating specific areas as “encouraged”, “restricted”, or “forbidden” for foreigners, the negative list will specify those that are closed. Any sectors not on the list are assumed to be unrestricted.

此外，中國正利用上海自貿區來試驗對外資列出“負面清單”的做法。負面清單將明確列出對外資封閉的領域，而不是規定“鼓勵”、“限制”或“禁止”外資進入的特定領域。任何未出現在負面清單中的領域都被認爲是不受限制的。

Despite such progress, by many measures the Rmb remains a middling player in the global currency markets. In terms of global foreign-exchange turnover, it still trails the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar.

儘管取得了這些進展，但是人民幣在很多方面仍然是全球貨幣市場上的一箇中流選手。從全球外匯交易額看，人民幣仍然落後於墨西哥比索和加拿大元。

Interest and exchange rates, though freer than before, remain subject to government control. China has pledged to complete both interest-rate liberalisation and “basic” capital account convertibility by the end of 2015. But it is clear that Beijing’s definition of these terms still leaves plenty of room for government interference in the market.

人民幣利率和匯率雖然比以往更加自由化，但仍然受到政府控制。中國承諾在2015年底前實現利率自由化以及資本項目“基本”可兌換。但是，很明顯北京方面對這些術語的定義，仍然給政府幹預市場留有大量空間。

The market also lacks derivatives that would allow investors to hedge risk or make bearish bets. The interest-rate swaps market is relatively liquid, but more sophisticated tools such as cross-currency swaps remain thinly traded. Equity derivatives are still in their infancy, with futures and options only available on broad indexes, not individual shares.

中國市場還缺乏讓投資者可以對衝風險或做空的衍生品。利率掉期市場相對有流動性，但是諸如貨幣掉期等更加複雜的衍生品的交易量仍然很低。股票衍生品仍然處於萌芽階段，期貨和期權僅針對整體指數，而非個股。

Capital controls still severely restrict investor access to China’s onshore bond market. The increased access that central banks now enjoy does not extend to private-sector asset managers, who can only obtain access to the onshore market through the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor Programme (QFII) or its renminbi-denominated cousin, RQFII. Even once a QFII license is obtained, each asset manager is subject to a separate quota from the foreign exchange regulator. And for individuals, the domestic bond market remains completely off limits.

資本管制仍然嚴格限制着投資者進入中國境內債券市場的通道。外國央行如今享受的日益開放的投資通道，並未延伸至私人部門資產管理公司，後者只能通過合格境外機構投資者(QFII)或者與之類似的人民幣合格境外機構投資者(RQFII)計劃，獲得進入中國境內市場的通道。即便一朝獲得QFII資格，每家資產管理公司仍受制於外匯監管機構設置的單獨的配額。至於個人投資者，中國境內債券市場仍然完全屬於禁區。

For the bond market, access is easier. Foreign investors buying into the Chinese stock market using the stock connect do not need a licence, but many stocks remain off limits and quotas limit daily flows and overall investments. Moreover, the Chinese stock market’s recent bull run, followed by its sudden downward correction, has made many foreign investors wary of participating, even where regulations allow it.

對於股票市場來說，進入相對容易。利用滬港通投資於中國股市的外國投資者不需要許可證，但是很多股票仍然禁止他們買賣，而且配額限制着每日資金流以及整體投資。另外，中國股市最近的暴漲以及隨後的驟跌，令很多外國投資者對入市十分謹慎，即便監管允許進入。

Global index provider MSCI recently declined to add Chinese onshore stocks, known as A shares, to its benchmark emerging market indexes. Though they cited technical concerns about the ownership status of shares bought through the stock connect programme, many observers privately believe that MSCI’s decision was also motivated by investor concerns about the stock market’s reputation as a casino.

全球主要指數提供商MSCI明晟，最近決定暫不將中國內地股市（即A股）納入其新興市場基準指數。儘管他們聲稱是因爲技術上的擔憂，即通過滬港通購買的股票的所有權狀態，但很多觀察人士私下認爲，投資者對A股如賭場的擔憂也促成了MSCI的決定。

The addition of A shares to the indices would have triggered billions in fund inflows via funds that passively track them. Even before the share crash that began in late June, such a prospect made many of MSCI’s fund manager clients nervous.

將A股納入MSCI指數，將通過被動追蹤這些指數的基金引發數十億美元的資金流入。即使是在始於6月中旬的A股暴跌前，這種前景也讓很多MSCI的基金管理公司客戶感到緊張。

As China proceeds cautiously but inexorably with financial reform, the importance of the renminbi is bound to increase. But whether the currency will ever take on an importance commensurate with China’s status as the world’s largest economy (at purchasing power parity) is still an open question.

隨着中國謹慎而又堅定地推進金融改革，人民幣的重要性勢必會增加。但是，人民幣是否會取得與中國作爲世界最大經濟體（按購買力平價計算）的地位相稱的重要性，仍然是一個尚無定論的問題。