短線觀點 美國股市喜中帶憂
Another record high for US equities and the markets’ sharp rebound in recent weeks do not necessarily inspire confidence that the world’s largest economy can fully escape global headwinds.
美國股市在近幾周大幅反彈後再創新高，但這未必就能讓人們相信，美國這個世界最大經濟體能夠徹底躲開席捲全球的經濟逆風。Much has been made by Wall Street about how the US economy can prosper and stand alone as the eurozone and Japan face intractable problems, China wrestles with slower growth, and the outlook dims for the likes of Russia and Brazil. Against this unsettling backdrop, the argument runs that US equities look good and stand to attract foreign buyers in part because the rising dollar helps boost the value of American holdings for overseas investors.
華爾街極力鼓吹美國經濟能在歐元區和日本面臨棘手問題、中國疲於應對增長放緩以及俄羅斯和巴西等國前景轉暗之際保持一枝獨秀。在令人不安的大背景下，持這種觀點的人認爲，美國股市之所以欣欣向榮並能吸引外國買家，部分原因在於美元走強有助於提升海外投資者所持美國資產的價值。
Drill a little deeper into the S&P 500’s performance and one discovers a less than soothing picture. Namely, the market’s rebound has been led by defensive sectors, notably utilities, consumer staples and healthcare stocks. Hardly a ringing endorsement of a robust US economy. Indeed, energy, materials and consumer discretionary sectors remain notable laggards during the current quarter, a performance that also typifies their behaviour this year.
更深入地分析標普500指數(S&P 500)成分股的表現，你就會發現，情況並不那麼讓人樂觀。換句話說，市場的反彈是由防禦性板塊拉動的，尤其是公共事業、必需消費品和醫療保健股。這很難算是美國經濟表現強勁的有力證明。事實上，能源、原材料和非必需消費品板塊本季度的表現仍明顯落後於大盤，而且這種表現今年以來簡直是家常便飯。
Such a divergence among the largest S&P sectors shows investors are not backing those areas of the market that would signal the US economy is gaining altitude. The outperformance by defensive sectors suggests that the message being sent by low long-term Treasury yields has been heard by equity investors.
標普500指數主要板塊之間出現的這種分化，顯示出投資者支持的並非那些標誌着美國經濟正在走強的市場領域。防禦性板塊的突出表現說明，股票投資者已經領會到了長期美國國債收益率偏低釋放出的信號。For all the cheering about the current earnings season surpassing expectations, albeit from the usual low bar, the outlook for coming quarters has slipped. While third-quarter earnings have seen companies largely avoid fallout from a stronger dollar and weaker global growth hurting earnings, the downbeat guidance has left a mark.
眼下正值財報季，儘管發佈出來的財報情況好於之前的預期（當然預期原本就不高）、令投資者歡欣鼓舞，但未來幾個季度的前景已開始變得有些黯淡。三季度企業利潤基本沒有受到美元走強、全球增長走弱的衝擊，但悲觀的盈利指引給人們留下了深刻的印象。Reflecting their poor price performance, energy and materials led the downward profit revisions for the S&P 500 as sliding oil and commodity prices weighed heavily.
石油和大宗商品價格下跌對能源和原材料股影響明顯，這兩個板塊的股票是標普500指數成分股中利潤預期下調幅度最大的，它們的股價表現也不佳。Equity bulls extol the boost for consumers’ wallets from cheaper petrol prices. However, the internal dynamics of the broader market suggest investors are still waiting for stronger sales growth that only comes from a sustained recovery in spending.
看漲股市的投資者稱，石油價格下跌讓消費者的錢包鼓了起來。然而，大盤內部各板塊的表現反映出，投資者仍在等待銷售增長走強，而這隻能來自於消費的持續復甦。
