美聯儲兩名理事公開反對加息
Market concerns are rising over divisions at the top of the Federal Reserve on when to lift interest rates, casting fresh uncertainty over the US central bank’s strategy for withdrawing its monetary stimulus.
令市場越發擔憂的是，美聯儲(Fed)最高層官員在加息時機方面的分歧，爲這家美國央行撤回其貨幣刺激的戰略增加了新的不確定性。The divisions burst into the open this week when two Fed board members signalled that they oppose a near-term increase in interest rates, questioning the approach adopted by chair Janet Yellen amid divisions over the outlook for inflation.
本週，這些分歧公開化了。兩名美聯儲理事表示，他們反對在近期加息，在各方對通脹前景意見不一之際，這一表態對美聯儲主席珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)採取的姿態提出了質疑。Larry Fink, chief executive of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, warned yesterday that uncertainty was leading to heightened volatility.
全球最大資產管理公司貝萊德(BlackRock)的首席執行官拉里•芬克(Larry Fink)昨日警告稱，不確定性正在加劇市場波動。
“Some of the official authorities are guilty of, instead of being a calming influence, through their mixed messages, inflaming the markets,” he said.
“某些官方權威人物的問題在於，他們非但沒有發揮安撫人心的影響，反而通過矛盾的信息，加劇了市場波動，”他說。A disappointing US retail sales report, showing headline sales rose just 0.1 per cent in August, further damped traders’ expectations of an early rate rise.
令人失望的美國零售銷售報告——顯示8月的整體銷售增長率僅爲0.1%——進一步降低了交易員們對於美聯儲會盡早加息的預期。Fed board member Daniel Tarullo said in a CNBC interview on Tuesday that his expectation was that it was not appropriate to raise rates this year, joining fellow governor Lael Brainard in a wait-and-see posture.
週二，美聯儲理事丹尼爾•塔魯洛(Daniel Tarullo)在接受CNBC採訪時表示，他預計今年內加息是不合適的，他由此加入另一位理事萊爾•佈雷納德(Lael Brainard)的行列，認爲應該採取觀望姿態。Roberto Perli of Cornerstone Macro said differences between regional Fed presidents were not uncommon. “The novelty here is that both Tarullo and Brainard are members of the Fed’s board of governors and as such supposedly close to Yellen,” he said.
Cornerstone Macro的羅伯託•佩爾利(Roberto Perli)表示，美聯儲地區行長之間出現分歧是常有的事。他說，“這次的新奇之處在於，塔魯洛和佈雷納德都是美聯儲理事，因此理應跟耶倫關係密切。”Both policymakers appeared to raise doubts about an assumption underpinning Ms Yellen’s policymaking approach — namely that, as the US approaches full employment, inflation will accelerate.
這兩位政策制定者似乎對支撐耶倫政策路徑的一項假設提出了質疑。這項假設是，隨着美國接近充分就業狀況，通脹率將加速上升。Mr Perli said: “The fact that they essentially called into question Yellen’s speech where she made the case for lift-off this year is remarkable and plunges Fed communication back into confusion.”
佩爾利說：“實際上，他們質疑了耶倫在講話中對今年加息的論證，這一事實令人矚目，使美聯儲的對外溝通回到混亂狀態。”Ryan Sweet, Moody’s senior economist, said the “discordant” rhetoric was significant. “Yellen has time to forge a consensus but airing the officials’ disagreements publicly can have unintended consequences.”
穆迪(Moody’s)高級經濟學家賴安•斯威特(Ryan Sweet)表示，這種“不協調的”言論意義重大。“耶倫有時間凝聚共識，但官員們公開表達不同意見，可能產生意想不到的後果。”Interest rate futures now imply that investors see an even chance that the Fed, having left rates unchanged at its September meeting, will hold rates until March, according to Bloomberg data. Few expect a move at this month’s meeting but the position at the Fed’s December gathering is harder to predict.
彭博(Bloomberg)數據表明，眼下的利率期貨市場行情暗示，美聯儲在今年9月的議息會議上維持利率不變之後、將把當前利率水平保持至明年3月的機率爲五成。很少有人預計美聯儲會在本月議息會議上採取行動，但12月會議的結果更難預料。
