短線觀點 中國股市的明顯泡沫

At the start of last year, Chinese stocks were cheap and only 200 were valued highly enough — had they been American — to have qualified for the blue-chip S&P 500 index. Today, Chinese stocks are (very) expensive, and 482 are worth more than the smallest US blue-chip.

去年初，中國股票比較便宜，僅有200支股票的市值高到相當於“藍籌”的標普500指數(S&P 500 index)成份股的程度。時至今日，中國的股票已很貴，有482支股票的市值超過了市值最低的美國藍籌股。

Among them is Beijing Baofeng Technology, which has produced perhaps the wackiest share price performance in history. In 33 trading days since its float in Shenzhen, it has risen by the daily maximum on 32 of them, for a 2,827 per cent gain on no news.

北京暴風科技(Beijing Baofeng Technology)就是其中的一員。暴風科技的股價表現或許是史上最爲瘋狂的。在深圳證交所上市後的33個交易日中，這支股票有32天漲停，在沒有任何消息面因素刺激的情況下上漲了2827%。

In the process, Baofeng has gone from a sub-$200m small cap to a valuation of more than $4bn, equivalent to America’s 494th-placed company and almost as large as US Steel. It makes a video player, and, at least last year, not much money: it is valued at 494 times last year’s earnings.

在此過程中，暴風科技從一支市值不到2億美元的低市值股變成了一支市值逾40億美元的股票，幾乎與美國鋼鐵公司(US Steel)的市值一樣大，如果在美國的話可算作市值第494大的公司。暴風科技的產品是一款視頻播放器，而且至少在去年，該公司還不怎麼賺錢：該公司現在的市值是去年盈利的494倍。

Baofeng is merely the frothiest of what looks increasingly like a “babyccino” market: like the children’s version of a cappuccino, China’s market is still missing the crucial ingredient for the eventual caffeine jolt: profits.

暴風科技只是這個看上去越來越像“寶貝奇諾”（babyccino，給年紀小不宜喝咖啡的孩子喝的起泡奶——譯者注）的股市中泡沫最多的一個：就如兒童版的卡布奇諾(cappuccino)一樣，中國股市依然缺少最終可帶來咖啡因般刺激的關鍵原料——利潤。

The bubbles are particularly extreme in Shenzhen, and in technology: the median tech stock traded in the city is priced at 65 times forward earnings (the median Nasdaq tech stock is at 19 times). There are exceptions. Banks, which make up more of the Shanghai market, are still priced for bad news. Still, Longview Economics calculates that large state-owned enterprises have performed very similarly to large completely private companies in the CSI 300 index over the past year.

深圳股市科技板塊的泡沫尤其極端：深市科技股的預期市盈率中值爲65倍（納斯達克(Nasdaq)科技股市盈率中值是19倍）。不過也有例外。作爲上海股市主力的銀行股，仍受到負面消息的拖累。而Longview Economics的計算顯示，過去一年裏，滬深300指數成份股裏的大型國企與大型民企的股價表現非常類似。

There is some logic amid the fizz. Shenzhen-listed companies’ profits are forecast to grow a little slower than US biotechs, and are priced a little lower.

這種泡沫當中有一定的邏輯。深市上市公司的利潤增速預計略低於美國生物科技股，估值也略低一些。

But those who look for logic are probably wasting their time. Following the latest widely-predicted rate cut, one in eight Shenzhen stocks leapt by the 10 per cent daily limit, as did one in 12 of Shanghai’s. Logic was present: tech stocks, with profits in the distant future, benefit most from a lower discount rate, and their shares led the way up.

但那些尋求邏輯的人很可能是在浪費時間。在大多數人預料之中的最新一次降息後，深市八分之一的股票漲停，滬市十二分之一的股票漲停。邏輯如下：雖然科技股實現盈利還很遙遠，但它們最受益於貼現率下降，因此它們的股票領漲。

In reality, though, easier money means more leverage for punters, which means higher prices only as long as the froth lasts. As the chart shows, the last bubble lasted a very long time indeed. Sip with care.

但在現實中，資金寬鬆意味着投機者會加大槓桿，這意味着只要泡沫持續下去，股價就肯定會上漲。如圖所示，上一次泡沫確實持續了很長時間。這杯“寶貝奇諾”可以帶着小心一小口一小口地喝。