短線觀點 A股像2000年的納斯達克
Financial history may not be poetry, but the pattern of booms and busts has a certain rhythm. It is rare, though, that it matches quite so well as two tech bubbles separated by 15 years, those of China today and the Nasdaq in 2000.
金融史或許不是詩歌，但其繁榮和蕭條卻遵循着某種韻律。不過，像下面這種如此“押韻”的情況還不多：這是兩個科技泡沫，彼此相差15年，其中一個是目前的中國股市，另一個是2000年的納斯達克(Nasdaq)。It is not just that both sped up as they inflated, or that private investors piled in, or that money was easy. These features are common to bubbles across the centuries. Both had a wave of IPOs as companies tried to take advantage of seemingly insatiable demand for overvalued stocks, too, but high prices always generate their own supply.
之所以這麼說，不僅是因爲這兩個股市都在膨脹過程中加速上漲、私人投資者都大舉涌入、資金都非常寬裕——這些都是幾個世紀以來歷次泡沫的共同特點——而且還因爲這兩個股市都出現了首次公開發行(IPO)浪潮。在這股浪潮中，企業試圖從人們對估值過高股票的貌似無止境的需求中漁利，但股價走高卻總是引起追漲。
Such a coincidence should not matter. But the pattern of the rise and fall does matter, and is common to lots of bubbles: an accelerating boom punctuated by big drops, with sharply higher volatility after the bust as hope and fear intensify. Broadly speaking, the further prices move from measures of value, the more they trade on pure sentiment — and so the more the patterns are likely to repeat, human nature being more or less constant.
這種巧合應該不重要。但其漲跌模式卻真的很重要，而且與很多泡沫的漲跌模式都相同：加速上漲被暴跌打斷，暴跌後波動性劇烈上升，因爲希望和恐懼都在加劇。總的來說，股票的價格越背離價值指標，其交易就越基於純粹的情緒，模式重演的機率也就越大（假定人性基本不變）。
Still, there are big differences. In the main, Chinese domestic stocks are nowhere near as expensive as the Nasdaq was at its peak (although the tech-heavy ChiNext median stock is a pricey 51 times estimated earnings, and its two largest more than 100 times). China’s authorities have stepped in more quickly than in the US, too, with monetary easing, newspaper articles talking up shares and yesterday, a cut in stock exchange transaction fees.
然而，兩者之間仍存在巨大的不同。大體而言，中國國內股票遠不如峯值水平的納斯達克那樣昂貴（儘管科技股雲集的中國創業板(ChiNext)的股票的預期市盈率中值高達51倍、而且兩隻市值最大的股票的預期市盈率超過100倍）。中國政府出手干預的速度也快於美國，干預手段包括放鬆貨幣政策、利用報紙文章託市，而且昨日還下調了股票交易費用。Even after a fall of a quarter, by Tuesday’s low, China’s stocks face further risks. The heavy use of margin finance could lead to a downward spiral of margin calls and forced selling. Extraordinary daily price swings make shares look even less attractive, with 5 per cent moves in one direction or the other, and sometimes both, becoming normal.
儘管週二的低點相對不久前的高點已跌去四分之一，中國股市仍面臨進一步的風險。融資交易的大量使用可能導致追繳保證金和強制平倉的惡性循環。異乎尋常的盤中價格震盪，降低了股票的吸引力，上漲或下跌5%（而且有時是漲跌都這麼大幅度）變成了家常便飯。Most importantly, the loss of upward momentum has eliminated the main reason for buying shares. If there are no greater fools to sell to, shares have to trade on fundamental value — and bargain hunters are unlikely to step in to offer support at anywhere near these valuations.
最重要的是，失去上漲勢頭使得購買股票的主要理由不復存在。如果沒有更大的傻瓜來接盤，股票只能根據基本面價值交易，逢低吸納者不太可能在估值如此之高時入場提供支撐。
